kelwin and roy

It’s All About Recovery Play Today

Kelwin & Roy Comfort Delgro , , , , , , , ,
24th March, 2022, 7:51 PM

It’s All About Recovery Play Today

It was a good day out in our Singapore market as Prime Minister Lee highlighted a few new measures with regards to adapting and living with Covid-19. Group sizes doubled to 10 and less testing for boarders as Singapore continues to open up. Also, more are encouraged to start returning back to office.

With these new relaxed measures, we saw recovery stocks came into full force. Stocks like ComfortDelgro, SATS, SIA Engineering all came roaring back to life! SATS made it to the top gainer under the STI component.

So what’s next? What are some of the targets we have for some of these stocks? Let’s start with ComfortDelgro first.

 

As govt encourages up to 75% of the employee to return back to office, this would have an increase demand in transport services. Trains, taxi, private hirers would see an increase in demand in the coming weeks. For Comfortdelgro, we might see if move towards $1.55 as it looks to break that $1.50 resistance. The mid term target is $1.58 which is around that gap resistance too. An Alert was sent to our clients on 16th March when Comfort was trading at $1.40.

SATS

SATS saw a nice upswing of 5% just today enabling us to hit our first upside target of $4.10. We’re just 1 cent shy of our second target which we believe it’ll hit very soon! As air and sea travel continue to open up , SATS would be a beneficiary of these opening up. $4.29 and $4.41 are the eventual targets we’re looking at.

SIA Engineering

SIA Engineering is another stock we spotted and alerted our active traders just THIS MORNING! It manage to hit our first target of $2.32 and with an increased in volume today we might see the momentum carry on for alittle while more. Next upside target we’re looking at is $2.39 then $2.46.

While there are other recovery stocks like SIA, SBS and hospitality stocks like Ascott Trust, FraserHospitality. But of course we’ll have to be selective about the stocks we choose as there is not much point in sending everything and clients not being able to take action on any. So with our stringent criteria, the above are the few which we have selected for our clients.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

Are Electronics Stocks Rebounding?

Kelwin & Roy AEM , , , , , , ,
23rd March, 2022, 6:23 PM

Are Electronics Stocks Rebounding?

As market continue to roar back our local electronic stocks are looking back in play too.

These are four of the electronic stock that we’re looking at and one of it has already hit our first target.

UMS has built a nice base around the $1.10 level  and has seen a nice rebound. Current resistance at $1.22 which might see it break above in the coming days as momentum continues to build. There are some levels which we have drawn for the upside resistance!

 

AEM actually formed a double bottom around 4th march but due to the war in Ukraine and the rise in interest rates, we decided to hold back as there could have been more downside for AEM. But news of Temasek Holdings increasing their stake in AEM saw a gap up which we didn’t chase it. It crossed the 20ema which was a positive sign but as we were having a few more counters on hand, we gave this a missed! AEM does look like it has more room on the upside to that downtrend we drew and maybe even to $4.89. Volume is increasing which could help drive the momentum up.

 

Frencken hasn’t moved much and we’re looking at it with interest. =) Volume increased with a small bar! Watching out tomorrow.

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Kelwin&Roy

 

Wilmar – [$5 In Sight? ]

Kelwin & Roy Wilmar , , , , , ,
23rd March, 2022, 2:19 PM

Wilmar – [$5 In Sight? ]

Wilmar broke out of its $4.77 horizontal resistance line and moved up further. We’re seeing a re-test of this resistance turn support and if it manages to hold steady, we might see Wilmar testing the round number resistance of $5. There was a huge volume increase yesterday and with today’s pullback on lighter volume is considered healthy to us.

Wilmar has been a counter we’ve been eyeing since 2 months ago in Feb was it was just trading at $4.43. It has since then moved up over 10% and might be looking to challenge the $5 resistance which more profit taking might come in. Looking out for that!

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th March, 2022, 4:32 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Two very important announcements  took place over the week which was China coming up to pledge support for the markets and Fed announcing rate hike and the future hikes that is to come. All in all, it was a crazy week as market saw a nice recovery throughout.

HSI

Paying a little more attention to this particular market as China has come up to pledge support for the market and would soon wind down on the regulatory front. It also pledge help to support companies listed overseas as delisting concerns sent HK tech stocks plummeting through the week. This also came on the back when JPMorgan China Internet analysts Alex Yao and team said this sector is “univestable” for the next 6-12 months. And before you know it, the market rallied over 16%. =)

So, how Hong Kong Market bottomed? That’s the question we’ve been getting throughout the week. In a nutshell, nobody knows BUT with further investigation, we can probably see a change in trend to the upside and these are some of the points for us to see if it has bottomed.

  1. Moving Averages , a good way to tell a trend is by looking at the moving averages. For now, we can see that the 50ema is still above the 20ma which still signal a downtrend. WAITING for a crossover of the 20 over the 50 for a confirmation in trend change.
  2. News of China supporting the market on Wednesday which might now help to build a base around the 18200 mark.
  3. For a sign of market bottom, a re-test near the low would show sign of strength and this could then provide a higher low in the making.
  4. Also the next bounce up should be higher than the 20ema of around 21550 to provide a higher swing high.

When we see these in play, we would then be more confident of a market bottom.

On a side note, don’t be too obsessed in finding the bottom as we all KNOW by now, nobody can find that bottom. Once might be lucky and the good old dollar cost average AND proper allocation into individual stock. So no real point in mentioning hey, i managed to grab Alibaba at HKD$73 or Tencent at $300. If you consistently are able to do that, PLEASE give me a call, you got my number. =)

Like an naggy parent, invest into QUALITY stocks and even with a downfall, you can still sleep in peace at night. UNLESS you have wrongly allocated into a stock then you probably won’t sleep that well.

STI

We’re pleased with our alerts on the Singapore market for the last 2 months even though HK & US were down, we managed to achieve a high 90% accuracy in our alerts to our clients. With fed increasing the interest rate, it is no surprise that LOCAL BANKS have moved up after the announcement. We’re glad we have positioned our clients for this ride once again.

Electronic stocks are also looking for a rebound but we will want to be nimble for these stocks. More upside for our STI might be seen from the chart above.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market, Straits times index , , , ,
13th March, 2022, 4:20 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will be meeting this week and we’re most likely going to see an increase in rates. What is more important is the fed’s posture, how many times they’re looking at for hike and how fast. An increase in march is more or less a given only by 0.25% or 0.5%. With inflation at sky high, fed is also under pressure to tame inflation.

With the war that is happening, this has really changed the game plan and even the outlook of the economy. With the ongoing sanctions, oil prices increasing this has increased the  chances of a bear market. The increase in commodity prices will have ripple effects on the economy and markets could see a slow down for the time being. We wouldn’t want to use too much leverage in such times as the chances of a bear market has increased.

Key Events to Watch For 

Development over in Ukraine is key as its hard to tell how this war will end and how long more will the fighting carry on. Markets continue to remain on edge as this war does look different from the others.

Eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March and decision on rate hike will be announced on Thursday morning 17th March singapore time. Near term volatility is expected.

Reduced leverage, stick to your trading plan with a tight stop loss. Now is not the time to be aggressive or a hero.

Market continues to be near the extreme fear region which investor might want to take advantage of.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Singapore market performing the best for us with most of our Singapore targets hitting their targets despite the negative market sentiments. We’re cautious this week as Fed is set to increase interest rates hence for trading position we wouldn’t be aggressive but would rather adopt a wait and see approach.

HSI 

Norway sovereign fund’s offloading Li Ning is triggering some worries in the HK markets, tech companies reporting lower results due to regulations, US delisting fears for dual listing China companies, Covid cases increasing both in mainland china and HK. Its a never ending list of fear and uncertainty for the HK market. It is possible for a test of around 20k for HK before some bargain hunting comes in. Indicators are currently oversold too. Trading has been tough in HK market and we haven’t been giving any alerts for the HK markets for while. Waiting for a more stability in HK first.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
6th March, 2022, 4:46 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another rollercoaster week as fighting rages on. One can only hope and wish for fighting to stop and parties to come back to the negotiation tables. As there is a cease fire going on and talks to resumes on Monday, we can pray that it will be one that is fruitful and not just to buy time and nothing good comes out of it.

Adding fuel to the fire, eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March regarding interest rate hike which might cause some near term volatility again.

Lastly, the annual meetings of two of China’s top political bodies has commenced this weekend. The economic and legislative decisions made at these meetings will provide a roadmap for China’s economic and social development in 2022 and are therefore of high importance to any player in the China market.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to keep tabs on the fighting and development in Ukraine while also keeping track of the impending rising interest rates.

Thursday – Initial Jobless claim, Core CPI numbers ( The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.) Take note as market might react to this too.

The Fear & Greed Index is at extreme FEAR now which we think is once again an opportunity to scale in rather than FLEEING. Of course remember to scale in in batches and not go in all at once. Nobody knows when the market will bottom.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Didn’t get the rebound that we were anticipating but the interesting thing was that the stocks that we have selected all produced positive gains! STI currently supported at around 3215, looking for this to hold before any rebound. BANKS are starting to looking juicy after the sell down, its on our radar now!

S&P 500

Seeing some rebound at the 4290 area with a hammer candlestick which could be positive for some rebound. S&P 500 has corrected about 14% and that 4110 remains critical. The week ahead still hinges on the war and interest rates and for traders you might want to scale back on your lot size. Market is not stable yet. Although we are looking for some upside this week, do ensure for a proper set up before entering. The near term resistance is around 4461.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq still not out of the woods and still facing selling pressure. We might see it move down to 13471 level first as rising interest rate might spook the tech stocks once again. Waiting for a more stable structure to form and a nice candle to form before taking further trading action.

HSI 

Last but not least but one of the most disappointing market for the year, is our HSI. Started well for the week but due to geo political events and more regulatory measures from China, this has really put a dampen on the HSI. We might see it move to 21138 level in the coming week and there we might see more bargain hunting come around. China’s meeting this week also sets the tone to where the HSI might be heading. Don’t give up on this fella yet!

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

First Resources – [ Commodities Boom, First Thing To Do Now]

Kelwin & Roy First Resources , , , ,
3rd March, 2022, 7:23 PM

First Resources – [ Commodities Boom, First Thing To Do Now]

Chart Source: AdvisorX 3rd march 2022

As the commodity boom continues, palm counters counters continue their rally. Due to the fighting in Ukraine, this has given the rally more legs as disruption, shortages and sanctions send prices rocketing. As prices move up and traders get excited, there is one thing to do before entering a trade.

Don’t get carried away with soaring prices and chase without any trade plan. It is always very dangerous to just  enter a trade purely on momentum and without any proper entry and stop loss as profit taking could happen any time.

Remember to look out for potential support and resistance and not to enter at the resistance without realizing it. We have drawn some of the support and resistance for first resources but of course if you’re like our clients who have been informed 2 weeks ago when First Resources was at $1.68 then this might be a place to take some profit.

First Resources has hit multiple upside targets moving up 20% which is very good in our view. So taking some profit now would probably be a wise thing. As the commodities continue to move up in the long run, remember to define your time horizonal.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Yzj ShipBldg – [ What’s Next After A Long Consolidation ]

Kelwin & Roy Yzj Shipbldg , , , , , ,
2nd March, 2022, 5:51 PM

Yzj ShipBldg – [ What’s Next After A Long Consolidation ]

Chart Source: AdvisorXs 2nd March 2022

Yzj ShipBldg reported a good set of results and is backed by record order wins for 124 vessels, the group remains well-positioned to generate strong cash flows from operations.

It has actually consolidated for about 4 months and has finally broke out. Well, the good thing is we didn’t need to wait for that long as we were waiting for signs of activities before alerting our EXCLUSIVE CLIENTS. It came just 2 weeks back when we saw volume starting to pipe in and that’s when our EXCLUSIVE CLIENTS were alerted!

With such a long consolidation, we are looking for more upside even as both our upside target has been hit. A nice 5.5% upside has been achieved and we might see yzj Shipbldg still moving up in the coming days. $1.54 then $1.60 is our eventual target. Even despite the war that is happening, we’re glad that yzj still manage to hit our targets.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
27th February, 2022, 4:34 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fighting has erupted over in Ukraine as Russia forces begin its invasion! Its something not totally unimaginable but something we all really want to avoid. Unfortunately Putin has given the green light and lives had been lost over the week. Hoping for a quick resolution to this and for both countries to go back to the negotiation table.

News of fighting has definitely sent the markets into a sharp sell off, a move also not surprising. For INVESTORS who sold, they might have found themselves in a bit of a tight spot as market rebound eliminating the downside even for the week! As we continue to remind our clients the importance of remaining calm and investing into fundamentally good stocks lets look ahead to see what the week ahead might bring for us.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to watch for new developments on the fighting front and will turn its eyes back onto data when the situation has stabilize.

Wednesday – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.)

Thursday – Fed Chair Powells Testify (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell  is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

 Friday – Nonfarm payroll, Unemployment rate
Taking note of the Fear & Greed Index and the AAII Sentiment index.
Source: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Source: https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

These are some indicators to gauge the market sentiments and as we can see, market is getting more bearish and with the recent events that is happening, more bearish sentiments are around. As we have mentioned previously, S&P500 correcting about 15% is not unexpected and INVESTORS might have to take the chance to pick up quality stocks. Whenever market is at extreme fear, that’s when we should take advantage of it and not buy into the FEAR. Of course this will take studies and analysis and conviction.

For traders, ensure you have proper set ups ready! DO NOT ENTER without a trade plan and especially without a stop loss.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As we kept cautioning about a possible retreat in the STI, it has happen and with such ferocity. It has broken below that lower uptrend support line and went straight down close to the 100ema support which is also near a horizontal support of around 3229. As market pullback, take this opportunity to pick up the local banks! =) STI might stage some rebound in the coming week and start consolidating of a range between 3280-3360.

HSI 

As HSI came to our first support of 23647 then came another shockwave of fighting erupting over in Europe. This sent the HSI to a deep plunge as investors and traders panic and sold off their positions. A triple support can be seen of around  22767 area and if this holds, we might see the HSI starting a nice bounce to 23647 level. Looking for a bounce this week.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th February, 2022, 4:45 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week for the US as Ukraine-Russia tension grew and markets pulled back on fear of war breaking out over there.  China continues to push new regulations with the latest on Friday  issuing guidance for online food delivery platforms to reduce service fees to help to lower operating costs for catering businesses.  This sent Meituan (3690.HK) down 15% . Singapore once again fair better than the West BUT it might be time to take a break from the weeks of gains. As we enter a new week, tensions of war along side with rising inflation will continue to haunt the markets. S&P 500 has also closed below its 200 days moving average, are we expecting more downside? Read on to find out more.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence (Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.)

Thursday – US GDP Q4, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories

Friday – Core Durable Goods Order (Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.)

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As mentioned last week, its good for STI to have some pullback so that traders and investors can move in. A spinning top pattern like candlestick formed on Thursday and with Friday’s candle closing lower, we might see more downside this week. Some support levels we’re looking at, 3400 then 3368 first. Banks continue to hold the index up, although we have seen pockets of Blue Chip stocks moving up especially the recovery play ones like SATS, Comfort, SIA Eng and even Thaibev. We’re continuing to focus on these recovery stocks.

HSI 

Just as HSI was gaining some grounds, but China  has decided to enforce more regulations regarding online delivery to reduce their service fees to spur greater economic growth. That sent the HK markets into a dive sparking another round of sell off as investors worry of more regulatory crack down. Tencent, Alibaba, JD all took a hit and we’ll wait for a base to form once again to look for entry. HSI might see more downside to about 23647 before finding some support

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has closed below its 200 days moving average for 2 days straight. Its not a good sign and has to regain above this in the next 2-3 trading days if not be prepared for more downside. Overall, if S&P 500 tests the previous low, we’re only at about 12%  correction which is still possible for a further downside to even 15-18%. So hang on tight as markets grapple with the ever changing tune of Russia- Ukraine tension. Bracing for more downside. to 4290 first.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq also is below the 200 moving average for the past week and is structurally weak which signals more downside. Tech stocks continue to struggle with ongoing concerns of more rate hike throughout the year. A pullback to 13448 wouldn’t be surprising as that would represent about 20% price correction.

Hang in tight if you’re invested into fundamentally good stocks with wide economic moat.

For traders, do stick to your stop loss and be disciplined especially during such times. Hedging is also a strategy to adopt for this year as we uncover the benefits and reasons for this strategy last week.

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy