Peace Out, 2020!

28th December, 2020, 7:05 AM

Peace Out, 2020!

Image Source: Mothership.sg (beautiful double rainbow spotted in S’pore on Christmas day)

We’re going to keep this post short and sweet as we all know how 2020 has been for world. No words can probably describe how this year has turned out and we’re glad to have made it through.

The pandemic as opened our eyes to the things we have taken granted for, like just a simple handshake or even a meal with the family. Covid-19 has definitely changed the way we live and interact. As 2020 draws to a close, lets take some time to pause , reflect and be thankful for just making it through.

For some of us, we are able to find the silver linings and positives out of this entire experience. For some, its a year to forget. 2021 will bring new opportunities so lets look up, don’t grow weary and lose heart.

We are thankful for family and friends rallying around us this year. We are also equally thankful and grateful for all your support through the years having seen our ups and downs! We’re looking for greater communication, more value added services in order to enhance our client’s investment/trading journey for next year, so stay tune for that.

Let’s be hopeful,  continue to lookout for one another, adapt, persevere and encourage the weary. We look forward to partnering with you all in 2021.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Salesforce (CRM) – [ Broke Out , Looking To Move Higher?]

23rd December, 2020, 9:17 PM

Salesforce (CRM) – [ Broke Out , Looking To Move Higher?] Saleforces 23th Dec 2020

Chart source: Tradingview.com

Salesforce ticker symbol CRM has just broke out from its horizontal resistance of around $230. Staying above it we might see it covering the gap to $238 and might push further up to $246 in the coming week. Salesforce looks bullish to us. Volume is also increasing.

The support is around $218 and if that doesn’t hold the next level would probably be around $210.

Don’t forget the trading time for the next few days.

Singapore market will be on half trading day tomorrow (24th Dec) .
Trading hours for 24th Dec : 9am-12pm
Singapore market will be closed on 25th Dec

Hk market will also be on half trading day
HK Trading hours for 24th : 9.30am -12pm
HK market will be closed on 25th Dec

US market will also be on half trading day
US trading hours for 24th : 10.30pm-2am
Us markets will be closed on 25th Dec

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Airbnb – [ IPO Listing At $68 🤑🤑, Higher Than Expected, Our Thoughts On It ]

10th December, 2020, 12:40 PM

Airbnb – [ Listing At $68, Higher Than Expected, Our Thoughts On It]

Image Source: Airbnb.com

Airbnb will be listing tonight (10 dec 2020 )on the Nasdaq.Its IPO price came in higher than expected at $68 which they sold 50 million shares on Wednesday.. The price far exceeds the original target range of $44-50 which saw an increase to $56-60 as investors clamor for the stock in the midst of a historic boom in IPOs.

The pricing sets a valuation for Airbnb of about $47 billion based on a fully diluted share count and including proceeds of the offering, which is set to raise about $3.7 billion. Its IPO proceedings will be used to boost cash reserves and maybe even reduce its cost of debt. It’ll probably have sufficient liquidity to last for the next 3-4 years.

Airbnb no doubt took a hit and fell from a peak valuation of US$38Billion in 2019 to US18billion this year due to covid-19. Airbnb initially responded to the pandemic by cutting costs like most companies would. It cut 25% of its workforce, reduced marketing expenses, cut 2020 bonuses, and reduced executive salaries for six months. By around may, it reported that customers started to slowly return for local getaways and for working remotely.

In total, Airbnb brought in $2.5 billion in revenue in the first nine months of the year, down from $3.7 billion a year earlier. Its net loss more than doubled during that period to $697 million.Airbnb’s revenue bounced back in its most recent quarter, giving it a profit. So, will Airbnb survive this pandemic?

Lets explore Airbnb a little more and see what it does.

What Does Airbnb Do? 

image source :https://www.dreamystays.com/airbnb-lauterbrunnen/

Airbnb is a vacation rental online marketplace. It is often touted as the Amazon of travel and a disruptor in the tourism space. Through its website, users can arrange for unique lodging, short term homestay or even list to rent out their property for others to stay. Airbnb has a global presence in 100,000 cities across more than 220 countries and regions. As of 30 September 2020, 75.7% of its homes and experience listings were active i.e. 5.6mn active listings out of 7.4mn available. So there is a strong barrier to compete with them as any competitor looking to enter have to compete globally which is a hard thing to do.

It’s source of revenue  primary source of Airbnb’s revenue is service fees from bookings.

What’s unique about airbnb is that it actually doesn’t own any of the rental properties on its portal. This means its asset-light and does have the flexibility in managing its cost. Airbnb itself has also extended its brand to experiences allowing guests to find things like cooking classes, photography, or a local bike tour on their trips.

Experiences by airbnb.com

These days, travelers are also looking for a unique experience to complement their travel lifestyle, a more holistic approach to traveling. With Airbnb expanding their offerings, being sensitive to the latest travel trend, it is in a good position to capture the growing travel market.

So Let’s look at some risk it might face.

Risk

  1. Of course covid-19 is one of the biggest risk. Infections are still spiking and countries are still imposing lockdowns particularly in Europe which accounts for 40% of its revenue, a decrease in bookings is expected this current quarter.
  2. Tougher regulation, just like in Singapore where short term rentals of less than three months are illegal if countries start imposing such rules, it would affect Airbnb profitability and competitiveness . Already in HK and EU where govt are already trying to curb big tech company’s power and monopoly, if this flow to the urban rental market then it would pose a headwind for Airbnb
  3. Competition from other platforms like expedia, tripping.com, booking.com. There are competitors to Airbnb and in order to remain relevant and ahead of them, huge expenses will have to be spent in order to defend and increase market share.

Our Concluding Thought

With the recent vaccine news, this might boost sentiments on travel stocks. With such stock, we often would take a longer term view and not trade the spikes in volatility. Airbnb might be more of a recovery play.

In terms of an economic moat, it doesn’t have a really wide one as there are competitors around with such listings although its listing of 7 million rentals is already more than Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide, InterContinental Hotels Group, Wyndham Hotel Group, and Hyatt Hotels combined.

The company is also constantly improving itself by creating a host advisory board, it also rolled out insurance policies at no additional cost when hosts were terrified that their apartments got damaged by partygoers. When COVID-19 continued to rage, it pulled the plug on parties altogether. Such companies put itself in a good position going forward.

The company co-founders Chesky, Nate Blecharczyk and Joe Gebbia – are nice, low-key, friendly people a little different from elon musk. Something positive in a way.

In light of the recent IPOs that were listed like snowflake, palantir  and doordash last night, we have seen these ipo performing very well so don’t be too surprised if you see Airbnb rocketing tonight.

To always chase the price is a tough one, even buying a great business but at a lousy price still makes your investment lousy. We would want to see the opening price but would not scale in completely for our investment but maybe nibble a little a bit.

All these talk of travel makes me a little itchy for a staycation now. HAHA

If you have any thoughts on Airbnb feel free to drop us a message.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

Xpeng – [ Watching For The Break ]

8th December, 2020, 10:24 PM

Xpeng – [ Watching For The Break ]

Chart Source:Tradingview.com

Xpeng or Xiaopeng motors is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. It peers like Nio, Li Auto are also listed in the US.

We shall take a look at Xpeng for tonight. From the chart, it is currently being resisted by the downtrend line and we’re watching for this break and for it to stay above it. A good break above $51.36 might see it move to $57 and maybe even to $64. Xpeng has corrected about 30% since the high which is a good and healthy correction. Scaling in in batches might be something we would consider doing. The support is at around $50 then $46.

Watch For The Break!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Tesla – [ 🚀🚀 Shot Over $600 In Just Over A Week, More Upside? ]

8th December, 2020, 5:08 PM

Tesla – [ 🚀🚀 Shot Over $600 In Just Over A Week, More Upside? ]Tesla 8th Dec 2020

Chart source: Tradingview.com

A quote from Goldman Sachs “ GS upgrade Tesla, says the stock has massive upside of over 30% ” This was reported last wednesday when it was trading around $560 and just last night Tesla came close to $650! 😀

We have seen close to a 40% rise in price since we posted but is this it for Tesla?? We think not yet. The upside for Tesla is still possible.

  1. Funds still have to buy in before Tesla is added to the S&P500 before or on 21st Dec. See our previous post for more details.
  2. Shortist will be pressured to cover if price continues to move up which will give the upwards move a push up.

Tesla has surpass our $600 target which is not surprising given how bullish the momentum is. From the charts, $650 seems like a resistance but if the bulls continue to charge on, we might see a push even to $700. Remember, we mentioned in our post that  tesla is a tough stock to trade and we prefer to be invested in it rather than taking the spikes in volatility.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

IFast – [ Brutal 35% Sell Down, It Is Over Done?? ]

8th December, 2020, 2:49 PM

IFast – [ Brutal 35% Sell Down, It Is Over Done?? ]Ifast 8th Dec 2020

Chart Source : Poemsview 8th Dec 2020

Ifast didn’t manage to win the digital wholesale banking license announced last friday(4th Dec) evening and saw its stock HAMMERED down over 35% yesterday. What was interesting was that on Friday, Ifast saw a move up in price probably anticipating some sort of announcement and maybe even hopes of winning it. But who knows……It failed to win and eventually saw a MASSIVE GAP DOWN and would probably have trapped many retailers who chased on Friday.

So what’s our game plan now? Should we panic and sell out? These are some of our thoughts.

  1. Ifast said in their announcement that MAS is still reviewing whether to grant more of the DWB licences in the future and IFast is still committed in its pursuit of a digital banking licence. ” The Group will continue to work on improving its range of solutions and services to further add value to global investors, wealth advisers
    and corporates using its Business-to-Consumer (“B2C”), Business-to-Business and Fintech Solutions. ” This sounds positive to us and if MAS were to issue out new licences, Ifast could be a good potential winner next round.
  2. IFast together with PCCW is also a candidate to digitize the HK pension system. A win for this could boost Ifast bottom line. Of course if they fail to win this, it’ll be another set back. Dates for the results for this is still unknown. We’re neutral on this.
  3. A 35% sell down might not really be justifiable. A massive sell down of 35% might be overreacting to not winning the licence.
  4. Approval for securities dealing in Malaysia could boost its revenue growth. It is also continuing to grow its AUA from its hard work from the past few years. Positive for us

Lets take a look at the chart. We can see that there is a support at around $2.67 follow by $2.48. The resistance is around $2.95 then the 5ema of around $3.24. If you’re looking at a longer time frame, a scale in at various levels of around the range of $2.70- 2.90 might be a good opportunity. Our target in the longer run is for the price to cover the gap with $3.35 , 3.63 then $3.9 as our upside target. Don’t go all in at once but scale in your investment in 3-4 batches.

We’re hopefully of IFast longer term  price and this might be a good opportunity to take advantage of the drop in price.

Share with us your views too! Just contact us here!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Frencken – [ Move Up Came As Mentioned Last Week, Next Target?]

2nd December, 2020, 7:02 AM

Frencken – [ Move Up Came As Mentioned Last Week, Next Target?]Frencken 2nd Dec 2020

Chart source: Poemsview 2nd Dec 2020

Frencken has been moving up steadily and being supported by the 5ema whenever it pulls back. We mentioned last week that volume started coming in and we might see Frencken move higher, true enough this came true. It has climbed up to our $1.18 target up over 12% in just over 2 weeks and taking some profits is always good.

So where are we targeting next? With some volume coming in today we might see it move higher to challenge the $1.24 close and then the previous high at $1.26. Our first support would be the 5ema then the uptrend line.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Apple (AAPL) – [ Looking For A Break Out?]

1st December, 2020, 5:19 PM

Apple (AAPL) – [ Looking For A Break Out?]Apple 1st Dec 2020

ChatSource: Tradingview.com

Apple(AAPL) was trying to break out from the triangle last night with some volume. It does look like it has some potential in an up move in the coming days as there was volume supporting the break. Apple has to stay above that downtrend line of around $120 and if it manages we might see $125 then $129.

The support would be the uptrend line at around $119 and if it breaks that then we might see $109. We’re leaning towards the bullish side for apple. Lets watch.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy