The Week Ahead Jan 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

15th January, 2023, 9:58 PM

Another good week for the markets as CPI came in line and markets generally took it well. US and HK markets ended up for the week while our STI covered the gap as mentioned before having some pullback. Reporting season has started in the US with major banks kicking it off. More companies will be reporting and markets will look at major tech, banks to gauge the strength of the economy.  Very exciting developments in the US as S&P500 closes above the 200ema!

Do take a look at the earnings calendar https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar/ to ensure when your favourite companies will be reporting.

Its a week before Chinese New Year so we might see markets slowing down especially HK/China as they will be going for a longer break after this.

STI

Straits Times Index

As shared last week, STI has hit our upside resistance of 3336 covering the gap and pulling back after. STI might go for a re-test of that resistance level. Our STI so far is in a wider sideway consolidation after a good run last year. And only with breaking of 3336 then we might see STI moving towards the 3450 mark. Watch for the re-test first.

HSI

HSI pulled back to the 5ema and went back up as expected! For such a powerful uptrend which we mentioned, the 5ema will be the first support and guide. So far, the HSI hasn’t closed below the 5ema which indicates the strength of the index. We might see HSI testing the 22106 upside resistance in the coming week before any pulback! What a crazy ride for the HSI!

You don’t want to miss our take on S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

So head over to our Facbook page for a read

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Dec 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

11th December, 2022, 2:56 PM

Wholesale data disappointed the markets with data coming in at 0.1% higher than expected. Markets reacted and started selling. It tried to recover during the day but still ended down after a good fight.

With two key data to look out for, markets this week might be slighted muted as it awaits the data.

Two key data are CPI (Consumer price index) on Tuesday, If this comes out higher than expected, we might see more sell down as hopes for a smaller rate hike on Wednesday might be diminished.

And on Wednesday, Fed will decide if it will do a 0.5% or 0.75% rate hike if it goes with a 0.5% hike, market should move up for a year end rally. Markets will also look for clues if Fed will start pivoting and start slowing rate hike to even 0.25% for the next round of meeting. This could also help add fuel to the recent rally. Key resistance for S&P500is around 4080 and a break above that could see S&P500 move up to 4250.

STI

Bingo! STI came down to our downside target of 3224 as mentioned last week.

Overall ,our straits times index is trading in a side ways movement with the immediate support being at 3222 while the upper resistance is at 3303. If we break the support of 3222, we might see further downside to 3177. With two key data to look out for, markets this week might be slighted muted as it awaits the data. With the negative close on Wall Street, we might see a negative opening first then fight her way through the day. As big data is coming out this week, we prefer to go lighter for the week before re-entering as it could shape the week after that.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index is on steroids! After a slight pullback it continues to march on towards our 20k target! We could see it tip over the 20k before any retracement as traders and investors who fear missing out continue to buy in on any dips. We would prefer some pullback now as the 20k could act as  a psychological level. Although we’re still far from the top, we do hear clients telling us aiya, miss already! We still feel there is good opportunity in the China/ Hong Kong market and we’re just getting started only!

As usual, if you need to talk, we’re here, just a message away.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Dec 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

4th December, 2022, 3:52 PM

The Fed delivered some good news last week as it hinted that they could start slowing down rates even as early in December which saw the US markets SURGED as traders started piling in positions while shortist were forced to cover their short positions. Profit taking could be seen after that as such part of healthy movement . For the week ahead, markets will continue to look for data to support its run and with Fed’s meeting coming up the week after, market will probably remain sideways for the week.

STI

STI retraced very close to the 20ema and then saw a rebound from there. For now, the Straits Times Index is showing resistance at the 3308 area and its about the third time that it’s testing this resistance. We’re expecting to see more downside for the week as STI as it closed below the 5 and 10ema. Once again, first downside we’re looking at is around 3234 area which is the 20ema. DBS closed below its 20ema again and is sitting at the uptrend support line. If that breaks, more downside will come which will bring the index down too.

HSI

We saw the Hang Seng Index pulling back to our target of around 16741 AND China govt called for a press conference urging the elderly to go for their booster. Also, China continues to ease a little with regards to their Covid measure allowing low risk Covid patients to recover from home.

With that, as we saw the market turning up that’s when we alerted all our clients of this change in directions so that they can take the appropriate action! Now that HSI has come to our resistance, a pullback once again is healthy but this time to the 10ema first before we decide on our next move. Hong Kong/ China has been on a aggressive march up and if you’re missing out on this historical recovery then we hope we’re able to help with you it!

As usual, if you need to talk, we’re here, just a message away.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th November, 2022, 4:14 PM

It was a mixed week as Asia markets saw some pullback while US markets had some upside. The usual Jobless claim, Nonfarm payroll would be watched as the next Fed meeting in December draws near. If data starts to suggest that employment is slowing and more Americans are out of job then there could be a chance of a smaller increase in Dec. This could spark the last leg of a year end rally since the low of 3500.

STI

 

Straits Times Index 27th Nov

As expected we saw the Straits Times Index having some pullback nearing our 3220 downside target. 😊 Banks mainly led the downside as we saw some profit taking coming in after a strong run. Also, a pivot in interest rate also could start slowing the movement of bank shares as their future net interest margin would likely be slower. Looking for more downside for the week to about the 20ema and then planning what’s next. The Electronic stock on the other hand saw some life as a slow down in interest rate sparks new life into these Electronic stocks.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 27th nov 2022

The Hang Seng Index also moved as we planned, coming down to our downside target of 17320 and currently being supported by it. A break below this level could see our next target of 16741 which would be a good level to scale in. It might not be a straight down for the week as the bulls are holding the line very well for now. The China central bank cuts the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year which might see a knee jerk reaction looking for a downside overall for the week to come.

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

 

The Week Ahead Nov 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

20th November, 2022, 4:06 PM

Week started out well but as we warned that markets are starting to be in the overbought state and so some profit taking would come in very soon. What spoilt the party was St Louis Fed’s president James Bullard coming out to say that interest hike might have to be as high as 7% which was something that market didn’t really want to hear. It saw an initial sell down but it wasn’t as bad as expected as market is starting to get used to such news. Nonetheless, some pullback is healthy as this would allow more to hope in for a further ride.

As news of more layoffs continue to hit the media, recession fears, high interest rate hikes will continue to dominate the media and probably cause more selling in the coming week. It’ll be a shorter week in the US as they are celebrate thanksgiving!

STI

STI moved up to our upside target and once again overshoot a little to about 3300. It was a red candle close, signifying some profit taking going on. As the market has moved up quite a bit, some profit taking is healthy in the overall bigger picutre. The first line of pullback is at around the 5ema at 3260. The next downside support would be 3220 area which is what we’re looking for. Going there would present some good opportunities. We can see our Straits Times Index a little target and with a shorter week in the US, we might see a bit more lackluster movement this week.

HSI

Bingo for the Hang Seng Index as it hit right where we mentioned of around 18360. We can see that the HSI has been consolidating for the last three days failing to break higher. We might see a pullback this week as the HSI closed below the 18k around number support. A pullback once again is healthy and the first level could be 17320 then 16740. This would present good opportunities to scale back into the HK market which recently have had so much positive vibe. Keeping a look out and don’t miss this opportunity!

Feel Free to drop us a message if you want to know more.

To know more about S&P500 & Nasdaq do head over to our facebook page to have a read.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin& Roy

The Week Ahead Oct 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

30th October, 2022, 2:48 PM

US markets had a good showing as expected. We have been giving updates about the potential rebound for the US and it has hit our initial target of 3850 for the S&P500. Despite the weakness in tech stocks due to earnings, we still saw S&P finishing the week up by over 3% a very nice rebound.

For this week, all eyes will be on Fed’s rate hike of 0.75% which is pretty much priced in BUT what market will be looking out for would be Fed’s willingness to slow the rate hike and or start cutting it back sooner than later. As market has rebound a fair bit, any aggressive speech by the Fed might send market down once again. But a friendlier and less aggressive stand by the Fed might give market more legs to move up. The PCE data released on Friday saw inflation at a high level but at least its not increasing at a fast pace.

As usual, taking some profit ahead of such key event is prudent. One shouldn’t be betting on either direction as this is pure gamble as to what the Fed might do. We rather wait and act accordingly.

STI

Straits Times Index 30th Oct 2022

As mentioned, not shorting for the STI as its already quite depressed as we saw the Straits Times Index having some rebound. Banks were the main driver as UOB came out with better than expected results. In fact, the STI broke above the short term downtrend line signaling more upside in the coming week. Currently resisted at the 20ema, we might see the STI testing 3090 then 3124 very soon. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s meeting to also give direction.

HSI

No end in sight for selling in HK as Xi’s absolute’s power gave no confidence to the market. No relaxation on Covid zero policy gave rise to more selling. How long can China keep this up? Its hard to tell but with not much positive news flow coming out, our weightage on China has reduced and focusing more on US and Singapore. Until we see some positive news flow and an overall change in China’s stand, every bounce is a short!

US is getting exciting and you don’t want to miss out another potential rebound. So do head over to our facebook to check out our views and updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead July 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th July, 2022, 3:30 PM

Did you see what happen last week? CPI numbers were out and it was higher than expected coming in at 9.1% which sent the market down at the start BUT actually recovered during the week. US markets did show some resilience and ended up for the week. This is not reversal yet but does show that markets are temporary ignoring these data. US earnings are are also coming out with JP Morgan having a lower quarter while Citibank beating results. Its too early to tell now but we will want to watch for more earnings before making any conclusion. For now we can see that S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 has strong resistance at the 50ema.

HSI

Weakness spotted in HSI which is a good thing if you’re a longer term investor and have missed the first wave for the Hang Seng. It is approaching our 20k downside target. Increase in Covid cases, growth rate slowing caused the downside in HK last week. For this week we continue to look for opportunity for long term holders to take a position as HSI is coming close to the 20k mark. We’ll watch for a base to form if not our next support would be 19300.

 

STI

STI couldn’t break the resistance we drew and came off after that . Immediate support at 3089. STI still looks weak and mainly guided by the banks. If banks start to break their support, we might see STI test the low of 3040. STI continues to be in a range and our local market has been lackluster and there hasn’t been much happening. Opportunity lies in HK and US for now so focusing more on those markets.

Head over to our facebook for more updates on S&P500 and Nasdaq for the potential levels we are looking at.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

22nd May, 2022, 11:31 AM

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

What a  week for the markets! Very interesting set ups for each markets and there’s so much happening. China cutting interest rates and shanghai coming out of lockdown very soon. china government looking to support the tech sector and stop regulations, giving a boost to the tech sector. US inflation is looking to soften.  The S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory but managed to close above that. Could this be the start of a sustained rebound? Do remember to check out all our updates on our Facebook too!

STI

The bounce came in for STI as regional market tries to find their footing and ended up on a positive note for the week. STI currently near the horizontal resistance of around 3249 but we do think that its possible for more upside as the banks for building a base and might look to rebound in the coming week. Upside resistance at 3297 to cover that  mini gap.

HSI

HSI cautious moved up during the week and ended with a bang as China cuts their interest rates which gave the market a much need boost. It is now at the important downtrend resistance line. Its the third time testing this line and usually it takes about 4 times for a stronger break. But with news of a interest rate cut, this might help in the push up so we’re looking for a break and even a test of around 22390 level in the coming weeks. Remember this is more for short term trading. For Long term holders, if you have been following us then you probably might have a position in the HSI already. So continue to hold for that and wait for the bigger recovery to come.

Have a great trading week ahead!

And do go to our Facebook for Nasdaq and S&P 500 updates.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

16th May, 2022, 5:36 PM
The Week Ahead May 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another crazy week as inflation came in HOT but higher than april’s number. Although inflation slowed down but it didn’t slow down as much and market saw another slam dunk. Towards the end of the week, market saw some relief  but was still down for the week. Well, will be just be a dead cat bounce or the end of the correction? To be honest, no one knows but what matters most is your time frame. Whether you’re a trader or investor. And that will make a difference.

STI

As expected, STI pulled back last week but came off more than expected. Some support drawn on the chart and for now, the 5ema would act as a resistance now and would look for that to break above before any bullish move made. Looking for some rebound for the week as markets in the US are generally oversold. So some relief rally could potentially bring in some rally here.

HSI

HSI broke the 20k support as mentioned and head down to our first support. During the week, some news came out that china govt will be meeting the tech companies for discussion with regards to the crackdown. This helped market out as we saw a general rebound in tech stocks. HSI is currently above the 5ema but still below the downtrend line and the 20ema line in yellow. cautious bullish but not going in full size in terms of trading as HSI always comes down even after good news.

Head over to our face book page for analysis on S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th April, 2022, 4:18 PM

The Week Ahead April 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week as US market kicks off earning seasons. We have warned that markets are not of the woods yet as market are still trying to find their footing and have not gained any strong grounds yet.  BOA, J&J, TESLA and many more other companies will be reporting their first quarter results. This is key to see as it could set the tone for the year as companies grapple with supply side constraints and with a rising interest rate environment too. This might also lead to markets fluctuating as market takes some cue from earnings.  To find out more when are the other companies reporting results, you can head over HERE. 

STI

As mentioned last week, we expected more pullback for the STI and it has come true. STI has pulled back to 3340 level and we might see further pullback to 3300. This level might see more bargain hunting and we’ll be waiting. Don’t forget although the index might be down, individual stocks can still move up. Oil and coal related stocks are still moving up!

HSI

Weakness also flow into the Hong Kong markets as previously mentioned but with some trickle of good news where the Chinese government finally gave approval for some games. Not turning bullish unless we see more convincing signs, like staying above the downtrend lines. Our downside target remains at around 20000.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy