The Week Ahead (3) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th October, 2021, 10:20 PM

Image source: goodmorningfun.com

The week is starting soon and we hope you’re not feeling the blues as market is starting to come back to live and things are starting to heat up!

Recap for STI & HSI 

For our local market, as mentioned in our previous post, banks earnings over in the US gave a push to our local banks, especially for OCBC and UOB.

Electronic stocks also saw some rebound as the 10 year yield curve started to ease up. Nasdaq also had a rebound bringing further positivity to the markets. Energy stocks saw some pullback which is healthy while oil stocks pushed further up.

As for the Hong Kong market, it only traded for three days as it was closed for a day due to typhoon warning and one day due to Chung Yeung Festival. Overall, EVs , tech stock saw a rebound in the HK market while HSI moved up to our initial target.

Key Events to Watch For 

1.Earnings! Earnings have kicked off in the US and dozens of companies will be reporting in the coming week, including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), as the first major wave of third quarter earnings results gets underway.

On Thursday Netflix will kicks off third quarter reporting for the ‘FAANG’ group of U.S. tech giants Facebook , Apple  Amazon.

Take note of earnings in Singapore too.!

2 Chinese GDP! On Monday, the third quarter gross domestic product for China will be released alongside with the factory production and retail sales. These are data to see the health of the economy and economist are expecting growth of around 5.2%. If it comes below then market might have some reaction to it depending on how bad the numbers are, but if it jumps on the upside it could spark more upside as this might signal recovery for the world’s second largest market.

3. U.S data he U.S. is to release data on industrial production on Monday followed by reports on buiding permits and housing starts on Tuesday.

4. Bitcon futures ETF! For those interested to get your hands on bitcoin this ETF might provide an avenue for it. The first U.S listed futures ETF are set to launch in the coming week barring any last minute objection from the SEC.

The ProShares Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund is scheduled to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. A day later, the Invesco Bitcoin Strategy ETF, would also be allowed to launch unless the SEC blocks it.The ETFs will be based on bitcoin futures that already trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rather than the cryptocurrency itself amid regulatory concerns over a potential lack of liquidity and the risk of price manipulation on spot exchanges.

5. Take note of the 10 year yield too. It did move up on Friday. Don’t overlook this point.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

Straits Times Index 17th Oct 2021

Image source: AdvisorXs 17th Oct 2021

STI saw a nice rebound of about 60 points when it broke our resistance line last week . It reached our upside of 3160 on the back on our banks moving, Jardine and Venture having share buy backs . With renewed interest of opening up, this also has caused aviation stocks to move up but we prefer a pullback now before entering. Positive sentiments continue to flow and we might see our next resistance target of around 3200.

HSI

HSI also saw some bounce on a shorter week hitting our first resistance. The closing bar on Friday was a nice pin bar candle. As we see US side closing strong and the S&P cutting above its downtrend line. This could bring more positive movement as the bulls look to overcome the bears in the coming week. Watching HSI to break that resistance of around 25404. If that breaks, our next upside resistance would be 26209.

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead (2) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

10th October, 2021, 10:26 PM

Image source: Shutterstock.com

We hope you are well rested and ready for the week ahead.  As we ahead into another week lets do a recap and see what next week might bring.

Recap for STI & HSI 

For our local market, STI fought hard despite a few negative session over in the US. Energy,Oil, hospitality and covid related counters took center stage last week. Counters like Golden Energy, First Resource, Wilmar, Sats, Q&M Dental, Raffles Medical saw upside last week.

As for the HSI,  it was trying to find its footing as tech stocks saw some recovery as market is starting to absorb the bad news of  Evergrande and tech regulations.

Key Events to Watch For 

Over the weekend, our government gave more clarity in our battle with Covid , highlighting simplified healthcare protocols and the need for our mental attitude towards Covid. We’re slowly moving forward and becoming a Nation living with Covid. Recovery plays liek SATS, hospitality reits might continue to be in play. Energy and oil counters are also currently in play too.

Some events to watch out for overseas

1. Some of the World’s biggest banks will also kick off their Quarter 3 earnings season with Banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reporting their earnings this week.
2. The key U.S. economic report to watch this week is Wednesday’s data on consumer price inflation for September.
3. The Fed is to publish its September meeting minutes on Wednesday amid expectations that it will begin tapering asset purchases before the end of this year, an important first step towards eventual rate hikes.
4. Annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF get underway Monday, where officials will discuss the global economy, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and global taxation issues.
Technical Levels to Watch For
image source: AdvisorXS 10th Oct 2021

For STI, the support of 3024 held and we saw it break our short term downtrend line but resisted by the horizontal resistance previously mentioned at 3112. This week would be interesting as we watch and see if this resistance would break. If this breaks we might we a nice rebound for the week, our upside resistance is around 3160.

For HSI ,it has also broken the short term downtrend as the buying overcame the selling despite negative news which is a positive sign to us once again. It has reached some resistance around 25k and a clear break with a bullish bar might see more upside to around 26k with short term resistance in its path. Inflation fears, bad results earnings from US side might have negative sentiments so do watch out for it.

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

The Week Ahead – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

3rd October, 2021, 10:39 PM

We will be doing new series called The Week Ahead where we’ll share a weekly update on S&P500, Nasdaq , Hang Seng Index (Hongkong) and Straits Times Index ( Singapore) on our facebook and blog. We’ll recap what has happened to the markets , key events to look for during the week and  finally  some technical points to look out for in the coming weeks

Recap for STI & HSI 

For our local market, our sentiments continue to remain weak as it is affected by regional markets like HSI and of course USA. With inflation fears and rising 10 years treasury rates, this has continue to affect the sentiments over here. In addition, covid cases are rising in Singapore which adds another damper to our trading climate.

As for the HSI,  worries about the fallout of  Evergrande continues to spook the market affecting Furthermore regulatory concerns over the big tech players like Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan continues to weigh on the markets. But there has been surprising strength in the underlying market as every time when HSI opens lower it manages to have a good closing. Selling pressure seems to be meeting with more buying.

Key Events to Watch For 

A good news that came out where Merck said its new Covid pill reduces the risk of hospitalization, death by half for some patients. This could help lift sentiments especially for recovery stocks like SATS and SIA. Market will still be looking at the 10 year treasury yield for signs of inflation and interest rates.

Technical Levels to Watch For

Image source: AdvisorXs

For STI, it is still a range bound of around 3024 as the support (lower range) and 3112 resistance (upper range) . It is below the 20 and 50ema and the 20ema is below the 50ema which is a bearish sign. So STI has to hold the support of 3024 if not we might see a further downside to even 2928. There is also a short term downtrend line for it to overcome if we want to see any upside movement. A clearer sign would be for STI to break above 3112.

 

For HSI, technically still weak as it is below its 20 and 50ema. support at around 23672 and if that can’t hold then we might see it move lower to 23163 or even 22382. Interestingly HSI has been holding up well despite the pullback that is happening over in the USA and evergrande’s bearish sentiments. If the index manages to hold and break above the 25k resistance, we might see some rebound in the coming week which could take it up to around 25757.

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE! 

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Straits Times Index – [The Road Ahead]

30th August, 2021, 7:00 AM

Straits Times Index – [The Road Ahead]Straits Times Index 30th Aug 2021

Chart Source: AdvisorXs 30th Aug 2021

Familiar with the NDP theme song the road ahead by now?  Such a hit and very relatable as Sinagporeans navigate through the road ahead with courage and determination.

So what’s the road ahead like for our Straits Times Index? Is is choppy? Or is it a smooth ride ahead?  Well, lets take a look at the chart to get some idea. From a technical analysis perspective, STI is currently sitting on its horizontal support of around 3080 level. This coincides with the support of around March but if this support doesn’t hold we might see a further leg down to 3050 and if weakness persist, 3020 is the area of the previous gap cover. 3020 would be a key support for us but we’re hoping it doesn’t go there.  For the upside, STI has to break our downtrend line first as a first sign of strength and also the 5ema of around 3100. That would signal strength and as Fed gets the market ready for its bond tapering this year, we are keeping track to see how other market reacts as the sentiments will flow over to Asia. Some upside resistance might be around 3120 then 3160 and 3200.

The road ahead might not be easy but with an extra pair of eyes, the journey need not be so arduous.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Straits Times Index – [ Pulling Back, Downside Targets Updates! ]

21st April, 2021, 6:54 PM

Straits Times Index – [ Pulling Back, Downside Targets Updates! ]

Chart Source: Poemsview 21st April 2021

Since our last blog post just a week over ago, we started seeing the Straits Times Index slowly peeling away. It had actually tried to break above our breakout level but failed to do so and got slammed down instead. With such a move down, we might see it move lower to the  uptrend line  of around 3120 also around the 50ema, Banks are the usual suspect as they take up a bigger weightage in the STI component.

The next few support might be around 3060 at the gap support and if that fails to hold STI might cover the gap to 3020. If we do reach that level some bargain hunting might be good. A pullback to 3020 represents about 6% from the high of 3221 which is actually healthy. So don’t be surprised if STI does pullback to that level. Don’t get too used to just seeing the ups and know that market moves up and down.

So trade with care and always have a trade plan and know your time frame. Traders might have been caught with this pullback and might end up picking up shares and being a mid term investor. So ensure you are discipline when it comes to trading or investing.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Straits Times Index -[ Time For Pullback? Here’s Why]

9th April, 2021, 7:07 AM

Straits Times Index -[ Time For Pullback? Here’s Why]Straits Times Index 9th April 2021

Chart Source: Poemsview 9th April 2021

The Straits Times Index (STI) finished Q1 2021 with about 11% gain and its the strongest first quarter of calendar year since 2012. Best of all, our Straits Times Index which was the worst performing index in Asia last year have actually came in as the second best performer amongst the 18 global stocks index! WE got a fighting spirit eh!

The key driver for STI’s performance was mainly due to the banks which takes up about 40% of our STI.

From a technical analysis point of view our STI actually closed below the 5ema which it has been closing above for the past few weeks. Well, its not panic mode for us but this might signal some pullback that is to come in the next few days or so. A healthy pullback is also welcomed as investors now complain everything being overvalued or expensive.

Some healthy levels to pullback to might be the 20ema or even that uptrend line of around 3119. If STI manages to punch above the 5ema again and break out of the current 3220 zone then it might signal the continuation of the uptrend.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Straits Times Index – [ In The Midst Of A Pullback And Here’s What We Did Last Week!]

29th January, 2021, 7:14 AM

Straits Times Index – [ In The Midst Of A Pullback And Here’s What We Did Last Week!] Straits Times Index 29th Jan 2021

Chart Source: Poemsview 29th Jan 2021

Straits Times Index currently having a pullback from a high 3017 which might have come as a surprise for some but we’re thankful that our EXCLUSIVE CLIENTS were warned of this pullback last week. STI had moved up over 5% since the start of Jan and along with other  markets it looked tired and was tough to push higher. True enough some pullback came which is healthy in our view.

We have drawn some support levels for the STI with the 50ema of around 2866 being our major support. Support levels might present chance to scale in for long term stocks.

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Straits Times Index – [ Advanced Warning Given, Were You Prepared? ]

30th November, 2020, 7:49 PM

Straits Times Index – [ Advanced Warning Given, Were You Prepared? ]Straits Times Index 30th Nov 2020

Chart source: Poemsview 30th Nov 2020

Our Straits Times Index (STI) had an impressive run for the month of Nov up close to 20%! It is probably one of the most amazing month for our index in a long while. But as the saying goes, what goes up, must come down!

With such a steep upside we suspected a pullback would be on the cards very soon. So we sent a message warning our clients of a pullback and sharing our thoughts. We also attached a chart so that they’ll understanding it better.

The Straits Times Index saw a massive profit today after such a huge run up. The initial support at the 5ema gave way and the the downside started coming in. This took the index down over 2% to about the 10ema of about 2810. We’re glad we alerted our clients last week of a potential downside. A pullback like this is considered healthy to us if the market wants to sustain its upside move.

So what’s next for our index? Let’s see the charts and from it we might continue seeing some selling pressure if STI can’t stay above this 10ema support and might see it move down to even test the 20ema.

Be alert!

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Straits Times Index – [ Mid Day Updates, Looks Promising, Here’s Why! ]

29th September, 2020, 2:40 PM

Straits Times Index – [ Mid Day Updates, Looks Promising, Here’s Why! ]Straits Times Index 29th Sept 2020

Chart Source : Poemsview 29th Sept 2020

Straits Times Index has broken out of its midterm downtrend line and also has broke above its 20ema.

From technical analysis point of view, these are some promising cues which might have more upside potential. What we’re looking at is for the Straits Times Index to close above this 20ema and stay above it for the next few days. That could possibly be a bullish signal for the markets. Take a look at our Riverstone post and what happens when it crosses the 20ema.

If we see our three local banks, OCBC and UOB are currently above the 20ema while DBS is still under. Do keep a watch for it as we previously posted on it too.

We have drawn some potential support and resistance should STI be able to stay above the 20ema. Let’s hope we can see 2546 first in the coming weeks.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

Straits Times Index – [ Where Is The Support At? What’s The Game Plan Now? ]

22nd May, 2020, 3:55 PM

Straits Times Index – [ Where Is The Support At? What’s The Game Plan Now? ]Straits Times Index - 22nd may 2020

Chart Source : poemsview 22nd May 2020

Its close to 4pm now and the Straits Times Index is down over 50 points due to China tightening its grip on HK.

Hong Kong index is down over 1000 points or 5%, something which we haven’t seen in awhile. Due to the regional unrest, our Straits Times Index or STI also is affected . We’re down about 2% at the time of writing.

So what’s our game plan? If you noticed we’ve been rather bearish on the markets and continue to remain so until we see more convincing signs of rebound. With every rebound in the STI it seems to be making a Lower High despite US side having massive gains. This to us shows some weakness. STI is currently on its horizontal support of around 2500.

What could happen from here? Some possible scenarios:

  1. STI could have a rebound to cover the gap and test the downtrend again. Failure to break that might see more downside. If STI manages to break that downtrend line then our stand might change.
  2. STI could break the horizontal support level and might take us to around 2387 levels.
  3. STI could possibly hover around here and form a sideways consolidation before another move comes.

So stay alert! We’re eyeing more downside as you can see STI is below the moving averages but are flexible to react as market remains volatile and remembering the saying, Don’t Fight The Feds!

Want a  quick discussion on the market direction?

Feel free to drop us a line!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy