Straits Times Index

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market, Straits times index , , , ,
20th November, 2022, 4:06 PM

Week started out well but as we warned that markets are starting to be in the overbought state and so some profit taking would come in very soon. What spoilt the party was St Louis Fed’s president James Bullard coming out to say that interest hike might have to be as high as 7% which was something that market didn’t really want to hear. It saw an initial sell down but it wasn’t as bad as expected as market is starting to get used to such news. Nonetheless, some pullback is healthy as this would allow more to hope in for a further ride.

As news of more layoffs continue to hit the media, recession fears, high interest rate hikes will continue to dominate the media and probably cause more selling in the coming week. It’ll be a shorter week in the US as they are celebrate thanksgiving!

STI

STI moved up to our upside target and once again overshoot a little to about 3300. It was a red candle close, signifying some profit taking going on. As the market has moved up quite a bit, some profit taking is healthy in the overall bigger picutre. The first line of pullback is at around the 5ema at 3260. The next downside support would be 3220 area which is what we’re looking for. Going there would present some good opportunities. We can see our Straits Times Index a little target and with a shorter week in the US, we might see a bit more lackluster movement this week.

HSI

Bingo for the Hang Seng Index as it hit right where we mentioned of around 18360. We can see that the HSI has been consolidating for the last three days failing to break higher. We might see a pullback this week as the HSI closed below the 18k around number support. A pullback once again is healthy and the first level could be 17320 then 16740. This would present good opportunities to scale back into the HK market which recently have had so much positive vibe. Keeping a look out and don’t miss this opportunity!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
13th November, 2022, 3:44 PM

A fantastic week for those who are on the long side as market came back with a vengeance as thursday’s CPI data came lower than expected. This sparked a rally never seen for years and that is why TIME in the market is important! Many upside targets were hit as traders and investors all piled in the long side while shortist were forced to cover their positions. We might see some short term profit taking coming in very soon as the market has rallied quite a bit and so lets take a look at some levels that profit taking might set in.

STI

STI has exceed our upside expectation as CPI data helped lift the general mood up. It is currently at some resistance at around 3223 level but we still might see the Straits Times Index pushing up further to 3273 level. Indicators are starting to go into the overbought region but its not grossly overbought. There is a gap that will have to be eventually filled so we won’t want to go too heavy on the long side as many of our targets were met, so just enjoying the remaining ride.

HSI

Hang Seng Index is on FIRE as news of China finally easing up a little by cutting quarantine time. This is definitely a good step towards opening up and market can’t wait to rejoice. We might see further upside in the coming week as HSI had a nice closing, bouncing off the downtrend support line. Upside resistance at 17770 then 18360. Indicators pointing up and moving towards the overbought region. Enjoy this rebound until we spot some weakness.

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , ,
6th November, 2022, 10:21 PM

The S&P500 ended positive for the month of Oct while also going through one of the most volatile month of the year. We are just less than 2 months to the end of the year and we hope that you all have been turning positive in your trading too. The recent rebound has helped quite a bit of your stock picking with some stocks rising over 15%!

The week was a busy one as we saw Fed raising hike but what’s more important was Fed’s forward statement and where they think interest rate will move up to. Also, on China front, we have seen a monster rally over the past week as rumors about opening up for China sparked a huge rebound. No smoke without fire?? But don’t be too carried away with this rally yet. HSI has hit our 16,350 target and retraced. Will share more in the later part.

Mid-term  elections is on 8 November which might cause some short term volatility. Read on as we share more on the markets.

S&P 500

S&P 500 6th Nov 2022

Mid-term elections on 8th Nov will probably set the tone for the US markets as focus shift to the mid-term for next week. Expecting volatility once again and an upside target of 3900 to be tested soon. S&P 500 closed at the 20ema and we are looking at it to close above that and re-test the resistance of 3900. Nov is also a seasonally higher month so fingers crossed, we might get another good month.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 the weaker of the US indices as it has more tech companies which is more pegged to interest rates movement. It found strength on Friday night bouncing off its 10841 support and closing around the downtrend line resistance. For this week, we’re looking for a break of that downtrend line and a test of that 20ema resistance (11203). We can see that this resistance is acting as a strong resistance so far and price seems to hover around there. Once there it is advisable to take profits and then see how the markets reacts from there. The next resistance is at the 50ema at  11531.

STI

Straits Times Index 6th Nov 2022

YES! STI moved up to our target of 3124 due to the banks and a rebound of our blue chips. Stocks like Sembcorp Industries, SIA, Wilmar all lent a hand helping our index advance. For this week, global events will probably influence our STI, mid-term election and China’s news of reopening might shape our STI. For now current resistance at 3124 area, with near term target at 3160. Banks will continue to lend support but should DBS close below the 5ema our index might start pulling back.  A pullback to 3031 is healthy.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 6th Nov 2022

Saving the best for last! HAHA! HSI saw a surge of over 9% for the week with rumors about China re-opening. Traders started to pile in and shortist furiously covering shorts as the upswing in HSI was just too fierce. As the week progressed, we saw strength in HSI and issued an alert to our clients informing them of the bullishness in the index. Our second target of 16350 was hit and just nice it started to retrace. It closed at the 20ema and we got to watch this closely. As rumors about opening up caused the hang seng index to fly, a meeting on saturday quashes market rumors with China vowing to stick with the their Covid zero policy.  This could give the index a short term blow and we might see weakness coming in once again. BUT, its not the end yet as the volume for this week was significantly higher and we would be observing very closely how the market reacts to this before determining our next move! So stay tune. Bargain hunters stay alert!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
30th October, 2022, 2:48 PM

US markets had a good showing as expected. We have been giving updates about the potential rebound for the US and it has hit our initial target of 3850 for the S&P500. Despite the weakness in tech stocks due to earnings, we still saw S&P finishing the week up by over 3% a very nice rebound.

For this week, all eyes will be on Fed’s rate hike of 0.75% which is pretty much priced in BUT what market will be looking out for would be Fed’s willingness to slow the rate hike and or start cutting it back sooner than later. As market has rebound a fair bit, any aggressive speech by the Fed might send market down once again. But a friendlier and less aggressive stand by the Fed might give market more legs to move up. The PCE data released on Friday saw inflation at a high level but at least its not increasing at a fast pace.

As usual, taking some profit ahead of such key event is prudent. One shouldn’t be betting on either direction as this is pure gamble as to what the Fed might do. We rather wait and act accordingly.

STI

Straits Times Index 30th Oct 2022

As mentioned, not shorting for the STI as its already quite depressed as we saw the Straits Times Index having some rebound. Banks were the main driver as UOB came out with better than expected results. In fact, the STI broke above the short term downtrend line signaling more upside in the coming week. Currently resisted at the 20ema, we might see the STI testing 3090 then 3124 very soon. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s meeting to also give direction.

HSI

No end in sight for selling in HK as Xi’s absolute’s power gave no confidence to the market. No relaxation on Covid zero policy gave rise to more selling. How long can China keep this up? Its hard to tell but with not much positive news flow coming out, our weightage on China has reduced and focusing more on US and Singapore. Until we see some positive news flow and an overall change in China’s stand, every bounce is a short!

US is getting exciting and you don’t want to miss out another potential rebound. So do head over to our facebook to check out our views and updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
16th October, 2022, 7:17 PM

Disappointing CPI data as inflation still remains stubbornly high. We saw a really WILD ride as Nasdaq moved over 5% in intraday movement on Thursday night. Market actually clawed back its losses on Thursday night coming back from being down 3% to ending up 2%. But on Friday US markets gave up all gains. We know it can be frustrating when markets swing to wildly so its very important to reduce your lot size and ensuring you’re discipling in cutting loss. Save your bullets to fight another day.

For this week , China’s CCP meeting will be focus. New party leaders will be chosen, growth plans laid out and China’s plan on the international stage will also be discussed. Markets might also take some cue in the party’s plan with regards to battling Covid. Many are hoping that China will ease their stand on Covid lock downs so that more economic activity can start. But at the same time, let’s not be too hopefully.

STI

Our Straits Times Index also came off as expected before some rebound after CPI data but was short lived as traders took profit on a relief rally. With Friday’s negative close, we might start off in the red for the week and probably look to fight our way through the week. We might move down to 3000 a round number support before any rebound that might come during the later part of the week.

HSI

After coming off as mentioned last week , the Hang Seng Index tried to look for a rebound but like STI, it was short lived. The 5ema acted as the resistance and HSI couldn’t stay above it. For this week, the CCP meeting will probably give us guidance to where the HSI might go to. It might consolidate around the 16k region and only if it manages to stay above the 5ema then we might see further rebound to 17500 level.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
9th October, 2022, 4:21 PM

Good news is bad news for markets now and till market is about to normalize good news and bad news, we’ll continue to see violent moves up and down. Unemployment rate came in lower at 3.5% while payroll rises by 263k all better than expected and instead of cheering on the data, markets sold off. As unemployment comes down, this would translate into spending which means inflation might still be stubbornly high. For this week, all eyes will be on CPI data coming out on 13 oct. If CPI data comes in above expectation then expect more SELLING!!

HSI

HSI bounced off our support of around 16880 but the bounce was quickly met with resistance which is the downtrend line and the 20ema. For this week , we’re expecting weakness in HSI once again as global sentiments continue to be weak. Immediate support is at 17732 and downside target is around 17000. Once again, awaiting to see what happens at the CCP 20th Congress Meeting to get a clue what policies might be introduced.

STI 

STI also saw some rebound after some consolidation and currently at the 5ema support. But with Friday’s sell down, we might see more downside for the STI to around the 3090 level. All eyes on CPI data before any moves and as usual we always caution before going into any big data as any disappointment would see markets selling off and you don’t want to be caught in that.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , ,
2nd October, 2022, 10:42 PM

Dow closes worst September in 20 years and stocks plunge as bear market intensifies. For those in the bear camp, you’ll probably be rejoicing as markets breaks June low with not much recovery in sight. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation the PCE  is the broadest indicator of where prices are heading as it adjusts for consumer behavior. It showed signs of acceleration last week which caused more sell down. The S&P 500 tried its best to hold the 3600 support but gave way at the later part of the trading day. We might see more downside for the coming week as trader would pile on their shorts when the key support is broken. It’s about 2 more weeks before the CPI data for Sept is released and once again markets will look to this data for clue of inflation numbers. Overall, we’re waiting for a rebound rather than shorting now.
STI

Pullback was very much expected as Reits and banks were sold down during the week due to raising interest rates. The Straits Times Index came off after it broke down from out downtrend line we drew and more than expected as stocks took a hit with renewed fear of raising inflation. For this week, STI might try to consolidate around the 3100 area before any moves. A week’s consolidation is healthy for us.

HSI

HSI still continuing its march down as market looks ahead to the CCP meeting coming this month. All eyes on that and Xi’s future plan for China with regards to Covid.  On October 1, China celebrates its 73rd National Day, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China. National Day also marks the beginning of the week-long holiday known as Golden Week. Due to Covid19 restriction, this has caused quite a bit of chaos as travelers try to make their way home. For this week, HK side might be slightly muted as China is closed for the week and HK will have a public holiday on 4th Oct. A zoom out for HSI to Oct 2021 might give some support for the HSI around 16800 level. We could see HSI slowly drift down to this level before CCP meeting.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , , ,
18th September, 2022, 4:30 PM

Another big week ahead as the Fed meets to decide on the interest rate. Fed will be meeting 20-21st Sept (Wed) and their announcement will be made 2am Thursday local time. Market is pricing in 0.75% hike anything more could results in another sell off. 1% might be possible after last week’s CPI data so don’t be surprise. What’s important is also their outlook, as market is also pricing in another 0.5% hike each for next two upcoming meeting in Nov and Dec. A more aggressive stand will also meet with more selling. As mentioned last week, whenever there is big data we would want to be more cautious as we don’t want to anticipate or take a HERO or ZERO approach to the markets.

STI

STI did see a rebound last week to our target of 3297 but as CPI data came out higher than expected, we saw markets sell off and that negative sentiment did affect our local markets too. A further pullback might be expected as market gets ready for the upcoming Fed meeting. Immediate support at the 20ema or 3249. Further downside might be to 3200. Remaining light before Fed’s decision as once again opportunity can be found after Fed’s meeting.

HSI

Unable to sustain its break above the downtrend resistance line, we see that HSI continues to slide and the next support level is at 18414. A slew of good news with tencent and netease gaining approval for their games couldn’t bring them up but saw more downside instead, Markets could still drift lower to our support before any temporary rebound. Looking forward to the upcoming meeting in Oct for further catalyst.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Aug 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI, Stock Market , , , ,
21st August, 2022, 2:56 PM

After a month’s long rally, its about time for US markets to pullback. S&P500 indicators are currently in an overbought state and some pullback in the markets is expected and normal. GDP data for the US will be out this thursday  indicating if the economy is diving further into recession and could add further tension to the markets.

STI

STI saw a pullback as mentioned but has not gone down to our target yet so there might be more downside for the STI in the coming week. Banks are pulling back which will cause the index to pullback too. But despite some weakness, we saw tourism related stocks doing well for the last week before a pullback came. Looking for some short opportunity next week.

HSI

HSI hasn’t rebound last week as we expected but the rebound might be closing in as HSI looks to stabilize itself and build a base. The support of around 20k is holding and most tech companies have reported their results. Tencent despite missing estimates and its first time for revenue declining managed to still see its stock price move up. Alibaba is also holding up well and we might see some rebound coming soon too. Our upside rebound target for HSI is at 21262.

Head over to our Facebook for more updates on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead June 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
5th June, 2022, 4:29 PM

The Week Ahead June 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Market around the world didn’t end Friday on a high note as traders looked to book profits. Oil broke out during the week as market tried to find footing despite Euro’s inflation numbers coming out hotter than expected. Inflation number is still what market is looking out for as a higher inflation might force the hands of fed to increase interest at a much higher than anticipated pace.

This coming Friday would see the Core CPI numbers which measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy  a sense of where inflation is.

STI

STI tried to break above our resistance but didn’t manage to have a clean and successful break. We added in an extra short  term uptrend line which might act as a support. STI is still trying to gain some form of momentum but if the upside can’t hold then we need to be cautious.  For the moment, we still see opportunity on the long side as we from our previous post on the Electronic sector with AEM taking the lead and UMS having a breakout on Friday. OLAM in particular is also doing well. So there are pocket of opportunities!

HSI 

HSI has reached our upside target and beyond before a pull back. The rebound has came in as previously mentioned very good given current market conditions. We have drawn a short term uptrend line which will act as the support for any downside for now. For this week, we’re expecting some consolidation for HSI and unless we see the 5ema being broken above then we’ll look for a long opportunity. The good thing about HSI is that its making a higher low and it shouldn’t pullback beyond 20k if not our uptrend is invalid.

Head over to our facebook for more updates on S&P500 and Nasdaq for the potential levels we are looking at.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy