The Week Ahead Jan 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

15th January, 2023, 9:58 PM

Another good week for the markets as CPI came in line and markets generally took it well. US and HK markets ended up for the week while our STI covered the gap as mentioned before having some pullback. Reporting season has started in the US with major banks kicking it off. More companies will be reporting and markets will look at major tech, banks to gauge the strength of the economy.  Very exciting developments in the US as S&P500 closes above the 200ema!

Do take a look at the earnings calendar https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar/ to ensure when your favourite companies will be reporting.

Its a week before Chinese New Year so we might see markets slowing down especially HK/China as they will be going for a longer break after this.

STI

Straits Times Index

As shared last week, STI has hit our upside resistance of 3336 covering the gap and pulling back after. STI might go for a re-test of that resistance level. Our STI so far is in a wider sideway consolidation after a good run last year. And only with breaking of 3336 then we might see STI moving towards the 3450 mark. Watch for the re-test first.

HSI

HSI pulled back to the 5ema and went back up as expected! For such a powerful uptrend which we mentioned, the 5ema will be the first support and guide. So far, the HSI hasn’t closed below the 5ema which indicates the strength of the index. We might see HSI testing the 22106 upside resistance in the coming week before any pulback! What a crazy ride for the HSI!

You don’t want to miss our take on S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

So head over to our Facbook page for a read

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Jan 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

8th January, 2023, 9:31 PM

A very good day to all! And happy new year to our readers. The week ended up and this is an interesting read with regards to an UP week for the start of the year which we might see an up month and even an up year. DO take it with a pinch of salt.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/01/03/how-to-assess-the-stock-market-january-effect-and-january-barometer-for-2023/?sh=63dfa1e4de62

Markets ended up despite the job data coming slightly above expectation and wages grew slower than expected. Markets were hopefully that Fed might change their stance with inflation numbers starting to tame off. This is a good sign as it can be seen that bad news is being absorbed. So in the near term, we might see more upside.

Greed and Fear index by cnn is also showing around netural.

HSI

You can just sense the excitement and the bullishness from our post! With Hong Kong/China opening up fully, this sets the tone for further rally and with every pullback comes an opportunity to enter . For a strong uptrend, first support would be at the 5ema (20600) then the 10ema of around 20500 and near the uptrend line. Ideal case would be 20k and that’s why bargain hunters would be out! Maintain bullishness in HK.

STI

Our dear STI actually outperformed the markets ending 2022 UP 5% while major markets like HSI and S&P500 all down over 20%.

So what will happen to our STI next week? With a positive close on Wall Street, we might see it move higher to cover the potential gap last May which could take us to around 3340! It is currently at the 5ema support and our banks are showing some bullish momentum which could help push the STI up.

You don’t want to miss our take on S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

So head over to our Facbook page for a read

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead Dec 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

11th December, 2022, 2:56 PM

Wholesale data disappointed the markets with data coming in at 0.1% higher than expected. Markets reacted and started selling. It tried to recover during the day but still ended down after a good fight.

With two key data to look out for, markets this week might be slighted muted as it awaits the data.

Two key data are CPI (Consumer price index) on Tuesday, If this comes out higher than expected, we might see more sell down as hopes for a smaller rate hike on Wednesday might be diminished.

And on Wednesday, Fed will decide if it will do a 0.5% or 0.75% rate hike if it goes with a 0.5% hike, market should move up for a year end rally. Markets will also look for clues if Fed will start pivoting and start slowing rate hike to even 0.25% for the next round of meeting. This could also help add fuel to the recent rally. Key resistance for S&P500is around 4080 and a break above that could see S&P500 move up to 4250.

STI

Bingo! STI came down to our downside target of 3224 as mentioned last week.

Overall ,our straits times index is trading in a side ways movement with the immediate support being at 3222 while the upper resistance is at 3303. If we break the support of 3222, we might see further downside to 3177. With two key data to look out for, markets this week might be slighted muted as it awaits the data. With the negative close on Wall Street, we might see a negative opening first then fight her way through the day. As big data is coming out this week, we prefer to go lighter for the week before re-entering as it could shape the week after that.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index is on steroids! After a slight pullback it continues to march on towards our 20k target! We could see it tip over the 20k before any retracement as traders and investors who fear missing out continue to buy in on any dips. We would prefer some pullback now as the 20k could act as  a psychological level. Although we’re still far from the top, we do hear clients telling us aiya, miss already! We still feel there is good opportunity in the China/ Hong Kong market and we’re just getting started only!

As usual, if you need to talk, we’re here, just a message away.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Dec 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

4th December, 2022, 3:52 PM

The Fed delivered some good news last week as it hinted that they could start slowing down rates even as early in December which saw the US markets SURGED as traders started piling in positions while shortist were forced to cover their short positions. Profit taking could be seen after that as such part of healthy movement . For the week ahead, markets will continue to look for data to support its run and with Fed’s meeting coming up the week after, market will probably remain sideways for the week.

STI

STI retraced very close to the 20ema and then saw a rebound from there. For now, the Straits Times Index is showing resistance at the 3308 area and its about the third time that it’s testing this resistance. We’re expecting to see more downside for the week as STI as it closed below the 5 and 10ema. Once again, first downside we’re looking at is around 3234 area which is the 20ema. DBS closed below its 20ema again and is sitting at the uptrend support line. If that breaks, more downside will come which will bring the index down too.

HSI

We saw the Hang Seng Index pulling back to our target of around 16741 AND China govt called for a press conference urging the elderly to go for their booster. Also, China continues to ease a little with regards to their Covid measure allowing low risk Covid patients to recover from home.

With that, as we saw the market turning up that’s when we alerted all our clients of this change in directions so that they can take the appropriate action! Now that HSI has come to our resistance, a pullback once again is healthy but this time to the 10ema first before we decide on our next move. Hong Kong/ China has been on a aggressive march up and if you’re missing out on this historical recovery then we hope we’re able to help with you it!

As usual, if you need to talk, we’re here, just a message away.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th November, 2022, 4:14 PM

It was a mixed week as Asia markets saw some pullback while US markets had some upside. The usual Jobless claim, Nonfarm payroll would be watched as the next Fed meeting in December draws near. If data starts to suggest that employment is slowing and more Americans are out of job then there could be a chance of a smaller increase in Dec. This could spark the last leg of a year end rally since the low of 3500.

STI

 

Straits Times Index 27th Nov

As expected we saw the Straits Times Index having some pullback nearing our 3220 downside target. 😊 Banks mainly led the downside as we saw some profit taking coming in after a strong run. Also, a pivot in interest rate also could start slowing the movement of bank shares as their future net interest margin would likely be slower. Looking for more downside for the week to about the 20ema and then planning what’s next. The Electronic stock on the other hand saw some life as a slow down in interest rate sparks new life into these Electronic stocks.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 27th nov 2022

The Hang Seng Index also moved as we planned, coming down to our downside target of 17320 and currently being supported by it. A break below this level could see our next target of 16741 which would be a good level to scale in. It might not be a straight down for the week as the bulls are holding the line very well for now. The China central bank cuts the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year which might see a knee jerk reaction looking for a downside overall for the week to come.

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

20th November, 2022, 4:06 PM

Week started out well but as we warned that markets are starting to be in the overbought state and so some profit taking would come in very soon. What spoilt the party was St Louis Fed’s president James Bullard coming out to say that interest hike might have to be as high as 7% which was something that market didn’t really want to hear. It saw an initial sell down but it wasn’t as bad as expected as market is starting to get used to such news. Nonetheless, some pullback is healthy as this would allow more to hope in for a further ride.

As news of more layoffs continue to hit the media, recession fears, high interest rate hikes will continue to dominate the media and probably cause more selling in the coming week. It’ll be a shorter week in the US as they are celebrate thanksgiving!

STI

STI moved up to our upside target and once again overshoot a little to about 3300. It was a red candle close, signifying some profit taking going on. As the market has moved up quite a bit, some profit taking is healthy in the overall bigger picutre. The first line of pullback is at around the 5ema at 3260. The next downside support would be 3220 area which is what we’re looking for. Going there would present some good opportunities. We can see our Straits Times Index a little target and with a shorter week in the US, we might see a bit more lackluster movement this week.

HSI

Bingo for the Hang Seng Index as it hit right where we mentioned of around 18360. We can see that the HSI has been consolidating for the last three days failing to break higher. We might see a pullback this week as the HSI closed below the 18k around number support. A pullback once again is healthy and the first level could be 17320 then 16740. This would present good opportunities to scale back into the HK market which recently have had so much positive vibe. Keeping a look out and don’t miss this opportunity!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

13th November, 2022, 3:44 PM

A fantastic week for those who are on the long side as market came back with a vengeance as thursday’s CPI data came lower than expected. This sparked a rally never seen for years and that is why TIME in the market is important! Many upside targets were hit as traders and investors all piled in the long side while shortist were forced to cover their positions. We might see some short term profit taking coming in very soon as the market has rallied quite a bit and so lets take a look at some levels that profit taking might set in.

STI

STI has exceed our upside expectation as CPI data helped lift the general mood up. It is currently at some resistance at around 3223 level but we still might see the Straits Times Index pushing up further to 3273 level. Indicators are starting to go into the overbought region but its not grossly overbought. There is a gap that will have to be eventually filled so we won’t want to go too heavy on the long side as many of our targets were met, so just enjoying the remaining ride.

HSI

Hang Seng Index is on FIRE as news of China finally easing up a little by cutting quarantine time. This is definitely a good step towards opening up and market can’t wait to rejoice. We might see further upside in the coming week as HSI had a nice closing, bouncing off the downtrend support line. Upside resistance at 17770 then 18360. Indicators pointing up and moving towards the overbought region. Enjoy this rebound until we spot some weakness.

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

6th November, 2022, 10:21 PM

The S&P500 ended positive for the month of Oct while also going through one of the most volatile month of the year. We are just less than 2 months to the end of the year and we hope that you all have been turning positive in your trading too. The recent rebound has helped quite a bit of your stock picking with some stocks rising over 15%!

The week was a busy one as we saw Fed raising hike but what’s more important was Fed’s forward statement and where they think interest rate will move up to. Also, on China front, we have seen a monster rally over the past week as rumors about opening up for China sparked a huge rebound. No smoke without fire?? But don’t be too carried away with this rally yet. HSI has hit our 16,350 target and retraced. Will share more in the later part.

Mid-term  elections is on 8 November which might cause some short term volatility. Read on as we share more on the markets.

S&P 500

S&P 500 6th Nov 2022

Mid-term elections on 8th Nov will probably set the tone for the US markets as focus shift to the mid-term for next week. Expecting volatility once again and an upside target of 3900 to be tested soon. S&P 500 closed at the 20ema and we are looking at it to close above that and re-test the resistance of 3900. Nov is also a seasonally higher month so fingers crossed, we might get another good month.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 the weaker of the US indices as it has more tech companies which is more pegged to interest rates movement. It found strength on Friday night bouncing off its 10841 support and closing around the downtrend line resistance. For this week, we’re looking for a break of that downtrend line and a test of that 20ema resistance (11203). We can see that this resistance is acting as a strong resistance so far and price seems to hover around there. Once there it is advisable to take profits and then see how the markets reacts from there. The next resistance is at the 50ema at  11531.

STI

Straits Times Index 6th Nov 2022

YES! STI moved up to our target of 3124 due to the banks and a rebound of our blue chips. Stocks like Sembcorp Industries, SIA, Wilmar all lent a hand helping our index advance. For this week, global events will probably influence our STI, mid-term election and China’s news of reopening might shape our STI. For now current resistance at 3124 area, with near term target at 3160. Banks will continue to lend support but should DBS close below the 5ema our index might start pulling back.  A pullback to 3031 is healthy.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 6th Nov 2022

Saving the best for last! HAHA! HSI saw a surge of over 9% for the week with rumors about China re-opening. Traders started to pile in and shortist furiously covering shorts as the upswing in HSI was just too fierce. As the week progressed, we saw strength in HSI and issued an alert to our clients informing them of the bullishness in the index. Our second target of 16350 was hit and just nice it started to retrace. It closed at the 20ema and we got to watch this closely. As rumors about opening up caused the hang seng index to fly, a meeting on saturday quashes market rumors with China vowing to stick with the their Covid zero policy.  This could give the index a short term blow and we might see weakness coming in once again. BUT, its not the end yet as the volume for this week was significantly higher and we would be observing very closely how the market reacts to this before determining our next move! So stay tune. Bargain hunters stay alert!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

30th October, 2022, 2:48 PM

US markets had a good showing as expected. We have been giving updates about the potential rebound for the US and it has hit our initial target of 3850 for the S&P500. Despite the weakness in tech stocks due to earnings, we still saw S&P finishing the week up by over 3% a very nice rebound.

For this week, all eyes will be on Fed’s rate hike of 0.75% which is pretty much priced in BUT what market will be looking out for would be Fed’s willingness to slow the rate hike and or start cutting it back sooner than later. As market has rebound a fair bit, any aggressive speech by the Fed might send market down once again. But a friendlier and less aggressive stand by the Fed might give market more legs to move up. The PCE data released on Friday saw inflation at a high level but at least its not increasing at a fast pace.

As usual, taking some profit ahead of such key event is prudent. One shouldn’t be betting on either direction as this is pure gamble as to what the Fed might do. We rather wait and act accordingly.

STI

Straits Times Index 30th Oct 2022

As mentioned, not shorting for the STI as its already quite depressed as we saw the Straits Times Index having some rebound. Banks were the main driver as UOB came out with better than expected results. In fact, the STI broke above the short term downtrend line signaling more upside in the coming week. Currently resisted at the 20ema, we might see the STI testing 3090 then 3124 very soon. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s meeting to also give direction.

HSI

No end in sight for selling in HK as Xi’s absolute’s power gave no confidence to the market. No relaxation on Covid zero policy gave rise to more selling. How long can China keep this up? Its hard to tell but with not much positive news flow coming out, our weightage on China has reduced and focusing more on US and Singapore. Until we see some positive news flow and an overall change in China’s stand, every bounce is a short!

US is getting exciting and you don’t want to miss out another potential rebound. So do head over to our facebook to check out our views and updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

16th October, 2022, 7:17 PM

Disappointing CPI data as inflation still remains stubbornly high. We saw a really WILD ride as Nasdaq moved over 5% in intraday movement on Thursday night. Market actually clawed back its losses on Thursday night coming back from being down 3% to ending up 2%. But on Friday US markets gave up all gains. We know it can be frustrating when markets swing to wildly so its very important to reduce your lot size and ensuring you’re discipling in cutting loss. Save your bullets to fight another day.

For this week , China’s CCP meeting will be focus. New party leaders will be chosen, growth plans laid out and China’s plan on the international stage will also be discussed. Markets might also take some cue in the party’s plan with regards to battling Covid. Many are hoping that China will ease their stand on Covid lock downs so that more economic activity can start. But at the same time, let’s not be too hopefully.

STI

Our Straits Times Index also came off as expected before some rebound after CPI data but was short lived as traders took profit on a relief rally. With Friday’s negative close, we might start off in the red for the week and probably look to fight our way through the week. We might move down to 3000 a round number support before any rebound that might come during the later part of the week.

HSI

After coming off as mentioned last week , the Hang Seng Index tried to look for a rebound but like STI, it was short lived. The 5ema acted as the resistance and HSI couldn’t stay above it. For this week, the CCP meeting will probably give us guidance to where the HSI might go to. It might consolidate around the 16k region and only if it manages to stay above the 5ema then we might see further rebound to 17500 level.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy