The Week Ahead Nov 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

26th November, 2023, 11:02 PM

We can see the momentum in the US market is slowing down. After a huge rally its not uncommon for market to slow down. The Greed & Fear index which is one of the tool we use for reference is in the GREED quadrant currently. We could still see market push into the extreme greed before we start to get more cautious. S&P500 could push up to around the 4600 before some pullback. The Nasdaq has already broke above the previous high and also hovering around there.

For this week US inflation data will once again be looked at. Data will be out on Thursday which could bolster the case for an end to the Federal Reserve rate hikes.

China is to release official purchasing manager indexes for November on Thursday, with investors on the lookout for any signs of a recovery in the world’s second largest economy.

STI

Our Straits Times Index as mentioned before is lackluster with not much catalyst. It has been going sideways as our banks has been coming down after their results. We could see the STI heading lower should US side start to pullback. 3050 once again could be a support level before bouncing up again. Most blue chips are also in a sideways trend. We’ve been looking at S-reits as interest rates could have peaked which is good news for Reits.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index also couldn’t push above its resistance line despite good closing from US side. For this week we could see the HSI head down towards the 17k level. HSI has been trying to find footing but with every rally it pullbacks. Not the best signs for now and for trading wise one got to be fast for HSI until the trend changes. Don’t expect too much on the upside and take your profits fast rather than facing the whiplash. Until HSI can stay above the downtrend line, we could see range trading so be fast!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

13th November, 2023, 10:29 PM

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Us ended with a bang on Friday night as the party carried on. Nasdaq was up 2% as short sellers rush to cover their positions as the bulls got stronger. As market closed on Friday Moody’s came out with a cut on US outlook credit rating from stable to negative. US futures was off a little and the true impact could only be felt when market opens. This wouldn’t be too concerning with probably a knee jerk reaction.

What market would be looking for this week? CORE CPI tomorrow night (tuesday night US). A favourable number could rule out any rate hike for dec bumping the probability to even 90% . This could further fuel the rally which we are witnessing and hopefully you have benefitted from too . So eyes will be on that.

STI

Source: DTZ 13th Nov 2023

Our Straits Times Index hit our first resistance target of 3182 and started pulling back from there. The first support of 3120 didn’t hold which means we could now see the index drop to 3080 as the next support. So far banks have reported their results with mostly being inline with expectations. Not much catalyst left for our market expect to follow the general sentiments. With Nov and Dec seasonally being better months, we could see general bargain hunting for the market which could lift the index. Looking for a base to form around 3050-3080 level before a bounce.  Also, IFAST does look a little extended and a pullback could be around the corner.

HSI

Source: DTZ 13th Nov 2023

The hang seng index had a good rebound hitting our 18k resistance. Although we would have liked the HSI to rebound further the rebound was short lived and selling resumed. We were looking out for the 5ema support which didn’t hold thus saw more downside for the HSI. One last support would be at the 16900 level. HSI was open on monday and it held its ground pretty well. It is still in a down trend and only staying above 18k then would we consider that the trend might be reversing. For now resistance at 17500. Breaking this could see it move up to the resistance of 18k. Looking bullish to us.

Your

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

5th November, 2023, 11:27 PM

We do apologize for the lack of updates to the public  but rest assured that our clients are getting full updates just like the one below.

We’re in Nov a seasonally stronger month and we have seen markets rebounding fiercely for the last week. We hope you have positioned yourself for this rebound and for the long term investors taking advantage of the pullback. We could be looking at more upside for the HK market while S&P approaches some resistance and might not rebound as much.

STI

Chart Source: DZH advisor 5th Nov 2023

The Straits Times Index broke out of its consolidated range with a general rebound in the blue chip. Banks led the gain BUT we got to be careful as DBS will be reporting their results before market opens on 6th Nov ( Monday). Outlook could be a little more cautious as the economy is slowing down and concerns about loan book growth could start impacting the banks. UOB fell after their results so the same fate could be for DBS.  OCBC will be reporting their results this coming friday(10 Nov) before market open.STI is currently at the resistance after covering the gap. We’re still positive for the week and could see STI make a break to 3186.  SATS will be releasing their results also on Friday so if you would take a trade do take note of that and try not to hold over the results.

HSI

Year to date the Hang Seng Index has been rather disappointing BUT this could be changing as China is trying their very best to kick start their economy. The HSI broke out from its mini consolidation and this could now bring us to the 18k level and even 18500. It has broken above its 20ema resistance too which is a positive sign as it has always been resisted by that. Many stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, Geely are all breaking out too. Don’t miss this opportunity as this is the first day that HSI broke out. Many shortist will have to start covering if the rally gets stronger which could then add to this rebound. Looking to a positive week.!

Head over to our FB page for more updates on the US markets which you don’t want to miss.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

1st October, 2023, 11:51 PM

Sept is over! Time to wake up? As repeated many times, Sept is seasonally weaker and we saw US market pulling back about 6-7%. No real surprises there with many issues coming up like Fed holding rates for longer, inflation creeping up and an impending govt shutdown. The CNN Greed & Fear Index is now very near the extreme fear side. Do you smell an opportunity?? Or are you as fearful as everyone?

Source: CNN Greed & Fear Index

This week, the Hong Kong market will be closed on Monday and China market will  be closed for the whole week due to China’s golden week.

STI

The Straits Times Index showed sign of resilience as it bounced off the 3180 support. It it currently resisted by the 20ema of around 3220. As the last quarter begins , we could see funds reshuffling their holding and could see our market being supported and moving up. As Hong Kong is closed on monday, we may see a slower start to the week and a challenge to 3250 is possible. Looking at banks to lend support to our STI.

HSI

The Hong Kong market will be closed on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday. The Hang Seng Index has been defending the 17500 level for the past week and have shown a positive sign with a bullish candle on Friday. It went up over 2.50% which is encouraging but stopped at the 20ema. For this week, we could see the hang seng index overcoming this resistance to bring it to 18522. It has tested the 20 ema three times and could hover for awhile before a final break! Keep a close eye on it. The trend could be turning.

Head over to our facebook page to find out more about what to expect for the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

24th September, 2023, 11:02 PM

The S&P500 and Nasdaq both posted worst week since March after Fed meeting. As always, we warn not to take up too much positions before any major events. Fed didn’t hike rate as anticipated BUT it always mentioned that it won’t be cutting rates that aggressively in 2024 which saw market selling off. The 10 year yield also started moving up which puts more pressure on the markets especially on Nasdaq.

For this week, there are some critical levels to watch out for especially for the US markets.

S&P500

The S&P500 currently sitting on a first level of support of  4320 could see it move down lower during the week. We could see it test the 4264 level which coincides with the 200ema and the uptrend support line too. This could be the first level to scale in if you have missed out on the year’s rally. This level would represent about a 7% pullback and its well within a healthy market pullback. In fact, a 10% pullback shouldn’t be seen as a surprise given how much markets have ran up too. So get your ammo ready!

Nasdaq100

Nasdaq, the index that is more sensitive towards interest rates movement has already seen about an 8% pullback since the high. But don’t forget this is the market that has risen a whooping 45% for the year too! so an 8% pullback once again shouldn’t be too much to ask for. For the week, we could also see Nasdaq continue to drift lower. The 200ema or 14078 level could be a good point of support. Waiting around there to add more positions into the Nasdaq.

STI

The Straits Times Index pulled back more than expected as the negative sentiments flowed through Asia after Fed’s meeting. STI has found some support at the 3186 level but this might not be able to hold that well. For the week, we could still see more weakness coming in as STI tries to defend the 3180 level. The next critical support would be at 3120.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index saw a strong come back of about 2.2% on Friday as funds put US$1 Billion back into China markets. Investors picked up badly beaten up stocks like Tencent which came to its $300 psychological level. HSI could push higher to 18500 level this week but take note that whenever HSI rallies, it tends to fizzle out. So don’t be overly optimistic on short term rally and be quick on securing profits. The support of 17570 had been tested and is proving to be a credible support for now. Once this holds well we might really see the bottoming for the Hang Seng Index. Fingers CROSSED!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th September, 2023, 11:17 PM

Although Singapore’s F1 night race is over there is another exciting event coming up which is the Fed meeting happening this week. Fed will meet once again to decide if they will hike interest rates. The probability for the hike is only 2% while 98% thinks that Fed won’t be hiking.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Although Sep’s meeting most likely should not see a hike, we might see a might in Nov if inflation starts creeping up. So lets not celebrate too early. We could still see some pullback in the markets after this.

STI

The Straits Times Index showed strength for the week, as it touched the downtrend support line. A consolidation happened over there and started to take off. Banks led the way while other blue chips like Sembcorp industries, Keppel Corp helped to bring the index up. US closed negative on Friday night which we could see the negative sentiments flowing through Asia. We could see a small pullback for the STI before making an attempt towards 3320 area.

HSI

 

The Hang Seng Index also showed strength towards the end of the week as China’s retail sales showed some signed of improvement which came as a surprised. We can see from the chart that it was consolidating for the week before pushing up. It is currently resisted by the 20ema and also coinciding with the downtrend resistance line. Furthermore, with the negative close in the US we could see HK pulling back too. Waiting for HSI to break above the 20ema for a clearer picture and strength for the HSI. The next target could be 19730.

Head over to our Facebook page for more updates on the US market.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

10th September, 2023, 10:29 PM

It was no surprise that markets fell through the week with the S&P500 falling 1.5% for the week. We’ve been warning about Sept being a weaker month and we’re currently seeing that weakness flowing through now. How deep will this pullback be? We did mention about this in our previous webinar and a pullback of about 5-10% is within expectation.

And this week would be interesting as CPI & PPI will be out on wed & thursday. This would be crucial as Oil is starting to spike and there has been murmur about inflation moving up. This week’s data would be useful in helping to decide if Fed would increase their rates at the next meeting. So do take note of this.

STI

STI didn’t go as planned as we the overall bearishness in the US & HK market flowed into our Straits Times Index. We didn’t see a continuation of the rebound and now could see some downside instead. It is currently at the support level of around 3200 and if this break we could see the downside to 3180 then 3150. Looking at more downside for the week.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index also pulled back on worries about China’s property stock falling out plus a slowing economy doesn’t add well to the mix. It was a short week as HK was closed due typhoon warning. For the week, we could see more downside again taking the Hang Seng Index to 17500 level. Wait for a base to form before adding and of course with the right allocation.

Head over to our FB page for more updates on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

3rd September, 2023, 10:00 PM

US market ended up for the week after PCE and unemployment data. We can see that the momentum of the market is starting to slow down and market doesn’t run too much on. We are in the month of Sept and seasonally this is a weaker month BUT there could still be a chance of it ending up and TAKE THIS CHANCE TO ADD SHARES IF YOU MISSED OUT PREVIOUSLY. For the month of Sept, Fed meeting would be one key event to look at. Market is widely anticipating Fed not to increase this round as inflation is showing signs of slow down and economy is also slow down. This could in turn bring a pause in rates which could bring another rally for the markets. =)

STI

Straits Times Index 3rd Sept 2023

The Straits Times Index  rebound to our target of around 3230 level and currently being resisted. For the week ahead, we could see it break this resistance. Blue chip stock like Keppel Corp, SATS looks poised for a breakout. We’re targeting about 3295 for the next week or so as stocks are showing signs of rebound. We managed to catch the rebound in the banks which we mentioned TWO WEEKS back!

HSI

Hang Seng Index 3rd Sept

Hang Seng Index had a shorter week due to typhoon saola which shut the HK market down on friday. We were expecting resistance when HK went to 18522 our target, true enough we saw a pullback from the HK market. It is now currently at the 5ema support. We could see it consolidate over here with the downside support at 18053 and the resistance at 18522. After that we could see it move up to 18814 level at the gap resistance. Proceed with caution for the HK market as the market needs time to resolve its slowing economy and one way is through a big STIMULUS from the China Govt before it can really take off.

Proceed to our FACEBOOK for US markets!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th August, 2023, 10:48 PM

It was a relatively volatile week and with the jackson hole meeting finally out of the way this now paves the way for the next Fed meeting.

As we’re entering Sept a seasonally weaker period we could see market starting to be more volatile too. That said, it doesn’t mean we will wait for a BOTTOM which nobody knows but at certain support levels that’s when we will scale in. We do look at this pullback as an opportunity to add good quality shares.

STI

 

Straits Times Index 27th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 27aug 2023

Straits Times Index saw a rebound as we expected. Reaching close to the 3130 levels. Many stocks saw some rebound which we could see it continue for the week. The resistance we’re looking at its at around the 3220 level. We’re seeing the banks leading the rebound and Sembcorp the darling of STI also showing signs of rebound. After hitting the resistance we might want to be a little cautious as we could still see some pullback after that. So don’t go too crazy

HSI

Hang Seng Index 27th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 27aug 2023

Hang Seng Index formed a base for the week and started to show some rebound. We might not be out of the WOODS yet as HSI still remains unstable due to many downgrades and its property sector still not showing signs of rebound. It’s important to ensure proper allocation to the Hong Kong market and not putting all your eggs in one basket. We could see the HSI rebound to the 20ema at around 18522 level before meeting with meaningful resistance.  Geely holding up well last week despite the sell down.

Head over to our facebook for more updates on the S&P and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

20th August, 2023, 9:48 PM

As early as Mid July we’ve been sounding the bell to be careful especially in the US markets when the greed & fear index was at the extreme greed, emotions were raising and investors were rushing in for the fear of missing the next rally. Ever since then, the S&P500 has pulled back about 5% and the Nasdaq about 8%. Market sentiments continue to be weak especially for AUG-SEPT which is seasonally weaker therefore such a pullback is no surprise to us.

Of course time in the market is better than timing the market but as an educated investor we want to do some studies and make the best of what knowledge we have.

We did a simple study for one year for the greed & fear index vs the S&P500. Can you spot anything on the chart??We have highlighted that whenever the Greed&fear is below 50 or swings towards the fear to extreme fear do you notice that market is kind of near or at the bottom?? And what happens next? Its for ur own interpretation. =) but from the looks of it, the bottom usually is near. So for now, market might have a bit more room to go down BUT we can never know where the bottom is and therefore it is important to do a dollar cost average!

STI

Straits Times Index 20th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 20aug 2023

The Straits Times Index  came off for the week but more than we expected! As world wide sentiments continue to dampen, Singapore market being so small will naturally be affected. We still could see more downside to 3130 levels before we see some meaning rebound. Over there we probably go for a rebound trade as bargain hunters will start coming out. Bank stocks like OCBC is on our radar for a rebound.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 20th Aug 2023

HSI saw a disappointing close affected by negative sentiments and a gloomy forecast of the China’s economy. Property sector in China continues to slow down with  china evergrande filing for US  bankruptcy adding to the already tough economy. The hang seng index looks like it might go down to 17400 level first. We need to see a rebound if not the structure for a bull case would not be so good. China government also have to come out with something quick if not the index could even sink to as low as 17k. As always, proper allocation into the markets is important and as HK pulls back for those without any position, then take the chance to scale in. BUT if you are fully allocated into the HK market then focus elsewhere and let time heal this market.

To know more about our take on the US and key points to look at to scale in, head over to our FACEBOOK PAGE.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy