Nasdaq 100

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , , , ,
24th September, 2023, 11:02 PM

The S&P500 and Nasdaq both posted worst week since March after Fed meeting. As always, we warn not to take up too much positions before any major events. Fed didn’t hike rate as anticipated BUT it always mentioned that it won’t be cutting rates that aggressively in 2024 which saw market selling off. The 10 year yield also started moving up which puts more pressure on the markets especially on Nasdaq.

For this week, there are some critical levels to watch out for especially for the US markets.

S&P500

The S&P500 currently sitting on a first level of support of  4320 could see it move down lower during the week. We could see it test the 4264 level which coincides with the 200ema and the uptrend support line too. This could be the first level to scale in if you have missed out on the year’s rally. This level would represent about a 7% pullback and its well within a healthy market pullback. In fact, a 10% pullback shouldn’t be seen as a surprise given how much markets have ran up too. So get your ammo ready!

Nasdaq100

Nasdaq, the index that is more sensitive towards interest rates movement has already seen about an 8% pullback since the high. But don’t forget this is the market that has risen a whooping 45% for the year too! so an 8% pullback once again shouldn’t be too much to ask for. For the week, we could also see Nasdaq continue to drift lower. The 200ema or 14078 level could be a good point of support. Waiting around there to add more positions into the Nasdaq.

STI

The Straits Times Index pulled back more than expected as the negative sentiments flowed through Asia after Fed’s meeting. STI has found some support at the 3186 level but this might not be able to hold that well. For the week, we could still see more weakness coming in as STI tries to defend the 3180 level. The next critical support would be at 3120.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index saw a strong come back of about 2.2% on Friday as funds put US$1 Billion back into China markets. Investors picked up badly beaten up stocks like Tencent which came to its $300 psychological level. HSI could push higher to 18500 level this week but take note that whenever HSI rallies, it tends to fizzle out. So don’t be overly optimistic on short term rally and be quick on securing profits. The support of 17570 had been tested and is proving to be a credible support for now. Once this holds well we might really see the bottoming for the Hang Seng Index. Fingers CROSSED!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , ,
6th November, 2022, 10:21 PM

The S&P500 ended positive for the month of Oct while also going through one of the most volatile month of the year. We are just less than 2 months to the end of the year and we hope that you all have been turning positive in your trading too. The recent rebound has helped quite a bit of your stock picking with some stocks rising over 15%!

The week was a busy one as we saw Fed raising hike but what’s more important was Fed’s forward statement and where they think interest rate will move up to. Also, on China front, we have seen a monster rally over the past week as rumors about opening up for China sparked a huge rebound. No smoke without fire?? But don’t be too carried away with this rally yet. HSI has hit our 16,350 target and retraced. Will share more in the later part.

Mid-term  elections is on 8 November which might cause some short term volatility. Read on as we share more on the markets.

S&P 500

S&P 500 6th Nov 2022

Mid-term elections on 8th Nov will probably set the tone for the US markets as focus shift to the mid-term for next week. Expecting volatility once again and an upside target of 3900 to be tested soon. S&P 500 closed at the 20ema and we are looking at it to close above that and re-test the resistance of 3900. Nov is also a seasonally higher month so fingers crossed, we might get another good month.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 the weaker of the US indices as it has more tech companies which is more pegged to interest rates movement. It found strength on Friday night bouncing off its 10841 support and closing around the downtrend line resistance. For this week, we’re looking for a break of that downtrend line and a test of that 20ema resistance (11203). We can see that this resistance is acting as a strong resistance so far and price seems to hover around there. Once there it is advisable to take profits and then see how the markets reacts from there. The next resistance is at the 50ema at  11531.

STI

Straits Times Index 6th Nov 2022

YES! STI moved up to our target of 3124 due to the banks and a rebound of our blue chips. Stocks like Sembcorp Industries, SIA, Wilmar all lent a hand helping our index advance. For this week, global events will probably influence our STI, mid-term election and China’s news of reopening might shape our STI. For now current resistance at 3124 area, with near term target at 3160. Banks will continue to lend support but should DBS close below the 5ema our index might start pulling back.  A pullback to 3031 is healthy.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 6th Nov 2022

Saving the best for last! HAHA! HSI saw a surge of over 9% for the week with rumors about China re-opening. Traders started to pile in and shortist furiously covering shorts as the upswing in HSI was just too fierce. As the week progressed, we saw strength in HSI and issued an alert to our clients informing them of the bullishness in the index. Our second target of 16350 was hit and just nice it started to retrace. It closed at the 20ema and we got to watch this closely. As rumors about opening up caused the hang seng index to fly, a meeting on saturday quashes market rumors with China vowing to stick with the their Covid zero policy.  This could give the index a short term blow and we might see weakness coming in once again. BUT, its not the end yet as the volume for this week was significantly higher and we would be observing very closely how the market reacts to this before determining our next move! So stay tune. Bargain hunters stay alert!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
6th March, 2022, 4:46 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another rollercoaster week as fighting rages on. One can only hope and wish for fighting to stop and parties to come back to the negotiation tables. As there is a cease fire going on and talks to resumes on Monday, we can pray that it will be one that is fruitful and not just to buy time and nothing good comes out of it.

Adding fuel to the fire, eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March regarding interest rate hike which might cause some near term volatility again.

Lastly, the annual meetings of two of China’s top political bodies has commenced this weekend. The economic and legislative decisions made at these meetings will provide a roadmap for China’s economic and social development in 2022 and are therefore of high importance to any player in the China market.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to keep tabs on the fighting and development in Ukraine while also keeping track of the impending rising interest rates.

Thursday – Initial Jobless claim, Core CPI numbers ( The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.) Take note as market might react to this too.

The Fear & Greed Index is at extreme FEAR now which we think is once again an opportunity to scale in rather than FLEEING. Of course remember to scale in in batches and not go in all at once. Nobody knows when the market will bottom.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Didn’t get the rebound that we were anticipating but the interesting thing was that the stocks that we have selected all produced positive gains! STI currently supported at around 3215, looking for this to hold before any rebound. BANKS are starting to looking juicy after the sell down, its on our radar now!

S&P 500

Seeing some rebound at the 4290 area with a hammer candlestick which could be positive for some rebound. S&P 500 has corrected about 14% and that 4110 remains critical. The week ahead still hinges on the war and interest rates and for traders you might want to scale back on your lot size. Market is not stable yet. Although we are looking for some upside this week, do ensure for a proper set up before entering. The near term resistance is around 4461.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq still not out of the woods and still facing selling pressure. We might see it move down to 13471 level first as rising interest rate might spook the tech stocks once again. Waiting for a more stable structure to form and a nice candle to form before taking further trading action.

HSI 

Last but not least but one of the most disappointing market for the year, is our HSI. Started well for the week but due to geo political events and more regulatory measures from China, this has really put a dampen on the HSI. We might see it move to 21138 level in the coming week and there we might see more bargain hunting come around. China’s meeting this week also sets the tone to where the HSI might be heading. Don’t give up on this fella yet!

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th February, 2022, 4:45 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week for the US as Ukraine-Russia tension grew and markets pulled back on fear of war breaking out over there.  China continues to push new regulations with the latest on Friday  issuing guidance for online food delivery platforms to reduce service fees to help to lower operating costs for catering businesses.  This sent Meituan (3690.HK) down 15% . Singapore once again fair better than the West BUT it might be time to take a break from the weeks of gains. As we enter a new week, tensions of war along side with rising inflation will continue to haunt the markets. S&P 500 has also closed below its 200 days moving average, are we expecting more downside? Read on to find out more.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence (Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.)

Thursday – US GDP Q4, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories

Friday – Core Durable Goods Order (Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.)

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As mentioned last week, its good for STI to have some pullback so that traders and investors can move in. A spinning top pattern like candlestick formed on Thursday and with Friday’s candle closing lower, we might see more downside this week. Some support levels we’re looking at, 3400 then 3368 first. Banks continue to hold the index up, although we have seen pockets of Blue Chip stocks moving up especially the recovery play ones like SATS, Comfort, SIA Eng and even Thaibev. We’re continuing to focus on these recovery stocks.

HSI 

Just as HSI was gaining some grounds, but China  has decided to enforce more regulations regarding online delivery to reduce their service fees to spur greater economic growth. That sent the HK markets into a dive sparking another round of sell off as investors worry of more regulatory crack down. Tencent, Alibaba, JD all took a hit and we’ll wait for a base to form once again to look for entry. HSI might see more downside to about 23647 before finding some support

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has closed below its 200 days moving average for 2 days straight. Its not a good sign and has to regain above this in the next 2-3 trading days if not be prepared for more downside. Overall, if S&P 500 tests the previous low, we’re only at about 12%  correction which is still possible for a further downside to even 15-18%. So hang on tight as markets grapple with the ever changing tune of Russia- Ukraine tension. Bracing for more downside. to 4290 first.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq also is below the 200 moving average for the past week and is structurally weak which signals more downside. Tech stocks continue to struggle with ongoing concerns of more rate hike throughout the year. A pullback to 13448 wouldn’t be surprising as that would represent about 20% price correction.

Hang in tight if you’re invested into fundamentally good stocks with wide economic moat.

For traders, do stick to your stop loss and be disciplined especially during such times. Hedging is also a strategy to adopt for this year as we uncover the benefits and reasons for this strategy last week.

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy