The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

12th March, 2023, 10:54 PM

It was a disappointing week with Fed’s powell coming up with a hawkish tone that interest rate might continue to go up higher and longer. That sent the markets diving and to add salt to the wound, silicon valley bank (SVB) collapsed over a few days and many are concern over the ripple effect that it might have. Crypto bank silvergate also announced liquidation which added to the chaos. Overall, it has been a tough week ever since Fed’s statement.

Core CPI data another important data which market will be looking closely at to see if Fed will really raise interest rates by 0.5% in the next meeting. Expectations are rising for a 0.5% rise as inflation data is starting to point on an upside.

The Greed and Fear index is returning to extreme fear and we could see a rebound coming soon but with the rebound it will probably attractive shortist and people who needs to cut loss, hence any rebound will be met with resistance.

STI

STI continues to trend down as banks lead the downfall. As Fed continues to pressure the markets and with the fallout of SVB, our local banks also took a hit. We might see STI fall to the next support level of 3150 before planning our next move. Currently the downtrend line is also acting as a resistance. Waiting for a base to be formed first.

HSI

We can’t get the chart for the HSI out but after Fed’s meeting last week, we do see HSI following US with the selloff and with negative sentiments around we could still see HSI selling off a little more. Once again the sentiments has shifted and until we know how bad the fallout for the SVB is and how the CPI data next week is, any rebound will be met with short sellers. We did have some long positions when HSI pulled back and are we going to sell these? No! But we’re not adding more as yet till we see markets stablize a little more. No hurry for now.

As market is in a turmoil, head over to our Facebook for more updates on the US markets.

Stay safe and its the school holidays this week!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

5th March, 2023, 2:58 PM

As per last week’s update, we mentioned that markets were due for a rebound after coming down so much. The S&P500 touched the 200ma and the 38% Fibo retracement level which gave support for a rebound! What to look out for this week? Fed Chair testifies this week, once again market will look to what he has to say and if there is a chance of less aggressive interest rate hike and less hawkish statements. This could then give rise to another leg up.

Another to note, towards the end of the week, the usual NFP and IJC will also take spotlight as to how inflation might be.

And lastly, China’s “Two Sessions” is an annual parliamentary meeting that gathers delegates from across China to discuss and approve national priorities. China is also set to release its annual targets for GDP growth, inflation and employment. The meeting could last about 2 weeks. What’s interesting is that China tends to gain after the NPC meeting. Are you positioned for that?

 

HSI

 

HSI came to our near term support and bounced off and even broke through the downtrend line which has been resisting it. Volume came in as short sellers looked to cover while long traders took the chance to build their positions. As we been advocating, take the downside for the HSI to add in your long term positions. With this break, we might see the index trend higher in the coming weeks. The hang seng index could still do a re-test of the lower band of 20,110 and then start to move up towards 21,353. Hope you have added some long term positions! Baidu, Tencent is leading the charge!

Watch out for the NPC meeting that is currently taking place too. It could give clues to which sector to be focusing on.

STI

STI was the only index that didn’t rebound, but we could be looking at some rebound this week as banks are also nearing their support. The immediate support for STI is at 3220 then 3181. We’re looking more for a rebound rather than shorting now. As banks make a big part of the STI, a move upwards could see it pull the STI up.

Its a big week ahead and things are looking up! Head over to our Facebook to read up more on the S&P500 and Nasdaq100. You don’t want to miss this.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy