The Week Ahead July 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th July, 2022, 3:30 PM

Did you see what happen last week? CPI numbers were out and it was higher than expected coming in at 9.1% which sent the market down at the start BUT actually recovered during the week. US markets did show some resilience and ended up for the week. This is not reversal yet but does show that markets are temporary ignoring these data. US earnings are are also coming out with JP Morgan having a lower quarter while Citibank beating results. Its too early to tell now but we will want to watch for more earnings before making any conclusion. For now we can see that S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 has strong resistance at the 50ema.

HSI

Weakness spotted in HSI which is a good thing if you’re a longer term investor and have missed the first wave for the Hang Seng. It is approaching our 20k downside target. Increase in Covid cases, growth rate slowing caused the downside in HK last week. For this week we continue to look for opportunity for long term holders to take a position as HSI is coming close to the 20k mark. We’ll watch for a base to form if not our next support would be 19300.

 

STI

STI couldn’t break the resistance we drew and came off after that . Immediate support at 3089. STI still looks weak and mainly guided by the banks. If banks start to break their support, we might see STI test the low of 3040. STI continues to be in a range and our local market has been lackluster and there hasn’t been much happening. Opportunity lies in HK and US for now so focusing more on those markets.

Head over to our facebook for more updates on S&P500 and Nasdaq for the potential levels we are looking at.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

22nd May, 2022, 11:31 AM

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

What a  week for the markets! Very interesting set ups for each markets and there’s so much happening. China cutting interest rates and shanghai coming out of lockdown very soon. china government looking to support the tech sector and stop regulations, giving a boost to the tech sector. US inflation is looking to soften.  The S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory but managed to close above that. Could this be the start of a sustained rebound? Do remember to check out all our updates on our Facebook too!

STI

The bounce came in for STI as regional market tries to find their footing and ended up on a positive note for the week. STI currently near the horizontal resistance of around 3249 but we do think that its possible for more upside as the banks for building a base and might look to rebound in the coming week. Upside resistance at 3297 to cover that  mini gap.

HSI

HSI cautious moved up during the week and ended with a bang as China cuts their interest rates which gave the market a much need boost. It is now at the important downtrend resistance line. Its the third time testing this line and usually it takes about 4 times for a stronger break. But with news of a interest rate cut, this might help in the push up so we’re looking for a break and even a test of around 22390 level in the coming weeks. Remember this is more for short term trading. For Long term holders, if you have been following us then you probably might have a position in the HSI already. So continue to hold for that and wait for the bigger recovery to come.

Have a great trading week ahead!

And do go to our Facebook for Nasdaq and S&P 500 updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

16th May, 2022, 5:36 PM
The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another crazy week as inflation came in HOT but higher than april’s number. Although inflation slowed down but it didn’t slow down as much and market saw another slam dunk. Towards the end of the week, market saw some relief  but was still down for the week. Well, will be just be a dead cat bounce or the end of the correction? To be honest, no one knows but what matters most is your time frame. Whether you’re a trader or investor. And that will make a difference.

STI

As expected, STI pulled back last week but came off more than expected. Some support drawn on the chart and for now, the 5ema would act as a resistance now and would look for that to break above before any bullish move made. Looking for some rebound for the week as markets in the US are generally oversold. So some relief rally could potentially bring in some rally here.

HSI

HSI broke the 20k support as mentioned and head down to our first support. During the week, some news came out that china govt will be meeting the tech companies for discussion with regards to the crackdown. This helped market out as we saw a general rebound in tech stocks. HSI is currently above the 5ema but still below the downtrend line and the 20ema line in yellow. cautious bullish but not going in full size in terms of trading as HSI always comes down even after good news.

Head over to our face book page for analysis on S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th April, 2022, 4:18 PM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week as US market kicks off earning seasons. We have warned that markets are not of the woods yet as market are still trying to find their footing and have not gained any strong grounds yet.  BOA, J&J, TESLA and many more other companies will be reporting their first quarter results. This is key to see as it could set the tone for the year as companies grapple with supply side constraints and with a rising interest rate environment too. This might also lead to markets fluctuating as market takes some cue from earnings.  To find out more when are the other companies reporting results, you can head over HERE. 

STI

As mentioned last week, we expected more pullback for the STI and it has come true. STI has pulled back to 3340 level and we might see further pullback to 3300. This level might see more bargain hunting and we’ll be waiting. Don’t forget although the index might be down, individual stocks can still move up. Oil and coal related stocks are still moving up!

HSI

Weakness also flow into the Hong Kong markets as previously mentioned but with some trickle of good news where the Chinese government finally gave approval for some games. Not turning bullish unless we see more convincing signs, like staying above the downtrend lines. Our downside target remains at around 20000.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

10th April, 2022, 4:12 PM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will shrink balance sheet ‘rapidly’ and it also sent the market into a rapid descend during the week. As fed continues to tighten monetary policy through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet, markets didn’t take it that well and started selling off especially the tech related sector.

We’re not out of the woods yet as key indices are near key support levels and we need to see support before making any moves.

STI

As mentioned, STI came off and went down to the 20ema support. It saw a slight rebound but we’re not convinced of it yet and might be heading lower to 3340 first. Although the STI is down, there are some pocket of stocks that are up like Sembcorp Industries, coal related stocks which we are glad we have caught them. So do look at individual stocks to see their strength too.

HSI

HSI moving in a bit of sideways unable to push higher but yet not pulling lower. The consolidation band is around 21260 level to 22397 area and we’re looking to see where it’ll go for now. Odds are for it to shift lower for a better entry unless there is strength to break that downtrend line and then the resistance of 22397. Looking for a clearer picture for the HSI.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th March, 2022, 1:03 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Post Fed hike and markets have generally trend higher. Ever since S&P 500 has broken above one of its key resistance level of 4300, we have seen it moved up another 5% to touch the 100days simple moving average. A very nice gain for the past week or so. This post will be slightly shorter as Covid has taken over the household and rest and recover is the order of the day.

STI

STI has hit our 3402 upside resistance and find see it push up further this week. Recovery stocks were in play as Covid measures were eased and borders measure further lax as we welcome more international travelers. This caused the 3 S stocks like SATS, SIA and SIA Engineering to FLY. We caught SIA Engineering and SATS which made our client’s week much happier! Electronic stocks also saw recovery as previously mentioned and  AEM led the pack in pushing it up.  Next upside resistance at around 3453 and downside support at 3349

HSI

Some pullback in the HSI which is healthy as there was a huge rebound. If HSI pullbacks to around the 20k mark which covers the gap and stays around there. This would signal a good higher low in progress! Will be keeping a watch out for that as the HK markets now looks more promising! Tencent posted a set of results that was up to analyst expectation but with slower growth as a concern this caused some pullback in the stock. Waiting for a base to be built before any long entry.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

20th March, 2022, 4:32 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Two very important announcements  took place over the week which was China coming up to pledge support for the markets and Fed announcing rate hike and the future hikes that is to come. All in all, it was a crazy week as market saw a nice recovery throughout.

HSI

Paying a little more attention to this particular market as China has come up to pledge support for the market and would soon wind down on the regulatory front. It also pledge help to support companies listed overseas as delisting concerns sent HK tech stocks plummeting through the week. This also came on the back when JPMorgan China Internet analysts Alex Yao and team said this sector is “univestable” for the next 6-12 months. And before you know it, the market rallied over 16%. =)

So, how Hong Kong Market bottomed? That’s the question we’ve been getting throughout the week. In a nutshell, nobody knows BUT with further investigation, we can probably see a change in trend to the upside and these are some of the points for us to see if it has bottomed.

  1. Moving Averages , a good way to tell a trend is by looking at the moving averages. For now, we can see that the 50ema is still above the 20ma which still signal a downtrend. WAITING for a crossover of the 20 over the 50 for a confirmation in trend change.
  2. News of China supporting the market on Wednesday which might now help to build a base around the 18200 mark.
  3. For a sign of market bottom, a re-test near the low would show sign of strength and this could then provide a higher low in the making.
  4. Also the next bounce up should be higher than the 20ema of around 21550 to provide a higher swing high.

When we see these in play, we would then be more confident of a market bottom.

On a side note, don’t be too obsessed in finding the bottom as we all KNOW by now, nobody can find that bottom. Once might be lucky and the good old dollar cost average AND proper allocation into individual stock. So no real point in mentioning hey, i managed to grab Alibaba at HKD$73 or Tencent at $300. If you consistently are able to do that, PLEASE give me a call, you got my number. =)

Like an naggy parent, invest into QUALITY stocks and even with a downfall, you can still sleep in peace at night. UNLESS you have wrongly allocated into a stock then you probably won’t sleep that well.

STI

We’re pleased with our alerts on the Singapore market for the last 2 months even though HK & US were down, we managed to achieve a high 90% accuracy in our alerts to our clients. With fed increasing the interest rate, it is no surprise that LOCAL BANKS have moved up after the announcement. We’re glad we have positioned our clients for this ride once again.

Electronic stocks are also looking for a rebound but we will want to be nimble for these stocks. More upside for our STI might be seen from the chart above.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

13th March, 2022, 4:20 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will be meeting this week and we’re most likely going to see an increase in rates. What is more important is the fed’s posture, how many times they’re looking at for hike and how fast. An increase in march is more or less a given only by 0.25% or 0.5%. With inflation at sky high, fed is also under pressure to tame inflation.

With the war that is happening, this has really changed the game plan and even the outlook of the economy. With the ongoing sanctions, oil prices increasing this has increased the  chances of a bear market. The increase in commodity prices will have ripple effects on the economy and markets could see a slow down for the time being. We wouldn’t want to use too much leverage in such times as the chances of a bear market has increased.

Key Events to Watch For 

Development over in Ukraine is key as its hard to tell how this war will end and how long more will the fighting carry on. Markets continue to remain on edge as this war does look different from the others.

Eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March and decision on rate hike will be announced on Thursday morning 17th March singapore time. Near term volatility is expected.

Reduced leverage, stick to your trading plan with a tight stop loss. Now is not the time to be aggressive or a hero.

Market continues to be near the extreme fear region which investor might want to take advantage of.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Singapore market performing the best for us with most of our Singapore targets hitting their targets despite the negative market sentiments. We’re cautious this week as Fed is set to increase interest rates hence for trading position we wouldn’t be aggressive but would rather adopt a wait and see approach.

HSI 

Norway sovereign fund’s offloading Li Ning is triggering some worries in the HK markets, tech companies reporting lower results due to regulations, US delisting fears for dual listing China companies, Covid cases increasing both in mainland china and HK. Its a never ending list of fear and uncertainty for the HK market. It is possible for a test of around 20k for HK before some bargain hunting comes in. Indicators are currently oversold too. Trading has been tough in HK market and we haven’t been giving any alerts for the HK markets for while. Waiting for a more stability in HK first.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

6th March, 2022, 4:46 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another rollercoaster week as fighting rages on. One can only hope and wish for fighting to stop and parties to come back to the negotiation tables. As there is a cease fire going on and talks to resumes on Monday, we can pray that it will be one that is fruitful and not just to buy time and nothing good comes out of it.

Adding fuel to the fire, eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March regarding interest rate hike which might cause some near term volatility again.

Lastly, the annual meetings of two of China’s top political bodies has commenced this weekend. The economic and legislative decisions made at these meetings will provide a roadmap for China’s economic and social development in 2022 and are therefore of high importance to any player in the China market.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to keep tabs on the fighting and development in Ukraine while also keeping track of the impending rising interest rates.

Thursday – Initial Jobless claim, Core CPI numbers ( The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.) Take note as market might react to this too.

The Fear & Greed Index is at extreme FEAR now which we think is once again an opportunity to scale in rather than FLEEING. Of course remember to scale in in batches and not go in all at once. Nobody knows when the market will bottom.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Didn’t get the rebound that we were anticipating but the interesting thing was that the stocks that we have selected all produced positive gains! STI currently supported at around 3215, looking for this to hold before any rebound. BANKS are starting to looking juicy after the sell down, its on our radar now!

S&P 500

Seeing some rebound at the 4290 area with a hammer candlestick which could be positive for some rebound. S&P 500 has corrected about 14% and that 4110 remains critical. The week ahead still hinges on the war and interest rates and for traders you might want to scale back on your lot size. Market is not stable yet. Although we are looking for some upside this week, do ensure for a proper set up before entering. The near term resistance is around 4461.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq still not out of the woods and still facing selling pressure. We might see it move down to 13471 level first as rising interest rate might spook the tech stocks once again. Waiting for a more stable structure to form and a nice candle to form before taking further trading action.

HSI 

Last but not least but one of the most disappointing market for the year, is our HSI. Started well for the week but due to geo political events and more regulatory measures from China, this has really put a dampen on the HSI. We might see it move to 21138 level in the coming week and there we might see more bargain hunting come around. China’s meeting this week also sets the tone to where the HSI might be heading. Don’t give up on this fella yet!

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th February, 2022, 4:34 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fighting has erupted over in Ukraine as Russia forces begin its invasion! Its something not totally unimaginable but something we all really want to avoid. Unfortunately Putin has given the green light and lives had been lost over the week. Hoping for a quick resolution to this and for both countries to go back to the negotiation table.

News of fighting has definitely sent the markets into a sharp sell off, a move also not surprising. For INVESTORS who sold, they might have found themselves in a bit of a tight spot as market rebound eliminating the downside even for the week! As we continue to remind our clients the importance of remaining calm and investing into fundamentally good stocks lets look ahead to see what the week ahead might bring for us.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to watch for new developments on the fighting front and will turn its eyes back onto data when the situation has stabilize.

Wednesday – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.)

Thursday – Fed Chair Powells Testify (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell  is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

 Friday – Nonfarm payroll, Unemployment rate
Taking note of the Fear & Greed Index and the AAII Sentiment index.
Source: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Source: https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

These are some indicators to gauge the market sentiments and as we can see, market is getting more bearish and with the recent events that is happening, more bearish sentiments are around. As we have mentioned previously, S&P500 correcting about 15% is not unexpected and INVESTORS might have to take the chance to pick up quality stocks. Whenever market is at extreme fear, that’s when we should take advantage of it and not buy into the FEAR. Of course this will take studies and analysis and conviction.

For traders, ensure you have proper set ups ready! DO NOT ENTER without a trade plan and especially without a stop loss.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As we kept cautioning about a possible retreat in the STI, it has happen and with such ferocity. It has broken below that lower uptrend support line and went straight down close to the 100ema support which is also near a horizontal support of around 3229. As market pullback, take this opportunity to pick up the local banks! =) STI might stage some rebound in the coming week and start consolidating of a range between 3280-3360.

HSI 

As HSI came to our first support of 23647 then came another shockwave of fighting erupting over in Europe. This sent the HSI to a deep plunge as investors and traders panic and sold off their positions. A triple support can be seen of around  22767 area and if this holds, we might see the HSI starting a nice bounce to 23647 level. Looking for a bounce this week.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy