Month: November 2021

The Week Ahead (9) – [Special Edition, Omicron! ]

Kelwin & Roy Omicron , , , , ,
28th November, 2021, 10:10 PM

By now you should have come to know of the  new variant of concern OMICRON! Its splashed across all new agencies and have caused quite a bit of alarm in the world! Even in Singapore PM Lee said that Singapore must be mentally prepared for “more bumps along the road” as it deals with an evolving virus. We might be forced to take steps back before moving forward again. 😢

It is the fifth variant of concern that has emerged since the pandemic first gripped the world almost two years ago. The highly transmissible Delta variant was declared a variant of concern in 2021.

We’re not scientist and are just making sense of whatever news that have been released so far so that we can better understand how it might impact the markets. So here are some findings so far which can be read up more online

  1. High number of cases increase risk of mutations. The more a virus spreads, the more chance it has to mutate. Thousands of small changes have been seen in coronavirus so far – most with little impact.
  2. Some mutation lead to new variants. A virus changes in a way that helps it to survive. Scientists are particularly concerned about changes to the spike protein – the part that helps it enter the human cells. The real concern is that this virus is now radically different to the original that emerged at first.
  3. How transmissible is Omicron and how deadly is it. Will the current vaccine still be effective against this new strain?
  4. So far according to the first South African doctor to alert the authorities with the omicron variant has symptoms that are unusual BUT MILD.
  5. Pfizer said an updated version of its COVID-19 vaccine will be ‘ready in 100 DAYS’ if new Omicron variant is resistant to its current vaccine.

So with all these news we’re likely to see market being volatile as there could be good and bad news releasing from time to time. Countries have also moved to close their boarders with some of the African states but  the new strain could already be inside most of the countries.

Most experts have also said that they need about 2-3 more weeks to come up with more data on Omicron.

Meanwhile, some pointers which we shared earlier on with our clients on Friday.

For traders, stick to your short term trading plan. Most likely some of your positions would have cut loss, stick to your plan and don’t go against the market. Trying to bottom pick now is a bit too EARLY as we are still in the early stage of this variant. Follow your  proper trade set up and remain calm.

For investors, take this pullback or even correction to scale into great stocks like APPLE, Microsoft , Metaverse related stocks (will cover more on this soon! ) Google, Nvidia. Even Alibaba, Tencent and so many more present good opportunities for the long term. Don’t fear this pullback instead go with fundamentally strong companies with a wide economic moat!

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week 

STI

STI broke down after a period of consolidation due to news of the new variant. It it at the first uptrend support BUT we’re not optimistic for it to hold. Travel stocks like SIA, SATS  took a bigger hit due to a potential cut in travel. We might see further downside to that horizontal support which is also very close to the second uptrend line (3110) and where some bargain hunting might come in. The next level of support would be 3033 close to the 3000 psychological support. Don’t try to catch the falling knife.

HSI

Looking for more downside for HSI too. Further downside to around 22530. A break above that downtrend line would then signal some confidence to us. So in the meantime we’re more of taking a wait and see approach for HK side.

For more analysis on the US market , you can click HERE!

Friends! It has been a bittersweet year for many and with this new variant we can be feeling discouraged, tired , frustrated and weary. Its perfectly normal to feel that and its good to take time off to reflect, relax and recharge! The road ahead is long and bumpy but look UP and find meaning and purpose. Carry on friends. =)

If you would like to reach out to us, we can be easily contacted HERE

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Micron Technology (MU) – [ Up Another 10%, Is It Too Late Now? ]

Kelwin & Roy Micron Technology , ,
22nd November, 2021, 7:44 PM

Micron Technology (MU) – [ Up Another 10%, Is It Too Late Now? ] MU 22nd Nov 2021

Chart Source: Poemsview 22nd Nov 2021

Micron (MU) saw a nice pop of around 8% on Friday after the chip maker received the selection of “Top Pick” at Evercore ISI! Good job for those who read the blog and took action!

Analyst C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI has high expectations for MU stock. Muse noted that the prices for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) are likely to bottom out in the first half of 2022. However, since DRAM prices have yet to do so, Muse rationalizes that investors are still hesitant about MU stock. Once the price actually bottoms out, investors will pour money into stocks like Micron in a “fast and furious” manner. For this reason, Muse has set a $100 price target on MU stock, representing a 20% upside from current prices.

So is it too late to get in now? Well, the risk reward to us is not on our side, our upside resistance is around $90 and that’s where we might see some profit taking coming in. For a quick trade we might want to ensure that MU stays above $83 with a tight stop loss of around $82. As we mentioned MU earlier in the Nov, and it has already gone up 20% so for us entering now might not be to our liking! Remember, we like to try to  enter the trade when the Risk Reward is on our side and where there is a higher probability of winning!

We hope you learnt something from our post so far!

Trade safe!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead (8) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
21st November, 2021, 11:55 PM

The Week Ahead (8) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Once again, Electronic stocks, chip makers took center stage as these saw a very nice move up for the whole of last week. And we’re glad to have caught them like MU, AEM, UMS.

Penny stocks are also starting to fire up , so if you’re into penny trading then get ready. BUT do remember to have your proper stops in place as we all know how volatile pennies can be.

Another major event was Alibaba’s results which resulted in a huge sell down while JD enjoyed  nice rally after its results. What an exciting week it was. So now lets look ahead!

Recap for STI & HSI 

STI was flattish this week with DBS pushing to and of course our Electronic stocks, AEM, UMS, ISDN and Nanofilm pushing higher. The rest of the market was actually sluggish and very range bound.

Over in Hong Kong, JD saw a nice rally after its results and breaking above its resistance. Whereas Alibaba took a beating BUT this might present some good opportunity for those who don’t have Alibaba in their portfolio.

Markets were rough in HK after its initial move up which then saw a bigger drop towards the end of the week.

Key Events to Watch For 

The White House said last week that President Joe Biden will likely decide before Thanksgiving whether to keep incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell in place for another term or promote current Fed Governor Lael Brainard to the position.

Analysts expect some stock market volatility around the announcement, particularly if Brainard is chosen.

Brainard is seen as more dovish than powell and could consider the timing for further rate hikes.

Monday – Existing Home Sales

Wednesday – Core Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and crude oil inventories

FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday & Friday are off for the US market due to thanksgiving

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week 

STI

Chart Source: Poemsview 21st nov2021

STI getting in a sideways consolidation but be alert for any move up or down as this might set the direction for the next coming weeks. A downside could be seen till the 40ema whereas the upside might break above that previous high. We still prefer to see individual stock at this juncture as the STI looks undecided for the moment. It is flirting with the 20ema and only with a stronger close and rebound above it then will we be more convicted of an upmove.

HSI

HSI had  a rebound but like STI it could not sustain the rally. A new downtrend resistance can be seen and a new short term uptrend line for the HSI has also been established. HSI could start trading within this range before a more decisive move. If that uptrend breaks we might see more downside to 23,800.

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

 

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – [ Keeping A Lookout, Technical Outlook]

Kelwin & Roy TSM , ,
19th November, 2021, 6:57 PM

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – [ Keeping A Lookout, Technical Outlook]TSM 19th Nov2021

Chart source: Poems2.0.com

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is currently in a large sideways movement. We can see that the upper resistance is around $125.6 and the lower support is at $107.9. The middle support band is around $116.50. TSM had a big push last night with a green candle with volume. It is still in consolidation and has not broken out of the band. We need a clean break of the resistance of $125.61 then we might see it move higher to $131 and even $139. Failing to break might see it move lower to the middle support before it tries to attempt to breakout.

Take a look at Disney and see if you spot anything similar?

Downside support at $107. If this breaks TSM might fall to even $95 area. We’re not hoping for this situation.

Keeping a close lookout for the break.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Visa (V) – [ Nearing The Bottom? Time To Get In?

Kelwin & Roy Visa ,
18th November, 2021, 7:57 PM

Visa (V) – [ Nearing The Bottom? Time To Get In?

Visa don’t really need much introduction as most of us would probably own a credit card/debit card under the payment service of Visa or Mastercard. It is considered an Oligopoly as these two are the biggest in the payment technology space. Visa being the biggest. If you actually remember this picture and commercial then you’re probably from my era. Haha!

As the world adopts towards the Global electronic payments, the demand for Visa and Mastercard will continue to cement their growth and riding through this trend. The global digital payment market is estimated to be worth US$5 trillion. Remember that Visa is a not credit card company.

Visa has a Wide economic moat as the other competitor is Mastercard while American Express is far back and not really considered a big threat.

Lets take a look at the chart to see where Visa is now and is an entry on the cards?

Visa 18th Nov 2021

Chart source: Poems2.0 18th Nov 2021

We saw Visa having a big gap down due to news that Amazon UK customers will no longer be able to pay with credit cards issued by Visa beginning next year! What a bummer! To rub salt to the wound , Buffet has reduced his stake in Visa and Mastercard too ! But is this all doom and gloom for Visa? Or does this spell an opportunity to pick up some Visa at a lower price?

From the charts, the round  number $200 acts as a psychological support, further support at around $196 then $192 gives investors a good chance to scale into Visa. An entry of round $200-205 might be an area to consider for an investor first tranche into Visa.

There is potential for Visa as world economy continues to recover and people adapting digital payment.  Remember to clearly define your investment horizon as this is important in your investment journey.

Looking for a good entry for Visa ,are you?

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&roy

Nanofilm – [ Alerting Before The Run]

Kelwin & Roy Nanofilm , ,
17th November, 2021, 7:43 PM

Nanofilm – [ Alerting Before The Run]

Would you like to be alerted before a stock run rather than chasing it? Well, this is what our Clients have been receiving. Direct message sent to their handphone via whatsapp. For this round, it was Nanofilm, it was back in August that we sent it out after the big fall due to some internal tussle. And the most recent was just less than a month ago in Oct.

Nanofilm 17th Nov 2021

Chart source: AdvisorXs 17th Nov2021

Nanofilm has seen risen over 8% since it broke that $3.80 resistance to a high of $4.13 today. Volume is also the highest for the month which indicates more interest by traders and investors. This might help push prices up to our next target of $4.21 and eventually $4.40 area. Nanofilm has consolidated for awhile and with all that stored up energy we’re hoping for a higher push in the coming days!

Missed out on this trade?

Don’t want to miss out on another trade alert? Want to know what stock we’re looking at next?

Then JOIN our growing community and see how you can receive such trade alert sent to your phone.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

Micron Technology (MU) – [Up 10%, Following Up From Our Previous Post]

Kelwin & Roy Micron Technology , ,
16th November, 2021, 8:02 PM

Micron Technology (MU) – [Up 10%, Following Up From Our Previous Post]

Its been two weeks since we posted on the stock Micron Technology (MU) and ever since then we have seen it moving higher. It has broken above our downtrend line resistance which we drew and started a nice move up. Micron Technology has hit our first upside target of $76 very close to a 10% gain in under two weeks. We’re bullish on our $78 target and might even look at the next upside target of around $82.90. =) Of course, it will take time and not move in a straight line.

Take a look at the chart below for more details.

Micron Technology 16th Nov 2021

Chart source: AdvisorXs 16th Nov 2021

We hope you managed to learn something and catch a glimpse of how we analyze the market without complicated indicators and arrows.  Stay tune for our next post!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

UMS – [ Why We Did This Yesterday Only After Results ]

Kelwin & Roy UMS , , , , , , ,
16th November, 2021, 7:25 PM

UMS – [ Why We Did This Yesterday Only After Results ]

UMS just reported its results last Friday with an earnings of $15.1 million for 3QFY2021, up 17% y-o-y. For the nine months, earnings shot up by 43% y-o-y to $50.4 million to a record while revenue was up 53% y-o-y to $184 million.

The record numbers came from the strong growth in the global semiconductor industry.

After looking at the results, we decided to alert our EXCLUSIVE CLIENTS on this trade as we saw that UMS might have the potential to break that $1.42 horizontal resistance. Why didn’t we alert them earlier? The reason to this is simple, we don’t like TRADING over results as results could swing any way and also depends on how analyst see it, their forward statement which is too much to anticipate. But for investors it would be a different story. We hold until the fundamentals changes.

We have seen far too many stocks gapping down after results not matching up and traders getting stuck. We like to err on the side caution and wait for results to see if momentum continues. Don’t forget, UMS ran up before results and if results didn’t meet expectations…then bye bye. If you trade the US markets, you know how brutal it can be if results misses expectation, a drop of 20-30% is possible.

As UMS was consolidating for awhile, and a break above that $1.42 might spark a new wave up, so that  was one rationale on alerting our clients. Also, it reported a good set of results. We’re glad it has hit our first upside target of $1.48 and now we got a nice margin of safety.

UMS 16th Nov 2021

Chart Source: AdvisorXs 16th Nov 2021

From the chart above, we might see UMS move higher even to that upper channel of around $1.70. Of course, it won’t move in a straight line. =).

Don’t want to miss out on another trade alert? Want to know what stock we’re looking at next?

Then JOIN our growing community and see how you can receive such trade alert sent to your phone.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead (7) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
14th November, 2021, 4:36 PM

We’re into the middle of Nov and we saw some pullback in the overall market BUT a certain sector stood out in our market! Electronic stocks which we mentioned in our previous  THE WEEK AHEAD post to look out for saw a nice push ahead after AEM’s results sending it to its all time high. Frencken also a boost after its results.

Recap for STI & HSI 

Banks pushed higher last week only with OCBC lagging behind. Once again it wasn’t a broad base rally  and being selective on certain sectors is key. Electronic stock was a sector that we were watching and since then it has started moving. We might see the laggards for this sector to start moving as some spillover effect takes place. SPH was gapping up due to bidding wars which saw its price moved up about 10% for the week. Energy sector is currently taking a breather.

Over in Hong Kong, things are heating up as support was tested and held and we saw a general rebound in HK stocks bringing some much needed rally in the sluggish market. Tech stock saw a good rebound and Xiaomi is a stock that is on our watchlist.

Key Events to Watch For 

  1. Core Retail Sales on Tuesday
  2. Building Permits  in the US to see how the housing market is doing , Crude oil inventories to see how demand for oil and economy activity is. Take note for oil related stocks.  All these are happening on Wednesday.
  3. We have jobless claims on Thursday to see how employment is.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week 

STI

STI broke below thee uptrend line that has been supporting it and has pushed down to the 20ema also coinciding with our horizontal  support level. We haven’t been that bullish in the STI for the past weeks as most of the underlying components were not really moving. Some bounce came as the 20ema held it up but we’re not very bullish yet and might want to wait for clearer signs. Continue being selective as we can see that Electronic sector is reaping rewards. The bearish candle on friday might signal more downside and with a better base formed then will we have more conviction on the STI.

HSI

And there you have it, HSI being the beast of the east saw a very nice rebound off our support line. It came off with a hammer last Wednesday and crossing above our downtrend line and reaching our next level of resistance of around 25520 which is the uptrend resistance line. HSI does look like its gathering strength to break that resistance and charge towards the next resistance of 26240 area. Looking out for beaten down HK stocks!

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

TESLA – [ A Pullback Is Healthy, What Levels Are We Looking At?]

Kelwin & Roy Tesla , , ,
8th November, 2021, 7:34 PM

TESLA – [ A Pullback Is Healthy, What Levels Are We Looking At?]

TESLA is the No.1 google search in America within the auto space. The battery-electric Tesla is Googled 2.24 million times a month in the U.S., followed by Toyota with 1.83 million. And in case you haven’t read, Tesla has crossed the 1 trillion market cap joining in the ranks of Amazon and Alphabet. As you also know, we have been bullish on Tesla ever since last year, blogging it a couple of times in 2020 and even in Aug 2021.

Its a stock that we want to hold and with the news of Elon musk potentially selling  after twitter users vote YES! 

But is that a bad thing? Well, to us its a healthy pullback which offer us an opportunity to enter and especially if you don’t own an tesla shares. With news of Musk potentially selling shares, Tesla is down over 5% in pre-market to $1156. Fund managers might also potentially take some profits off the table which might lead to some more downward pressure.

Lets take at the chart for some possible support entry points.

Tesla 8th Nov 2021

For such a powerful uptrend we will use the 10 and 20ema as the potential support. Some levels of support might be around 1145, 1027 and then 950 at that gap up. $950 to us is  a strong support. But for investors, scaling  in batches  (dollar cost averaging) when it comes down is something an investor might want to consider at those support levels we mentioned. Stay alert!

To The Moon!! 🚀🚀