STI

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
30th October, 2022, 2:48 PM

US markets had a good showing as expected. We have been giving updates about the potential rebound for the US and it has hit our initial target of 3850 for the S&P500. Despite the weakness in tech stocks due to earnings, we still saw S&P finishing the week up by over 3% a very nice rebound.

For this week, all eyes will be on Fed’s rate hike of 0.75% which is pretty much priced in BUT what market will be looking out for would be Fed’s willingness to slow the rate hike and or start cutting it back sooner than later. As market has rebound a fair bit, any aggressive speech by the Fed might send market down once again. But a friendlier and less aggressive stand by the Fed might give market more legs to move up. The PCE data released on Friday saw inflation at a high level but at least its not increasing at a fast pace.

As usual, taking some profit ahead of such key event is prudent. One shouldn’t be betting on either direction as this is pure gamble as to what the Fed might do. We rather wait and act accordingly.

STI

Straits Times Index 30th Oct 2022

As mentioned, not shorting for the STI as its already quite depressed as we saw the Straits Times Index having some rebound. Banks were the main driver as UOB came out with better than expected results. In fact, the STI broke above the short term downtrend line signaling more upside in the coming week. Currently resisted at the 20ema, we might see the STI testing 3090 then 3124 very soon. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s meeting to also give direction.

HSI

No end in sight for selling in HK as Xi’s absolute’s power gave no confidence to the market. No relaxation on Covid zero policy gave rise to more selling. How long can China keep this up? Its hard to tell but with not much positive news flow coming out, our weightage on China has reduced and focusing more on US and Singapore. Until we see some positive news flow and an overall change in China’s stand, every bounce is a short!

US is getting exciting and you don’t want to miss out another potential rebound. So do head over to our facebook to check out our views and updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , ,
23rd October, 2022, 4:22 PM

Do note that Singapore market will be closed on Monday (24th Oct) for Deepavali holiday. It will resume trading on 25th Oct Tuesday.

Meanwhile, US market finally had a good close on Friday after a volatile week. S&P500 managed to break and stay above the 3700 level which we might see more upside in the coming week. Big Tech companies are also reporting this week with Alphabet kicking it off on Tuesday, Microsoft, Meta on Wednesday and Apple , Amazon on Thursday which could help boost the Nasdaq.

Its about a week more before Fed meet to increase rate, so we’re taking this week to play a rebound before going light once again. The 10 year yield also saw some retracement but still above 4%

As for China, nothing very exciting came out from China after a week long of meeting only that the former President Hu Jintao was unceremoniously removed from the closing speech. Market was disappointed as we saw some sell down in the HSI and China A50. As expectations are all priced in, we might now see some rebound in the coming week.

STI

STI went below our downside target of 3000 and its a bit too late to short now before any meaningful rebound. We saw some palm oil stocks having a good rebound especially First Resources. A good 10% upside for this rebound gave a good boost to the morale. For the STI, the downside could be till around 2900 after which we might be rebound. As mentioned, a bit too late for shorts. Looking for rebound instead before shorting.

HSI

Same thing, the hang seng index also saw some downside to 16200 level, in line with our downside target, we are looking at the 16k level to hold before deciding on any long position. CCP meeting has ended and President Xi has sealed his power for another term and with no end in Covid lockdown any bounce from the China market would be met with selling. For now, more short term trading while waiting for bigger news to flow out of China. Focusing more on US for now.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
16th October, 2022, 7:17 PM

Disappointing CPI data as inflation still remains stubbornly high. We saw a really WILD ride as Nasdaq moved over 5% in intraday movement on Thursday night. Market actually clawed back its losses on Thursday night coming back from being down 3% to ending up 2%. But on Friday US markets gave up all gains. We know it can be frustrating when markets swing to wildly so its very important to reduce your lot size and ensuring you’re discipling in cutting loss. Save your bullets to fight another day.

For this week , China’s CCP meeting will be focus. New party leaders will be chosen, growth plans laid out and China’s plan on the international stage will also be discussed. Markets might also take some cue in the party’s plan with regards to battling Covid. Many are hoping that China will ease their stand on Covid lock downs so that more economic activity can start. But at the same time, let’s not be too hopefully.

STI

Our Straits Times Index also came off as expected before some rebound after CPI data but was short lived as traders took profit on a relief rally. With Friday’s negative close, we might start off in the red for the week and probably look to fight our way through the week. We might move down to 3000 a round number support before any rebound that might come during the later part of the week.

HSI

After coming off as mentioned last week , the Hang Seng Index tried to look for a rebound but like STI, it was short lived. The 5ema acted as the resistance and HSI couldn’t stay above it. For this week, the CCP meeting will probably give us guidance to where the HSI might go to. It might consolidate around the 16k region and only if it manages to stay above the 5ema then we might see further rebound to 17500 level.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
9th October, 2022, 4:21 PM

Good news is bad news for markets now and till market is about to normalize good news and bad news, we’ll continue to see violent moves up and down. Unemployment rate came in lower at 3.5% while payroll rises by 263k all better than expected and instead of cheering on the data, markets sold off. As unemployment comes down, this would translate into spending which means inflation might still be stubbornly high. For this week, all eyes will be on CPI data coming out on 13 oct. If CPI data comes in above expectation then expect more SELLING!!

HSI

HSI bounced off our support of around 16880 but the bounce was quickly met with resistance which is the downtrend line and the 20ema. For this week , we’re expecting weakness in HSI once again as global sentiments continue to be weak. Immediate support is at 17732 and downside target is around 17000. Once again, awaiting to see what happens at the CCP 20th Congress Meeting to get a clue what policies might be introduced.

STI 

STI also saw some rebound after some consolidation and currently at the 5ema support. But with Friday’s sell down, we might see more downside for the STI to around the 3090 level. All eyes on CPI data before any moves and as usual we always caution before going into any big data as any disappointment would see markets selling off and you don’t want to be caught in that.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI, Stock Market , , ,
25th September, 2022, 5:08 PM

0.75% rate hike and probably more pain ahead, as Fed remains its hawkish view which didn’t sit that well with the markets and we saw selling coming in throughout the week. As always we warned about going in before any big event and always waiting the day after before making an moves. Hopefully this saved those who were considering going LONG before a bloodbath happen.

As S&P500 comes very close to June low, this could give rise to an opportunity to add into our long term portfolio as this support becomes a significant point for the market to test. If this support holds, we might even see a rebound in the coming week. Head over to our Facebook page to read up more.

STI

STI also caved in on Friday as Singapore’s core inflation rises to 5.1% in August, inching towards 14-year high. Inflation is hitting countries hard and Singapore is not spared. We can see that STI broke the uptrend line on friday and a pullback to our second downside support of around 3190 might be seen in the coming weeks. Waiting for more pullback first.

HSI

HSI come down as expected and even broke the March low! Once again, looking ahead for Oct meeting before adding any position as market might drift a little lower and there is no real hurry to move in yet. We’re bullish on China/HK but looking for a better entry.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Sept 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , , ,
18th September, 2022, 4:30 PM

Another big week ahead as the Fed meets to decide on the interest rate. Fed will be meeting 20-21st Sept (Wed) and their announcement will be made 2am Thursday local time. Market is pricing in 0.75% hike anything more could results in another sell off. 1% might be possible after last week’s CPI data so don’t be surprise. What’s important is also their outlook, as market is also pricing in another 0.5% hike each for next two upcoming meeting in Nov and Dec. A more aggressive stand will also meet with more selling. As mentioned last week, whenever there is big data we would want to be more cautious as we don’t want to anticipate or take a HERO or ZERO approach to the markets.

STI

STI did see a rebound last week to our target of 3297 but as CPI data came out higher than expected, we saw markets sell off and that negative sentiment did affect our local markets too. A further pullback might be expected as market gets ready for the upcoming Fed meeting. Immediate support at the 20ema or 3249. Further downside might be to 3200. Remaining light before Fed’s decision as once again opportunity can be found after Fed’s meeting.

HSI

Unable to sustain its break above the downtrend resistance line, we see that HSI continues to slide and the next support level is at 18414. A slew of good news with tencent and netease gaining approval for their games couldn’t bring them up but saw more downside instead, Markets could still drift lower to our support before any temporary rebound. Looking forward to the upcoming meeting in Oct for further catalyst.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , ,
11th September, 2022, 3:44 PM

Markets started off weak but regained some grounds towards the end of the week as bargain hunting started to come in. The KEY DATA to look out for this week would be inflation data! CPI data for Aug coming out this Tuesday night. If inflation remains high and over what market is expecting of 8.1% then we’ll probably meet with selling once again. As markets saw a rebound, disappointing data would result in another round of selling.

STI

STI 11th Sept 2022

A rebound came in slightly faster than expected as STI was pulling back very close to our 1st target. It broke the immediate downtrend line and rebound. First rebound target is 3297. Banks are leading the rebound with DBS being the leader this round. SIA is also looking good for a rebound.

HSI

HSI 11th Sept 2022

HSI reached our downside target of 18800 and started to show some strength rebounding off the support. It is currently resisted at the downtrend line and breaking above that then we might see more rebound to 20k. The biggest overhanging resistance would be China’s zero covid policy causing lockdowns and economic disruptions. The CCP is meeting in Oct which hopefully might shed some light on its covid’s policy if not market will be hard to move. Also, CPI coming out this week could put a brakes to the rebound so we got to watch that closely.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Sept 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , ,
4th September, 2022, 2:19 PM

Its been another brutal week for US with no end in selling. Ever since our post last week market still can’t find any strength and with ever rally it comes with fierce selling and with quantitative tightening doubling at the start of Sept. Markets will continue to look at inflation data and if there’s any surprises. Market will most likely sell off again.

STI

STI

STI also slowly drifting down to our target, it has been trying to resist the selling and putting up a strong fight despite all the negative sentiments surrounding it. More downside would be better to clear out weaker hands so that a rebound can come in.  3180 level would be the first level we’re watching for. Also, despite that we seen stocks like raffles medical, ifast all moving up. So there are still gems to look out for during this period.

HSI

HSI

HSI has pulled back to our support level of 19500 but it looks like more downside is ahead was BEARSIH action for Wednesday candle was spotted.  Warren Buffet’s sale of BYD also caused some rattle in the markets as investors dialed back on buying. We are likely to see HSI to 18800 level as market can’t rally despite some good news for the China market. Looking for more pullback before deciding on the next move.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Aug 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , ,
28th August, 2022, 4:35 PM

It was a brutal end to the week as markets tanked after Powell’s speech after he reiterate that more pain is ahead as Fed continues to look to increase interest rates. Its not something unexpected but markets didn’t like the tone and the massive sell down came. S&P500 gave up all its gain and broke its support which indicates more downside.

STI

STI fell at the start of the week but regained some grounds towards the end. Overall market still remains sideways to weak but with Friday’s sell down, some negative sentiment might spread over to Asia. So downside movement is expected for the week. But despite all these we managed to squeeze in some winning trades like Golden Energy. Waiting for more pullback in the market.

HSI 

HSI came roaring back after China stimulus and more hope of the end of Covid zero policies. It broke the downtrend line BUT with the selldown on Friday some negative sentiment might flow over to HK so some pullback should be expected. We might see a pullback to 19500 and if that holds we could see a real bounce.

Do head over to our Facebook page for more updates on S&P500 and where it might head after the massive sell down. Updates for Nasdaq is also over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Aug 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI, Stock Market , , , ,
21st August, 2022, 2:56 PM

After a month’s long rally, its about time for US markets to pullback. S&P500 indicators are currently in an overbought state and some pullback in the markets is expected and normal. GDP data for the US will be out this thursday  indicating if the economy is diving further into recession and could add further tension to the markets.

STI

STI saw a pullback as mentioned but has not gone down to our target yet so there might be more downside for the STI in the coming week. Banks are pulling back which will cause the index to pullback too. But despite some weakness, we saw tourism related stocks doing well for the last week before a pullback came. Looking for some short opportunity next week.

HSI

HSI hasn’t rebound last week as we expected but the rebound might be closing in as HSI looks to stabilize itself and build a base. The support of around 20k is holding and most tech companies have reported their results. Tencent despite missing estimates and its first time for revenue declining managed to still see its stock price move up. Alibaba is also holding up well and we might see some rebound coming soon too. Our upside rebound target for HSI is at 21262.

Head over to our Facebook for more updates on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy