Month: October 2022

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 โ€“ [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
30th October, 2022, 2:48 PM

US markets had a good showing as expected. We have been giving updates about the potential rebound for the US and it has hit our initial target of 3850 for the S&P500. Despite the weakness in tech stocks due to earnings, we still saw S&P finishing the week up by over 3% a very nice rebound.

For this week, all eyes will be on Fed’s rate hike of 0.75% which is pretty much priced in BUT what market will be looking out for would be Fed’s willingness to slow the rate hike and or start cutting it back sooner than later. As market has rebound a fair bit, any aggressive speech by the Fed might send market down once again. But a friendlier and less aggressive stand by the Fed might give market more legs to move up. The PCE data released on Friday saw inflation at a high level but at least its not increasing at a fast pace.

As usual, taking some profit ahead of such key event is prudent. One shouldn’t be betting on either direction as this is pure gamble as to what the Fed might do. We rather wait and act accordingly.

STI

Straits Times Index 30th Oct 2022

As mentioned, not shorting for the STI as its already quite depressed as we saw the Straits Times Index having some rebound. Banks were the main driver as UOB came out with better than expected results. In fact, the STI broke above the short term downtrend line signaling more upside in the coming week. Currently resisted at the 20ema, we might see the STI testing 3090 then 3124 very soon. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s meeting to also give direction.

HSI

No end in sight for selling in HK as Xi’s absolute’s power gave no confidence to the market. No relaxation on Covid zero policy gave rise to more selling. How long can China keep this up? Its hard to tell but with not much positive news flow coming out, our weightage on China has reduced and focusing more on US and Singapore. Until we see some positive news flow and an overall change in China’s stand, every bounce is a short!

US is getting exciting and you don’t want to miss out another potential rebound. So do head over to our facebook to check out our views and updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 โ€“ [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , ,
23rd October, 2022, 4:22 PM

Do note that Singapore market will be closed on Monday (24th Oct) for Deepavali holiday. It will resume trading on 25th Oct Tuesday.

Meanwhile, US market finally had a good close on Friday after a volatile week. S&P500 managed to break and stay above the 3700 level which we might see more upside in the coming week. Big Tech companies are also reporting this week with Alphabet kicking it off on Tuesday, Microsoft, Meta on Wednesday and Apple , Amazon on Thursday which could help boost the Nasdaq.

Its about a week more before Fed meet to increase rate, so we’re taking this week to play a rebound before going light once again. The 10 year yield also saw some retracement but still above 4%

As for China, nothing very exciting came out from China after a week long of meeting only that the former President Huย Jintao was unceremoniously removed from the closing speech. Market was disappointed as we saw some sell down in the HSI and China A50. As expectations are all priced in, we might now see some rebound in the coming week.

STI

STI went below our downside target of 3000 and its a bit too late to short now before any meaningful rebound. We saw some palm oil stocks having a good rebound especially First Resources. A good 10% upside for this rebound gave a good boost to the morale. For the STI, the downside could be till around 2900 after which we might be rebound. As mentioned, a bit too late for shorts. Looking for rebound instead before shorting.

HSI

Same thing, the hang seng index also saw some downside to 16200 level, in line with our downside target, we are looking at the 16k level to hold before deciding on any long position. CCP meeting has ended and President Xi has sealed his power for another term and with no end in Covid lockdown any bounce from the China market would be met with selling. For now, more short term trading while waiting for bigger news to flow out of China. Focusing more on US for now.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

October Quarterly Webinar Special

Kelwin & Roy Webinar
22nd October, 2022, 3:22 PM

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Date: 26 & 27Oct (2nights) Wed & Thursday
Time : 8-9:30pm for each session
Live Webinar on Zoom

Don’t miss this and remember to invite a friend who can benefit from this sharing.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 โ€“ [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
16th October, 2022, 7:17 PM

Disappointing CPI data as inflation still remains stubbornly high. We saw a really WILD ride as Nasdaq moved over 5% in intraday movement on Thursday night. Market actually clawed back its losses on Thursday night coming back from being down 3% to ending up 2%. But on Friday US markets gave up all gains. We know it can be frustrating when markets swing to wildly so its very important to reduce your lot size and ensuring you’re discipling in cutting loss. Save your bullets to fight another day.

For this week , China’s CCP meeting will be focus. New party leaders will be chosen, growth plans laid out and China’s plan on the international stage will also be discussed. Markets might also take some cue in the party’s plan with regards to battling Covid. Many are hoping that China will ease their stand on Covid lock downs so that more economic activity can start. But at the same time, let’s not be too hopefully.

STI

Our Straits Times Index also came off as expected before some rebound after CPI data but was short lived as traders took profit on a relief rally. With Friday’s negative close, we might start off in the red for the week and probably look to fight our way through the week. We might move down to 3000 a round number support before any rebound that might come during the later part of the week.

HSI

After coming off as mentioned last week , the Hang Seng Index tried to look for a rebound but like STI, it was short lived. The 5ema acted as the resistance and HSI couldn’t stay above it. For this week, the CCP meeting will probably give us guidance to where the HSI might go to. It might consolidate around the 16k region and only if it manages to stay above the 5ema then we might see further rebound to 17500 level.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 โ€“ [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
9th October, 2022, 4:21 PM

Good news is bad news for markets now and till market is about to normalize good news and bad news, we’ll continue to see violent moves up and down. Unemployment rate came in lower at 3.5% while payroll rises by 263k all better than expected and instead of cheering on the data, markets sold off. As unemployment comes down, this would translate into spending which means inflation might still be stubbornly high. For this week, all eyes will be on CPI data coming out on 13 oct. If CPI data comes in above expectation then expect more SELLING!!

HSI

HSI bounced off our support of around 16880 but the bounce was quickly met with resistance which is the downtrend line and the 20ema. For this week , we’re expecting weakness in HSI once again as global sentiments continue to be weak. Immediate support is at 17732 and downside target is around 17000. Once again, awaiting to see what happens at the CCP 20th Congress Meeting to get a clue what policies might be introduced.

STIย 

STI also saw some rebound after some consolidation and currently at the 5ema support. But with Friday’s sell down, we might see more downside for the STI to around the 3090 level. All eyes on CPI data before any moves and as usual we always caution before going into any big data as any disappointment would see markets selling off and you don’t want to be caught in that.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 โ€“ [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , ,
2nd October, 2022, 10:42 PM

Dow closes worst September in 20 years and stocks plunge as bear market intensifies. For those in the bear camp, you’ll probably be rejoicing as markets breaks June low with not much recovery in sight. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation the PCEย  is the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for consumer behavior. It showed signs of acceleration last week which caused more sell down. The S&P 500 tried its best to hold the 3600 support but gave way at the later part of the trading day. We might see more downside for the coming week as trader would pile on their shorts when the key support is broken. It’s about 2 more weeks before the CPI data for Sept is released and once again markets will look to this data for clue of inflation numbers. Overall, we’re waiting for a rebound rather than shorting now.
STI

Pullback was very much expected as Reits and banks were sold down during the week due to raising interest rates. The Straits Times Index came off after it broke down from out downtrend line we drew and more than expected as stocks took a hit with renewed fear of raising inflation. For this week, STI might try to consolidate around the 3100 area before any moves. A week’s consolidation is healthy for us.

HSI

HSI still continuing its march down as market looks ahead to the CCP meeting coming this month. All eyes on that and Xi’s future plan for China with regards to Covid.ย ย On October 1, China celebrates its 73rd National Day, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China. National Day also marks the beginning of the week-long holiday known as Golden Week. Due to Covid19 restriction, this has caused quite a bit of chaos as travelers try to make their way home. For this week, HK side might be slightly muted as China is closed for the week and HK will have a public holiday on 4th Oct. A zoom out for HSI to Oct 2021 might give some support for the HSI around 16800 level. We could see HSI slowly drift down to this level before CCP meeting.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy