STI

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
22nd May, 2022, 11:31 AM

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

What a  week for the markets! Very interesting set ups for each markets and there’s so much happening. China cutting interest rates and shanghai coming out of lockdown very soon. china government looking to support the tech sector and stop regulations, giving a boost to the tech sector. US inflation is looking to soften.  The S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory but managed to close above that. Could this be the start of a sustained rebound? Do remember to check out all our updates on our Facebook too!

STI

The bounce came in for STI as regional market tries to find their footing and ended up on a positive note for the week. STI currently near the horizontal resistance of around 3249 but we do think that its possible for more upside as the banks for building a base and might look to rebound in the coming week. Upside resistance at 3297 to cover that  mini gap.

HSI

HSI cautious moved up during the week and ended with a bang as China cuts their interest rates which gave the market a much need boost. It is now at the important downtrend resistance line. Its the third time testing this line and usually it takes about 4 times for a stronger break. But with news of a interest rate cut, this might help in the push up so we’re looking for a break and even a test of around 22390 level in the coming weeks. Remember this is more for short term trading. For Long term holders, if you have been following us then you probably might have a position in the HSI already. So continue to hold for that and wait for the bigger recovery to come.

Have a great trading week ahead!

And do go to our Facebook for Nasdaq and S&P 500 updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , ,
8th May, 2022, 4:28 PM

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week as US markets swung to both the up and down and settled down at the end of the week. Markets around the world continue to face downwards pressure as Fed increased rates last week and the 10 year yield curve crossed over the 3% mark. We continue to watch and wait for more signals for the  US markets.

Key Events to Watch For 

US companies continue to report their results this week and also on Wednesday, the US CPI numbers will be released.

Wednesday – CPI numbers

Thursday – US PPI

Markets will probably be watching these numbers to see how inflation has been so far.

STI

STI was in range for the week and is now sitting at our support of around 3297. The support doesn’t look like it might hold as market hasn’t found a firm footing yet. The next downside support is at around the 3250 area. But meanwhile, there are still pocket of stocks still moving up like the coal related stocks. Our local banks are also taking a break and might see further downwards momentum.

HSI

HSI also came off to the support of 20k once again and it does not seem like it’ll hold at this price. Short term as mentioned we’re not bullish as yet as HSI can’t break the downtrend line and can’t remain above the 5ema too. Downside support at around 19490 level as HSI continues to find a base.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
24th April, 2022, 8:30 AM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Dow Jones PLUNGES more than 900 points for its worst day since 2020! US markets are having a rough time and if you’re an invested in the US markets, its natural to feel fearful or SIAN. Fed’s Powell spooked the markets as he said a 50 basis point for may hike is very possible which sent market into a nose dive.

As retailers are scrambling for the exit, we hope you’re invested into good solid companies that can withstand the test of time. TESLA is one of them, despite all that the market is going through, we can see that TESLA is still standing strong. More earning results coming out this week so be alert. To find out more when are the other companies reporting results, you can head over HERE. 

STI

And STI has pulled back to 3300 level as mentioned last week. After testing that level some rebound came too. Even though STI came off, we still saw individual stocks moving up and hitting our targets.  It is currently resisted around the 3360-3371 level. With US very weak closing, we might see some negative sentiments flowing in first. With Singapore relaxing more of its measure and going back to pre-covid norms, we might see STI inching out a gain this week.

HSI

HSI also came off as expected. It covered the gap to come down close to 20k support level. We’re still not bullish  for the short term and would be looking out for signs of a reversal first. If we look closely, the 5ema has been pinning down the index and it hasn’t been able to stay above that. In addition, the downtrend is also pinning it down. So waiting for further signal to turn short term bullish. For long term investors, once again, opportunities arises!

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
17th April, 2022, 4:18 PM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week as US market kicks off earning seasons. We have warned that markets are not of the woods yet as market are still trying to find their footing and have not gained any strong grounds yet.  BOA, J&J, TESLA and many more other companies will be reporting their first quarter results. This is key to see as it could set the tone for the year as companies grapple with supply side constraints and with a rising interest rate environment too. This might also lead to markets fluctuating as market takes some cue from earnings.  To find out more when are the other companies reporting results, you can head over HERE. 

STI

As mentioned last week, we expected more pullback for the STI and it has come true. STI has pulled back to 3340 level and we might see further pullback to 3300. This level might see more bargain hunting and we’ll be waiting. Don’t forget although the index might be down, individual stocks can still move up. Oil and coal related stocks are still moving up!

HSI

Weakness also flow into the Hong Kong markets as previously mentioned but with some trickle of good news where the Chinese government finally gave approval for some games. Not turning bullish unless we see more convincing signs, like staying above the downtrend lines. Our downside target remains at around 20000.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , ,
10th April, 2022, 4:12 PM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will shrink balance sheet ‘rapidly’ and it also sent the market into a rapid descend during the week. As fed continues to tighten monetary policy through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet, markets didn’t take it that well and started selling off especially the tech related sector.

We’re not out of the woods yet as key indices are near key support levels and we need to see support before making any moves.

STI

As mentioned, STI came off and went down to the 20ema support. It saw a slight rebound but we’re not convinced of it yet and might be heading lower to 3340 first. Although the STI is down, there are some pocket of stocks that are up like Sembcorp Industries, coal related stocks which we are glad we have caught them. So do look at individual stocks to see their strength too.

HSI

HSI moving in a bit of sideways unable to push higher but yet not pulling lower. The consolidation band is around 21260 level to 22397 area and we’re looking to see where it’ll go for now. Odds are for it to shift lower for a better entry unless there is strength to break that downtrend line and then the resistance of 22397. Looking for a clearer picture for the HSI.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
27th March, 2022, 1:03 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Post Fed hike and markets have generally trend higher. Ever since S&P 500 has broken above one of its key resistance level of 4300, we have seen it moved up another 5% to touch the 100days simple moving average. A very nice gain for the past week or so. This post will be slightly shorter as Covid has taken over the household and rest and recover is the order of the day.

STI

STI has hit our 3402 upside resistance and find see it push up further this week. Recovery stocks were in play as Covid measures were eased and borders measure further lax as we welcome more international travelers. This caused the 3 S stocks like SATS, SIA and SIA Engineering to FLY. We caught SIA Engineering and SATS which made our client’s week much happier! Electronic stocks also saw recovery as previously mentioned and  AEM led the pack in pushing it up.  Next upside resistance at around 3453 and downside support at 3349

HSI

Some pullback in the HSI which is healthy as there was a huge rebound. If HSI pullbacks to around the 20k mark which covers the gap and stays around there. This would signal a good higher low in progress! Will be keeping a watch out for that as the HK markets now looks more promising! Tencent posted a set of results that was up to analyst expectation but with slower growth as a concern this caused some pullback in the stock. Waiting for a base to be built before any long entry.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th March, 2022, 4:32 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Two very important announcements  took place over the week which was China coming up to pledge support for the markets and Fed announcing rate hike and the future hikes that is to come. All in all, it was a crazy week as market saw a nice recovery throughout.

HSI

Paying a little more attention to this particular market as China has come up to pledge support for the market and would soon wind down on the regulatory front. It also pledge help to support companies listed overseas as delisting concerns sent HK tech stocks plummeting through the week. This also came on the back when JPMorgan China Internet analysts Alex Yao and team said this sector is “univestable” for the next 6-12 months. And before you know it, the market rallied over 16%. =)

So, how Hong Kong Market bottomed? That’s the question we’ve been getting throughout the week. In a nutshell, nobody knows BUT with further investigation, we can probably see a change in trend to the upside and these are some of the points for us to see if it has bottomed.

  1. Moving Averages , a good way to tell a trend is by looking at the moving averages. For now, we can see that the 50ema is still above the 20ma which still signal a downtrend. WAITING for a crossover of the 20 over the 50 for a confirmation in trend change.
  2. News of China supporting the market on Wednesday which might now help to build a base around the 18200 mark.
  3. For a sign of market bottom, a re-test near the low would show sign of strength and this could then provide a higher low in the making.
  4. Also the next bounce up should be higher than the 20ema of around 21550 to provide a higher swing high.

When we see these in play, we would then be more confident of a market bottom.

On a side note, don’t be too obsessed in finding the bottom as we all KNOW by now, nobody can find that bottom. Once might be lucky and the good old dollar cost average AND proper allocation into individual stock. So no real point in mentioning hey, i managed to grab Alibaba at HKD$73 or Tencent at $300. If you consistently are able to do that, PLEASE give me a call, you got my number. =)

Like an naggy parent, invest into QUALITY stocks and even with a downfall, you can still sleep in peace at night. UNLESS you have wrongly allocated into a stock then you probably won’t sleep that well.

STI

We’re pleased with our alerts on the Singapore market for the last 2 months even though HK & US were down, we managed to achieve a high 90% accuracy in our alerts to our clients. With fed increasing the interest rate, it is no surprise that LOCAL BANKS have moved up after the announcement. We’re glad we have positioned our clients for this ride once again.

Electronic stocks are also looking for a rebound but we will want to be nimble for these stocks. More upside for our STI might be seen from the chart above.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market, Straits times index , , , ,
13th March, 2022, 4:20 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will be meeting this week and we’re most likely going to see an increase in rates. What is more important is the fed’s posture, how many times they’re looking at for hike and how fast. An increase in march is more or less a given only by 0.25% or 0.5%. With inflation at sky high, fed is also under pressure to tame inflation.

With the war that is happening, this has really changed the game plan and even the outlook of the economy. With the ongoing sanctions, oil prices increasing this has increased the  chances of a bear market. The increase in commodity prices will have ripple effects on the economy and markets could see a slow down for the time being. We wouldn’t want to use too much leverage in such times as the chances of a bear market has increased.

Key Events to Watch For 

Development over in Ukraine is key as its hard to tell how this war will end and how long more will the fighting carry on. Markets continue to remain on edge as this war does look different from the others.

Eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March and decision on rate hike will be announced on Thursday morning 17th March singapore time. Near term volatility is expected.

Reduced leverage, stick to your trading plan with a tight stop loss. Now is not the time to be aggressive or a hero.

Market continues to be near the extreme fear region which investor might want to take advantage of.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Singapore market performing the best for us with most of our Singapore targets hitting their targets despite the negative market sentiments. We’re cautious this week as Fed is set to increase interest rates hence for trading position we wouldn’t be aggressive but would rather adopt a wait and see approach.

HSI 

Norway sovereign fund’s offloading Li Ning is triggering some worries in the HK markets, tech companies reporting lower results due to regulations, US delisting fears for dual listing China companies, Covid cases increasing both in mainland china and HK. Its a never ending list of fear and uncertainty for the HK market. It is possible for a test of around 20k for HK before some bargain hunting comes in. Indicators are currently oversold too. Trading has been tough in HK market and we haven’t been giving any alerts for the HK markets for while. Waiting for a more stability in HK first.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th February, 2022, 4:45 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week for the US as Ukraine-Russia tension grew and markets pulled back on fear of war breaking out over there.  China continues to push new regulations with the latest on Friday  issuing guidance for online food delivery platforms to reduce service fees to help to lower operating costs for catering businesses.  This sent Meituan (3690.HK) down 15% . Singapore once again fair better than the West BUT it might be time to take a break from the weeks of gains. As we enter a new week, tensions of war along side with rising inflation will continue to haunt the markets. S&P 500 has also closed below its 200 days moving average, are we expecting more downside? Read on to find out more.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence (Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.)

Thursday – US GDP Q4, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories

Friday – Core Durable Goods Order (Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.)

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As mentioned last week, its good for STI to have some pullback so that traders and investors can move in. A spinning top pattern like candlestick formed on Thursday and with Friday’s candle closing lower, we might see more downside this week. Some support levels we’re looking at, 3400 then 3368 first. Banks continue to hold the index up, although we have seen pockets of Blue Chip stocks moving up especially the recovery play ones like SATS, Comfort, SIA Eng and even Thaibev. We’re continuing to focus on these recovery stocks.

HSI 

Just as HSI was gaining some grounds, but China  has decided to enforce more regulations regarding online delivery to reduce their service fees to spur greater economic growth. That sent the HK markets into a dive sparking another round of sell off as investors worry of more regulatory crack down. Tencent, Alibaba, JD all took a hit and we’ll wait for a base to form once again to look for entry. HSI might see more downside to about 23647 before finding some support

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has closed below its 200 days moving average for 2 days straight. Its not a good sign and has to regain above this in the next 2-3 trading days if not be prepared for more downside. Overall, if S&P 500 tests the previous low, we’re only at about 12%  correction which is still possible for a further downside to even 15-18%. So hang on tight as markets grapple with the ever changing tune of Russia- Ukraine tension. Bracing for more downside. to 4290 first.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq also is below the 200 moving average for the past week and is structurally weak which signals more downside. Tech stocks continue to struggle with ongoing concerns of more rate hike throughout the year. A pullback to 13448 wouldn’t be surprising as that would represent about 20% price correction.

Hang in tight if you’re invested into fundamentally good stocks with wide economic moat.

For traders, do stick to your stop loss and be disciplined especially during such times. Hedging is also a strategy to adopt for this year as we uncover the benefits and reasons for this strategy last week.

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , ,
13th February, 2022, 3:48 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

The start of the week was a good one for Asia markets as we saw many of our Asian counters hitting their porfit targets. But as the week drew to a close, hot inflation numbers spook the markets, sending the 10 year yield curve temporarily above 2%. To add fuel to the fire, talks about an emergency fed meeting to raise rates before March further escalated the drop. Goldman even sees Fed hiking rates from 5 to 7 times this year which caused further panic.  Also, Russo-Ukrainian war continues to spark fears in the market causing the S&P500 to drop even more on Friday but Oil gained an upper ground.  All in all, Asia continues to outperform the US markets.

Key Events to Watch For 

As tension carries on this week, keep a lookout for development on the Ukraine front and watching fed to see any updates from them.

Tuesday – PPI (The  Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.) Watch this!

Wednesday– Core Retail Sale  ( Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.)

Crude Oil Inventories – Oil traders take note to see how bullish oil will be

Thursday – Building permits & Initial Job Claims

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

The STI continues to outperform the markets and even our expectations pushing up higher this week. We’re glad a lot of our counters are finding their profit targets with some hitting over multiple targets in the week.  STI has been up close to 2 weeks already and it might be time for some healthy pullback if not it’ll be tough for re-entries. We’re eyeing a pullback to 3366 level. So far, the banks are once again pushing the index up while other recovery counters like comfort and sats are also pulling their weight.

HSI 

Over in Hong Kong, the markets got a boost as reports of China State funds buying stocks to help stem declines. Covid cases continues to raise and strict measures are in place to curb the spread. HSI has hit our short term upside target and pulled back to a level of support both horizontal and the 5ema. With a few negative sentiments out now, we’re cautious going into this week. If the 5ema doesn’t hold, we might see it get pushed down to the 20ema of around 24330 area.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy