The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th November, 2022, 4:14 PM

It was a mixed week as Asia markets saw some pullback while US markets had some upside. The usual Jobless claim, Nonfarm payroll would be watched as the next Fed meeting in December draws near. If data starts to suggest that employment is slowing and more Americans are out of job then there could be a chance of a smaller increase in Dec. This could spark the last leg of a year end rally since the low of 3500.

STI

 

Straits Times Index 27th Nov

As expected we saw the Straits Times Index having some pullback nearing our 3220 downside target. 😊 Banks mainly led the downside as we saw some profit taking coming in after a strong run. Also, a pivot in interest rate also could start slowing the movement of bank shares as their future net interest margin would likely be slower. Looking for more downside for the week to about the 20ema and then planning what’s next. The Electronic stock on the other hand saw some life as a slow down in interest rate sparks new life into these Electronic stocks.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 27th nov 2022

The Hang Seng Index also moved as we planned, coming down to our downside target of 17320 and currently being supported by it. A break below this level could see our next target of 16741 which would be a good level to scale in. It might not be a straight down for the week as the bulls are holding the line very well for now. The China central bank cuts the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year which might see a knee jerk reaction looking for a downside overall for the week to come.

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

Did You Notice This About These Two Banks?

24th November, 2022, 11:50 PM

We have seen a good run up for the three local banks on better than expected results and on the back of rising interests rate. But can this run continue on forever? As we know, nope! There will be a time for a break and pullback and there is something we noticed.

DBS 24th Nov 2022

DBS, as we can see has been guided by the 5ema and 10ema. This moving average has been guiding DBS for the last month and has never closed below that BUT today at close, we can see that it has closed below the 5 and 10ema. Is this a sign of more pullback? We think its possible! Its good for the banks to pullback so that those who missed the rally can possibly re-enter. The initial support would be at the 20ema of around $34.75. The Next downside support would then be around $33.84 near the uptrend and horizontal support.  We can see the volume has increased for today too. This might also help support the downside. If you’re looking for a short candidate, this might be one counter. If DBS closes above $36 then this short trade would be invalid.

OCBC 24th Nov 2022

OCBC, also similar to DBS, it has closed below its 5 and 10ema which might signal more downside. An increased in volume might support the downside for OCBC too. It has closed below the short term uptrend line too and the first downside support is around the 20ema which is $12.26. If more weakness comes in then we might see $11.87 on the cards. A close above $12.60 would make the downside invalid. Remember, if you are looking to short always have a TRADE PLAN with a stop loss, entry and target price. Don’t naked short and one can consider using Poems CFD for short or even DLCs!

As for UOB, it hasn’t broke and close below its 5ema so until we see that, then some pullbacks will be on the cards.

If you got any questions, feel free to CONTACT US!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

Sembcorp Industries – [ Equity Fund Raising Dismissed ]

23rd November, 2022, 4:26 PM

Sembcorp Industries 23rd Nov 2022

Sembcorp Industries has been of buzz recently as we saw it started to move from the $2.80 level from October onwards. SCI announced the acquisition of 830MW of renewable assets in China through a joint venture with SPIC. With every acquisition, it will come with some fear of fund raising as the company will need funds to proceed with the take over. The good thing is that management ruled out equity fund raising to finance these acquisitions which gave some boost to the share price.

With acquiring of Xingling New energy, this will help with SCI’s earnings in the future but all these will take time for the share price to reflect these earnings.

For a more shorter term outlook, we have actually alerted our clients twice over the last month when Sembcorp Industries was just trading at $2.88.

Sembcorp Industries has been very good to us as each time we sent an alert for it, we have hit the upside targets resulting in another profitable trade.

Our recent trade alert just sent out yesterday saw our upside target being hit in just one day! Sembcorp Industries displays a very nice trend and if you are able to catch it, you will be rewarded greatly!

So if you would like to receive such alerts, do CONTACT US  and you’ll get back to you as soon! You don’t want to miss out another alert.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

20th November, 2022, 4:06 PM

Week started out well but as we warned that markets are starting to be in the overbought state and so some profit taking would come in very soon. What spoilt the party was St Louis Fed’s president James Bullard coming out to say that interest hike might have to be as high as 7% which was something that market didn’t really want to hear. It saw an initial sell down but it wasn’t as bad as expected as market is starting to get used to such news. Nonetheless, some pullback is healthy as this would allow more to hope in for a further ride.

As news of more layoffs continue to hit the media, recession fears, high interest rate hikes will continue to dominate the media and probably cause more selling in the coming week. It’ll be a shorter week in the US as they are celebrate thanksgiving!

STI

STI moved up to our upside target and once again overshoot a little to about 3300. It was a red candle close, signifying some profit taking going on. As the market has moved up quite a bit, some profit taking is healthy in the overall bigger picutre. The first line of pullback is at around the 5ema at 3260. The next downside support would be 3220 area which is what we’re looking for. Going there would present some good opportunities. We can see our Straits Times Index a little target and with a shorter week in the US, we might see a bit more lackluster movement this week.

HSI

Bingo for the Hang Seng Index as it hit right where we mentioned of around 18360. We can see that the HSI has been consolidating for the last three days failing to break higher. We might see a pullback this week as the HSI closed below the 18k around number support. A pullback once again is healthy and the first level could be 17320 then 16740. This would present good opportunities to scale back into the HK market which recently have had so much positive vibe. Keeping a look out and don’t miss this opportunity!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

13th November, 2022, 3:44 PM

A fantastic week for those who are on the long side as market came back with a vengeance as thursday’s CPI data came lower than expected. This sparked a rally never seen for years and that is why TIME in the market is important! Many upside targets were hit as traders and investors all piled in the long side while shortist were forced to cover their positions. We might see some short term profit taking coming in very soon as the market has rallied quite a bit and so lets take a look at some levels that profit taking might set in.

STI

STI has exceed our upside expectation as CPI data helped lift the general mood up. It is currently at some resistance at around 3223 level but we still might see the Straits Times Index pushing up further to 3273 level. Indicators are starting to go into the overbought region but its not grossly overbought. There is a gap that will have to be eventually filled so we won’t want to go too heavy on the long side as many of our targets were met, so just enjoying the remaining ride.

HSI

Hang Seng Index is on FIRE as news of China finally easing up a little by cutting quarantine time. This is definitely a good step towards opening up and market can’t wait to rejoice. We might see further upside in the coming week as HSI had a nice closing, bouncing off the downtrend support line. Upside resistance at 17770 then 18360. Indicators pointing up and moving towards the overbought region. Enjoy this rebound until we spot some weakness.

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

30th October, 2022, 2:48 PM

US markets had a good showing as expected. We have been giving updates about the potential rebound for the US and it has hit our initial target of 3850 for the S&P500. Despite the weakness in tech stocks due to earnings, we still saw S&P finishing the week up by over 3% a very nice rebound.

For this week, all eyes will be on Fed’s rate hike of 0.75% which is pretty much priced in BUT what market will be looking out for would be Fed’s willingness to slow the rate hike and or start cutting it back sooner than later. As market has rebound a fair bit, any aggressive speech by the Fed might send market down once again. But a friendlier and less aggressive stand by the Fed might give market more legs to move up. The PCE data released on Friday saw inflation at a high level but at least its not increasing at a fast pace.

As usual, taking some profit ahead of such key event is prudent. One shouldn’t be betting on either direction as this is pure gamble as to what the Fed might do. We rather wait and act accordingly.

STI

Straits Times Index 30th Oct 2022

As mentioned, not shorting for the STI as its already quite depressed as we saw the Straits Times Index having some rebound. Banks were the main driver as UOB came out with better than expected results. In fact, the STI broke above the short term downtrend line signaling more upside in the coming week. Currently resisted at the 20ema, we might see the STI testing 3090 then 3124 very soon. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s meeting to also give direction.

HSI

No end in sight for selling in HK as Xi’s absolute’s power gave no confidence to the market. No relaxation on Covid zero policy gave rise to more selling. How long can China keep this up? Its hard to tell but with not much positive news flow coming out, our weightage on China has reduced and focusing more on US and Singapore. Until we see some positive news flow and an overall change in China’s stand, every bounce is a short!

US is getting exciting and you don’t want to miss out another potential rebound. So do head over to our facebook to check out our views and updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

23rd October, 2022, 4:22 PM

Do note that Singapore market will be closed on Monday (24th Oct) for Deepavali holiday. It will resume trading on 25th Oct Tuesday.

Meanwhile, US market finally had a good close on Friday after a volatile week. S&P500 managed to break and stay above the 3700 level which we might see more upside in the coming week. Big Tech companies are also reporting this week with Alphabet kicking it off on Tuesday, Microsoft, Meta on Wednesday and Apple , Amazon on Thursday which could help boost the Nasdaq.

Its about a week more before Fed meet to increase rate, so we’re taking this week to play a rebound before going light once again. The 10 year yield also saw some retracement but still above 4%

As for China, nothing very exciting came out from China after a week long of meeting only that the former President Hu Jintao was unceremoniously removed from the closing speech. Market was disappointed as we saw some sell down in the HSI and China A50. As expectations are all priced in, we might now see some rebound in the coming week.

STI

STI went below our downside target of 3000 and its a bit too late to short now before any meaningful rebound. We saw some palm oil stocks having a good rebound especially First Resources. A good 10% upside for this rebound gave a good boost to the morale. For the STI, the downside could be till around 2900 after which we might be rebound. As mentioned, a bit too late for shorts. Looking for rebound instead before shorting.

HSI

Same thing, the hang seng index also saw some downside to 16200 level, in line with our downside target, we are looking at the 16k level to hold before deciding on any long position. CCP meeting has ended and President Xi has sealed his power for another term and with no end in Covid lockdown any bounce from the China market would be met with selling. For now, more short term trading while waiting for bigger news to flow out of China. Focusing more on US for now.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

16th October, 2022, 7:17 PM

Disappointing CPI data as inflation still remains stubbornly high. We saw a really WILD ride as Nasdaq moved over 5% in intraday movement on Thursday night. Market actually clawed back its losses on Thursday night coming back from being down 3% to ending up 2%. But on Friday US markets gave up all gains. We know it can be frustrating when markets swing to wildly so its very important to reduce your lot size and ensuring you’re discipling in cutting loss. Save your bullets to fight another day.

For this week , China’s CCP meeting will be focus. New party leaders will be chosen, growth plans laid out and China’s plan on the international stage will also be discussed. Markets might also take some cue in the party’s plan with regards to battling Covid. Many are hoping that China will ease their stand on Covid lock downs so that more economic activity can start. But at the same time, let’s not be too hopefully.

STI

Our Straits Times Index also came off as expected before some rebound after CPI data but was short lived as traders took profit on a relief rally. With Friday’s negative close, we might start off in the red for the week and probably look to fight our way through the week. We might move down to 3000 a round number support before any rebound that might come during the later part of the week.

HSI

After coming off as mentioned last week , the Hang Seng Index tried to look for a rebound but like STI, it was short lived. The 5ema acted as the resistance and HSI couldn’t stay above it. For this week, the CCP meeting will probably give us guidance to where the HSI might go to. It might consolidate around the 16k region and only if it manages to stay above the 5ema then we might see further rebound to 17500 level.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

9th October, 2022, 4:21 PM

Good news is bad news for markets now and till market is about to normalize good news and bad news, we’ll continue to see violent moves up and down. Unemployment rate came in lower at 3.5% while payroll rises by 263k all better than expected and instead of cheering on the data, markets sold off. As unemployment comes down, this would translate into spending which means inflation might still be stubbornly high. For this week, all eyes will be on CPI data coming out on 13 oct. If CPI data comes in above expectation then expect more SELLING!!

HSI

HSI bounced off our support of around 16880 but the bounce was quickly met with resistance which is the downtrend line and the 20ema. For this week , we’re expecting weakness in HSI once again as global sentiments continue to be weak. Immediate support is at 17732 and downside target is around 17000. Once again, awaiting to see what happens at the CCP 20th Congress Meeting to get a clue what policies might be introduced.

STI 

STI also saw some rebound after some consolidation and currently at the 5ema support. But with Friday’s sell down, we might see more downside for the STI to around the 3090 level. All eyes on CPI data before any moves and as usual we always caution before going into any big data as any disappointment would see markets selling off and you don’t want to be caught in that.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

2nd October, 2022, 10:42 PM

Dow closes worst September in 20 years and stocks plunge as bear market intensifies. For those in the bear camp, you’ll probably be rejoicing as markets breaks June low with not much recovery in sight. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation the PCE  is the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for consumer behavior. It showed signs of acceleration last week which caused more sell down. The S&P 500 tried its best to hold the 3600 support but gave way at the later part of the trading day. We might see more downside for the coming week as trader would pile on their shorts when the key support is broken. It’s about 2 more weeks before the CPI data for Sept is released and once again markets will look to this data for clue of inflation numbers. Overall, we’re waiting for a rebound rather than shorting now.
STI

Pullback was very much expected as Reits and banks were sold down during the week due to raising interest rates. The Straits Times Index came off after it broke down from out downtrend line we drew and more than expected as stocks took a hit with renewed fear of raising inflation. For this week, STI might try to consolidate around the 3100 area before any moves. A week’s consolidation is healthy for us.

HSI

HSI still continuing its march down as market looks ahead to the CCP meeting coming this month. All eyes on that and Xi’s future plan for China with regards to Covid.  On October 1, China celebrates its 73rd National Day, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China. National Day also marks the beginning of the week-long holiday known as Golden Week. Due to Covid19 restriction, this has caused quite a bit of chaos as travelers try to make their way home. For this week, HK side might be slightly muted as China is closed for the week and HK will have a public holiday on 4th Oct. A zoom out for HSI to Oct 2021 might give some support for the HSI around 16800 level. We could see HSI slowly drift down to this level before CCP meeting.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy