Month: September 2023

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , , , ,
24th September, 2023, 11:02 PM

The S&P500 and Nasdaq both posted worst week since March after Fed meeting. As always, we warn not to take up too much positions before any major events. Fed didn’t hike rate as anticipated BUT it always mentioned that it won’t be cutting rates that aggressively in 2024 which saw market selling off. The 10 year yield also started moving up which puts more pressure on the markets especially on Nasdaq.

For this week, there are some critical levels to watch out for especially for the US markets.

S&P500

The S&P500 currently sitting on a first level of support of  4320 could see it move down lower during the week. We could see it test the 4264 level which coincides with the 200ema and the uptrend support line too. This could be the first level to scale in if you have missed out on the year’s rally. This level would represent about a 7% pullback and its well within a healthy market pullback. In fact, a 10% pullback shouldn’t be seen as a surprise given how much markets have ran up too. So get your ammo ready!

Nasdaq100

Nasdaq, the index that is more sensitive towards interest rates movement has already seen about an 8% pullback since the high. But don’t forget this is the market that has risen a whooping 45% for the year too! so an 8% pullback once again shouldn’t be too much to ask for. For the week, we could also see Nasdaq continue to drift lower. The 200ema or 14078 level could be a good point of support. Waiting around there to add more positions into the Nasdaq.

STI

The Straits Times Index pulled back more than expected as the negative sentiments flowed through Asia after Fed’s meeting. STI has found some support at the 3186 level but this might not be able to hold that well. For the week, we could still see more weakness coming in as STI tries to defend the 3180 level. The next critical support would be at 3120.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index saw a strong come back of about 2.2% on Friday as funds put US$1 Billion back into China markets. Investors picked up badly beaten up stocks like Tencent which came to its $300 psychological level. HSI could push higher to 18500 level this week but take note that whenever HSI rallies, it tends to fizzle out. So don’t be overly optimistic on short term rally and be quick on securing profits. The support of 17570 had been tested and is proving to be a credible support for now. Once this holds well we might really see the bottoming for the Hang Seng Index. Fingers CROSSED!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
17th September, 2023, 11:17 PM

Although Singapore’s F1 night race is over there is another exciting event coming up which is the Fed meeting happening this week. Fed will meet once again to decide if they will hike interest rates. The probability for the hike is only 2% while 98% thinks that Fed won’t be hiking.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Although Sep’s meeting most likely should not see a hike, we might see a might in Nov if inflation starts creeping up. So lets not celebrate too early. We could still see some pullback in the markets after this.

STI

The Straits Times Index showed strength for the week, as it touched the downtrend support line. A consolidation happened over there and started to take off. Banks led the way while other blue chips like Sembcorp industries, Keppel Corp helped to bring the index up. US closed negative on Friday night which we could see the negative sentiments flowing through Asia. We could see a small pullback for the STI before making an attempt towards 3320 area.

HSI

 

The Hang Seng Index also showed strength towards the end of the week as China’s retail sales showed some signed of improvement which came as a surprised. We can see from the chart that it was consolidating for the week before pushing up. It is currently resisted by the 20ema and also coinciding with the downtrend resistance line. Furthermore, with the negative close in the US we could see HK pulling back too. Waiting for HSI to break above the 20ema for a clearer picture and strength for the HSI. The next target could be 19730.

Head over to our Facebook page for more updates on the US market.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

ARM IPO – Listing Tonight, Should You Chase?

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market
14th September, 2023, 8:42 PM

 

Arm is set to trade tonight with an IPO price of $51. It is debut as the blockbuster IPO of the year and hopes of it to rejuvenate the IPO market. TSMC is investing up to 100million in ARM Holding’s IPO and many big names like AMAZON, APPLE, MICROSOFT, NVIDIA are also said to be some of the anchor investor.

A common question we get is, can buy?  With such hype, a natural feeling to want to quickly get in on the opening day is understandable. Here’s a little snapshot of what they do and our thoughts at the end if one should chase the price.

ARM chips are made by companies including Amazon, Alphabet, AMD, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm and even Samsung. Arm doesn’t build its own chips but anything when a company builds a chip based on ARM’s architecture, ARM takes a fee or royalty. For example, all of Apple’s chip is built based on Arm’s architecture and it takes a fee on that. Or whenever you buy anything that runs on Nvidia chip, Arm also takes a small fee.  So they earn these recurring fees every year.

In terms of market share, they own about 99% of the mobile phone application processor, 64% of the embedded computing market.

They have a wide economic moat, a good brand monopoly with a vast library of intellectual properties. They also have a large and established ecosystem.

There are also risk involved like customer concentration. Their top5 customer makes up 57% of their revenue and ARM China makes up about 24%.

As they are going IPO, we can only see the last 3 years of financial data. Having a longer data would be better as it provides more insight to a company’s profitability and sustainably

-Revenue was for from 2022-2023, net income was -4.5% while free cash flow increased from 2022-2023 but it decreased from 2021-2022.

So in conclusion, I won’t be chasing the price tonight. And like most BIG HYPE IPOs theat were listed, it tends to come off after awhile when the hype dies down. Referencing from some big IPO like meta, Airbnb and even Rivian, they all dropped eventually after going IPO. Will ARM be like that? I would prefer to be on the side lines and not chase and wait for a retracement first.  THAT IS WHEN I will be looking at it. Currently at $51 it might be a little too expensive for my liking.

Want to know when i might get into ARM??

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
10th September, 2023, 10:29 PM

It was no surprise that markets fell through the week with the S&P500 falling 1.5% for the week. We’ve been warning about Sept being a weaker month and we’re currently seeing that weakness flowing through now. How deep will this pullback be? We did mention about this in our previous webinar and a pullback of about 5-10% is within expectation.

And this week would be interesting as CPI & PPI will be out on wed & thursday. This would be crucial as Oil is starting to spike and there has been murmur about inflation moving up. This week’s data would be useful in helping to decide if Fed would increase their rates at the next meeting. So do take note of this.

STI

STI didn’t go as planned as we the overall bearishness in the US & HK market flowed into our Straits Times Index. We didn’t see a continuation of the rebound and now could see some downside instead. It is currently at the support level of around 3200 and if this break we could see the downside to 3180 then 3150. Looking at more downside for the week.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index also pulled back on worries about China’s property stock falling out plus a slowing economy doesn’t add well to the mix. It was a short week as HK was closed due typhoon warning. For the week, we could see more downside again taking the Hang Seng Index to 17500 level. Wait for a base to form before adding and of course with the right allocation.

Head over to our FB page for more updates on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Why You Should Be Watching This

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market
6th September, 2023, 9:32 PM

In our previous webinar in August we shared the current market outlook and whether is it time to start scaling in. Should you be afraid of this current pullback or should you take action and ignore the news?

We also talked about Hong Kong/China market and whether you should ignore these markets given how depressed they are.

Lastly, we shared 3 more stocks to look at for the rest of the year and answered many questions during our Q&A which includes TESLA, CRM, Vinfast and so many more.

Watch the video recording OVER HERE.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
3rd September, 2023, 10:00 PM

US market ended up for the week after PCE and unemployment data. We can see that the momentum of the market is starting to slow down and market doesn’t run too much on. We are in the month of Sept and seasonally this is a weaker month BUT there could still be a chance of it ending up and TAKE THIS CHANCE TO ADD SHARES IF YOU MISSED OUT PREVIOUSLY. For the month of Sept, Fed meeting would be one key event to look at. Market is widely anticipating Fed not to increase this round as inflation is showing signs of slow down and economy is also slow down. This could in turn bring a pause in rates which could bring another rally for the markets. =)

STI

Straits Times Index 3rd Sept 2023

The Straits Times Index  rebound to our target of around 3230 level and currently being resisted. For the week ahead, we could see it break this resistance. Blue chip stock like Keppel Corp, SATS looks poised for a breakout. We’re targeting about 3295 for the next week or so as stocks are showing signs of rebound. We managed to catch the rebound in the banks which we mentioned TWO WEEKS back!

HSI

Hang Seng Index 3rd Sept

Hang Seng Index had a shorter week due to typhoon saola which shut the HK market down on friday. We were expecting resistance when HK went to 18522 our target, true enough we saw a pullback from the HK market. It is now currently at the 5ema support. We could see it consolidate over here with the downside support at 18053 and the resistance at 18522. After that we could see it move up to 18814 level at the gap resistance. Proceed with caution for the HK market as the market needs time to resolve its slowing economy and one way is through a big STIMULUS from the China Govt before it can really take off.

Proceed to our FACEBOOK for US markets!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy