Straits times index

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , ,
10th April, 2022, 4:12 PM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will shrink balance sheet ‘rapidly’ and it also sent the market into a rapid descend during the week. As fed continues to tighten monetary policy through a series of interest rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet, markets didn’t take it that well and started selling off especially the tech related sector.

We’re not out of the woods yet as key indices are near key support levels and we need to see support before making any moves.

STI

As mentioned, STI came off and went down to the 20ema support. It saw a slight rebound but we’re not convinced of it yet and might be heading lower to 3340 first. Although the STI is down, there are some pocket of stocks that are up like Sembcorp Industries, coal related stocks which we are glad we have caught them. So do look at individual stocks to see their strength too.

HSI

HSI moving in a bit of sideways unable to push higher but yet not pulling lower. The consolidation band is around 21260 level to 22397 area and we’re looking to see where it’ll go for now. Odds are for it to shift lower for a better entry unless there is strength to break that downtrend line and then the resistance of 22397. Looking for a clearer picture for the HSI.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
27th March, 2022, 1:03 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Post Fed hike and markets have generally trend higher. Ever since S&P 500 has broken above one of its key resistance level of 4300, we have seen it moved up another 5% to touch the 100days simple moving average. A very nice gain for the past week or so. This post will be slightly shorter as Covid has taken over the household and rest and recover is the order of the day.

STI

STI has hit our 3402 upside resistance and find see it push up further this week. Recovery stocks were in play as Covid measures were eased and borders measure further lax as we welcome more international travelers. This caused the 3 S stocks like SATS, SIA and SIA Engineering to FLY. We caught SIA Engineering and SATS which made our client’s week much happier! Electronic stocks also saw recovery as previously mentioned and  AEM led the pack in pushing it up.  Next upside resistance at around 3453 and downside support at 3349

HSI

Some pullback in the HSI which is healthy as there was a huge rebound. If HSI pullbacks to around the 20k mark which covers the gap and stays around there. This would signal a good higher low in progress! Will be keeping a watch out for that as the HK markets now looks more promising! Tencent posted a set of results that was up to analyst expectation but with slower growth as a concern this caused some pullback in the stock. Waiting for a base to be built before any long entry.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th March, 2022, 4:32 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [ Has Hong Kong Reached A Bottom? ]

Two very important announcements  took place over the week which was China coming up to pledge support for the markets and Fed announcing rate hike and the future hikes that is to come. All in all, it was a crazy week as market saw a nice recovery throughout.

HSI

Paying a little more attention to this particular market as China has come up to pledge support for the market and would soon wind down on the regulatory front. It also pledge help to support companies listed overseas as delisting concerns sent HK tech stocks plummeting through the week. This also came on the back when JPMorgan China Internet analysts Alex Yao and team said this sector is “univestable” for the next 6-12 months. And before you know it, the market rallied over 16%. =)

So, how Hong Kong Market bottomed? That’s the question we’ve been getting throughout the week. In a nutshell, nobody knows BUT with further investigation, we can probably see a change in trend to the upside and these are some of the points for us to see if it has bottomed.

  1. Moving Averages , a good way to tell a trend is by looking at the moving averages. For now, we can see that the 50ema is still above the 20ma which still signal a downtrend. WAITING for a crossover of the 20 over the 50 for a confirmation in trend change.
  2. News of China supporting the market on Wednesday which might now help to build a base around the 18200 mark.
  3. For a sign of market bottom, a re-test near the low would show sign of strength and this could then provide a higher low in the making.
  4. Also the next bounce up should be higher than the 20ema of around 21550 to provide a higher swing high.

When we see these in play, we would then be more confident of a market bottom.

On a side note, don’t be too obsessed in finding the bottom as we all KNOW by now, nobody can find that bottom. Once might be lucky and the good old dollar cost average AND proper allocation into individual stock. So no real point in mentioning hey, i managed to grab Alibaba at HKD$73 or Tencent at $300. If you consistently are able to do that, PLEASE give me a call, you got my number. =)

Like an naggy parent, invest into QUALITY stocks and even with a downfall, you can still sleep in peace at night. UNLESS you have wrongly allocated into a stock then you probably won’t sleep that well.

STI

We’re pleased with our alerts on the Singapore market for the last 2 months even though HK & US were down, we managed to achieve a high 90% accuracy in our alerts to our clients. With fed increasing the interest rate, it is no surprise that LOCAL BANKS have moved up after the announcement. We’re glad we have positioned our clients for this ride once again.

Electronic stocks are also looking for a rebound but we will want to be nimble for these stocks. More upside for our STI might be seen from the chart above.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market, Straits times index , , , ,
13th March, 2022, 4:20 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fed will be meeting this week and we’re most likely going to see an increase in rates. What is more important is the fed’s posture, how many times they’re looking at for hike and how fast. An increase in march is more or less a given only by 0.25% or 0.5%. With inflation at sky high, fed is also under pressure to tame inflation.

With the war that is happening, this has really changed the game plan and even the outlook of the economy. With the ongoing sanctions, oil prices increasing this has increased the  chances of a bear market. The increase in commodity prices will have ripple effects on the economy and markets could see a slow down for the time being. We wouldn’t want to use too much leverage in such times as the chances of a bear market has increased.

Key Events to Watch For 

Development over in Ukraine is key as its hard to tell how this war will end and how long more will the fighting carry on. Markets continue to remain on edge as this war does look different from the others.

Eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March and decision on rate hike will be announced on Thursday morning 17th March singapore time. Near term volatility is expected.

Reduced leverage, stick to your trading plan with a tight stop loss. Now is not the time to be aggressive or a hero.

Market continues to be near the extreme fear region which investor might want to take advantage of.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Singapore market performing the best for us with most of our Singapore targets hitting their targets despite the negative market sentiments. We’re cautious this week as Fed is set to increase interest rates hence for trading position we wouldn’t be aggressive but would rather adopt a wait and see approach.

HSI 

Norway sovereign fund’s offloading Li Ning is triggering some worries in the HK markets, tech companies reporting lower results due to regulations, US delisting fears for dual listing China companies, Covid cases increasing both in mainland china and HK. Its a never ending list of fear and uncertainty for the HK market. It is possible for a test of around 20k for HK before some bargain hunting comes in. Indicators are currently oversold too. Trading has been tough in HK market and we haven’t been giving any alerts for the HK markets for while. Waiting for a more stability in HK first.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
6th March, 2022, 4:46 PM

The Week Ahead March 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another rollercoaster week as fighting rages on. One can only hope and wish for fighting to stop and parties to come back to the negotiation tables. As there is a cease fire going on and talks to resumes on Monday, we can pray that it will be one that is fruitful and not just to buy time and nothing good comes out of it.

Adding fuel to the fire, eyes will be on the upcoming Fed Meeting from 15-16th March regarding interest rate hike which might cause some near term volatility again.

Lastly, the annual meetings of two of China’s top political bodies has commenced this weekend. The economic and legislative decisions made at these meetings will provide a roadmap for China’s economic and social development in 2022 and are therefore of high importance to any player in the China market.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to keep tabs on the fighting and development in Ukraine while also keeping track of the impending rising interest rates.

Thursday – Initial Jobless claim, Core CPI numbers ( The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.) Take note as market might react to this too.

The Fear & Greed Index is at extreme FEAR now which we think is once again an opportunity to scale in rather than FLEEING. Of course remember to scale in in batches and not go in all at once. Nobody knows when the market will bottom.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Didn’t get the rebound that we were anticipating but the interesting thing was that the stocks that we have selected all produced positive gains! STI currently supported at around 3215, looking for this to hold before any rebound. BANKS are starting to looking juicy after the sell down, its on our radar now!

S&P 500

Seeing some rebound at the 4290 area with a hammer candlestick which could be positive for some rebound. S&P 500 has corrected about 14% and that 4110 remains critical. The week ahead still hinges on the war and interest rates and for traders you might want to scale back on your lot size. Market is not stable yet. Although we are looking for some upside this week, do ensure for a proper set up before entering. The near term resistance is around 4461.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq still not out of the woods and still facing selling pressure. We might see it move down to 13471 level first as rising interest rate might spook the tech stocks once again. Waiting for a more stable structure to form and a nice candle to form before taking further trading action.

HSI 

Last but not least but one of the most disappointing market for the year, is our HSI. Started well for the week but due to geo political events and more regulatory measures from China, this has really put a dampen on the HSI. We might see it move to 21138 level in the coming week and there we might see more bargain hunting come around. China’s meeting this week also sets the tone to where the HSI might be heading. Don’t give up on this fella yet!

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
27th February, 2022, 4:34 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Fighting has erupted over in Ukraine as Russia forces begin its invasion! Its something not totally unimaginable but something we all really want to avoid. Unfortunately Putin has given the green light and lives had been lost over the week. Hoping for a quick resolution to this and for both countries to go back to the negotiation table.

News of fighting has definitely sent the markets into a sharp sell off, a move also not surprising. For INVESTORS who sold, they might have found themselves in a bit of a tight spot as market rebound eliminating the downside even for the week! As we continue to remind our clients the importance of remaining calm and investing into fundamentally good stocks lets look ahead to see what the week ahead might bring for us.

Key Events to Watch For 

Markets will continue to watch for new developments on the fighting front and will turn its eyes back onto data when the situation has stabilize.

Wednesday – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.)

Thursday – Fed Chair Powells Testify (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell  is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

 Friday – Nonfarm payroll, Unemployment rate
Taking note of the Fear & Greed Index and the AAII Sentiment index.
Source: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Source: https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

These are some indicators to gauge the market sentiments and as we can see, market is getting more bearish and with the recent events that is happening, more bearish sentiments are around. As we have mentioned previously, S&P500 correcting about 15% is not unexpected and INVESTORS might have to take the chance to pick up quality stocks. Whenever market is at extreme fear, that’s when we should take advantage of it and not buy into the FEAR. Of course this will take studies and analysis and conviction.

For traders, ensure you have proper set ups ready! DO NOT ENTER without a trade plan and especially without a stop loss.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As we kept cautioning about a possible retreat in the STI, it has happen and with such ferocity. It has broken below that lower uptrend support line and went straight down close to the 100ema support which is also near a horizontal support of around 3229. As market pullback, take this opportunity to pick up the local banks! =) STI might stage some rebound in the coming week and start consolidating of a range between 3280-3360.

HSI 

As HSI came to our first support of 23647 then came another shockwave of fighting erupting over in Europe. This sent the HSI to a deep plunge as investors and traders panic and sold off their positions. A triple support can be seen of around  22767 area and if this holds, we might see the HSI starting a nice bounce to 23647 level. Looking for a bounce this week.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th February, 2022, 4:45 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week for the US as Ukraine-Russia tension grew and markets pulled back on fear of war breaking out over there.  China continues to push new regulations with the latest on Friday  issuing guidance for online food delivery platforms to reduce service fees to help to lower operating costs for catering businesses.  This sent Meituan (3690.HK) down 15% . Singapore once again fair better than the West BUT it might be time to take a break from the weeks of gains. As we enter a new week, tensions of war along side with rising inflation will continue to haunt the markets. S&P 500 has also closed below its 200 days moving average, are we expecting more downside? Read on to find out more.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence (Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.)

Thursday – US GDP Q4, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories

Friday – Core Durable Goods Order (Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.)

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As mentioned last week, its good for STI to have some pullback so that traders and investors can move in. A spinning top pattern like candlestick formed on Thursday and with Friday’s candle closing lower, we might see more downside this week. Some support levels we’re looking at, 3400 then 3368 first. Banks continue to hold the index up, although we have seen pockets of Blue Chip stocks moving up especially the recovery play ones like SATS, Comfort, SIA Eng and even Thaibev. We’re continuing to focus on these recovery stocks.

HSI 

Just as HSI was gaining some grounds, but China  has decided to enforce more regulations regarding online delivery to reduce their service fees to spur greater economic growth. That sent the HK markets into a dive sparking another round of sell off as investors worry of more regulatory crack down. Tencent, Alibaba, JD all took a hit and we’ll wait for a base to form once again to look for entry. HSI might see more downside to about 23647 before finding some support

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has closed below its 200 days moving average for 2 days straight. Its not a good sign and has to regain above this in the next 2-3 trading days if not be prepared for more downside. Overall, if S&P 500 tests the previous low, we’re only at about 12%  correction which is still possible for a further downside to even 15-18%. So hang on tight as markets grapple with the ever changing tune of Russia- Ukraine tension. Bracing for more downside. to 4290 first.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq also is below the 200 moving average for the past week and is structurally weak which signals more downside. Tech stocks continue to struggle with ongoing concerns of more rate hike throughout the year. A pullback to 13448 wouldn’t be surprising as that would represent about 20% price correction.

Hang in tight if you’re invested into fundamentally good stocks with wide economic moat.

For traders, do stick to your stop loss and be disciplined especially during such times. Hedging is also a strategy to adopt for this year as we uncover the benefits and reasons for this strategy last week.

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , ,
6th February, 2022, 2:31 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

It was a choppy week over in US as the S&P 500 pulled itself out of the weekly 200SMA but saw a pullback during the week. Major companies reported their Q4 earning with Meta missing its earnings and giving a disappointing Q1 guidance. The 10 year yield curve also spiked up to 1.9% which caused some markets jitters. As Asia was on a longer break, most of the markets remained up despite the negative sentiments out there.

Key Events to Watch For 

Wednesday – Crude Oil Inventories.  The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claim

Friday – US Fed Monetary Policy Report. This is the fed reserve board submits written reports to Congress containing discussion he conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future.

This coming week there will be more earning results like Pfizer, Pepsico, Disney and tech firms such Twitter, are
Remember to refer to below link to see Earnings calendar of your favourite companies.

Take note of the 10 year yield curve too.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

We saw a push up for the STI after a short pullback  which is a bullish sign as it broke above the 3300 level. We might see it push higher during the coming weeks to 3350 level before another pullback occurs. Banks, travel stocks, E stocks are seeing rebound too. Stocks like Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries are shining too.

HSI 

It had one full day of trading last Friday but saw a huge catch up and closed up over 3%. Its considered a lot for an index to move 3% in a day. After a pullback, HSI has risen again and we might look for it to test the upside resistance of 25077 area and even 25404.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
30th January, 2022, 4:04 PM

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Crazy week with crazy volatility as the S&P swung from red to green and green to red. Many stop loss were hit along the way and it was probably a tough time for short term traders but for the long term investors, it was a golden opportunity to pick up quality stock at a bargain. The hawkish fed pushed market further down after its statement BUT once again markets looks like its holding up pretty well! Read on to find out our thoughts on the market.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – U.S ISM Manufacturing purchasing Managers Index

Wednesday – Crude Oil Inventories , ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

Thursday – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Friday – Nonfarm  Payrolls

There are many big earnings coming out this week like Alphabet, Starbucks, Meta so do take note of your companies which are releasing results this week.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Its going to be a relatively short week for Singapore market as she breaks for the Chinese New Year holidays.

Singapore market will be on half day on 31st Jan , closed on 1st and 2nd Feb and will be open on 3rd Feb (Thursday). Volumes are expected to be lesser as traders will probably take off and rest for the week.

STI has come down to our first level of support which we mentioned last week. Banks pulled back with the only exception of OCBC powering through the week playing catch up. We still waiting for further pullback before making any moves in Singapore. STI testing the 3200 support area might be a good chance to look at the Singapore markets again.

Sembcorp Industries has been holding up very well and the E- stocks are seeing a rebound after a hard slam down.

HSI

Hong Kong will have an even longer break. Opening on 31st Jan for half a day and will be closed all the way till Thursday (3rd Feb) and finally opening on 4th Feb. With just around one day of trading, markets could be softer and we’re looking. HSI came off together with the global negative sentiments and is currently sitting on the short term uptrend line. We’re expecting a bit more pullback before a rebound comes. We’re still bullish on HSI.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently trying to find a base and its been a good opportunity for investors to scale in to quality companies. Not sure of what companies to look out for? Just drop us a message.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , ,
23rd January, 2022, 4:17 PM

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

The Nasdaq 100 is in correction territory falling over 13% while the S&P 500 pull backed over 8%. BUT, if you noticed something, both HSI and STI didn’t fall! Are we starting to see something interesting here? Is this the start of some value surfacing from the Hong Kong market? Read on!

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – FED MEETING

Wednesday – FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claim

The Federal Reserve’s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday is the big event for markets in the week ahead, with investors hoping for more guidance on the central bank’s plan to raise interest rates. Markets have been lackluster and awaiting further direction from the Fed.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

STI remaining resilient even though there was a sell down over in US. Banks ,commodity and energy stocks gave a helping hand to support the index. We are now very close to the 3300 psychological resistance and we would prefer some pullback first before making a move. A pullback to that uptrend line is healthy to us.  Electronic stock in Singapore saw a pullback due to interest rate concerns as investors took profit off the table first. There might be more downside for this sector. So holding back first.

HSI

Another index that showed resilience is the HSI! China cut its lending rates this week while US is looking to increase its interest rates. Could the Hong Kong and China market outperform US this year? We covered that in our webinar last week! We are hopeful! The HSI managed to regain footing above the uptrend support turn resistance line and even close above the 5ema. There are very positive signs and even on the backdrop of Xi Jinping no mercy in corruption and monopoly crackdown in the later part of the week. More upside might be seen to 25400 levels but of course markets are still looking to fed meeting before making major moves. Keep a watch!

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy