Month: October 2020

Medtecs – [ Let’s Analyze What Happened Today, Did You Get Trapped ? ]

Kelwin & Roy Medtecs ,
14th October, 2020, 6:37 PM

Medtecs – [ Let’s Analyze What Happened Today, Did You Get Trapped ? ]Medtecs 14th Oct 2020

Chart Source: Poemsview 14th Oct 2020

Medtecs released a blockbuster results last night which made a lot of traders excited awaiting the opening this morning.  Net profit was up 111,466% which might make everyone rush in this morning. True enough retailers tried to join in the ride in the morning which looks promising until medtecs came close to the resistance of $1.60. From then, it got sold down rather quickly. Medtecs closed 8% down which might seem a little odd for such an impressive results?

Let’s analyze a little deeper and see what we can learn in order to avoid such a situation in future.

  1. Price ran before results. From the chart, we can see that medtecs started to run monday ahead of its results. Looks like a case of selling on results. Like buy on rumors and sell on news. It is understandable that traders were scared to miss out and wanted to get in at whatever price.
  2. Were traders expecting good results already? It is not much of a surprise that glove makers, PPE/mask makers would be reporting a good set of results.
  3. Take note of resistance too. Just because they reported a good set of results, it’s still important to watch out for resistance.

It is also always good to seek a second opinion if you’re unsure and we’re glad to share our two cents worth. We’re glad we didn’t chase this trade and shared with our clients regarding this trade. Also buying ahead of results is always a gamble as results could swing both ways and also if market had already priced in the expected good results. We don’t really advocate holding for results unless you are very aware of the risk.

Let’s look at Medtec from a technical perspective. It is still above the short term uptrend line, the resistance is around $1.60. First Support at the 5ema then $1.20 at the uptrend line which is also the 50ema.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

Frencken – [ What’s Our Next Target? $1.10 Possible? ]

Kelwin & Roy Frencken , , , , , , , , ,
14th October, 2020, 6:50 AM

Frencken – [ What’s Our Next Target? $1.10 Possible? ]Frencken 14th Oct 2020

 

Chart Source: Poemsview 14th oct 2020

Frencken has seen a nice upside in the recent week after it broke above its 20ema. We’re glad we managed to alert our EXCLUSIVE CLIENTS when it was trading at $0.98. It moved up after but didn’t move  as much as expected but as we waited our patience paid off.  A nice 10% upside in two weeks is good to us as we continue to value add to our clients.

So what’s next for frencken? Will it be able to hit $1.10? Using technical analysis $1.10 is within grasp but we would prefer to take some profits off the table as some pullback and consolidation might be possible before it gathers strength to test $1.10 and maybe even $1.14!

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See you onboard soon!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

Ascendas Reit – [ What Has It Broken Out From? ]

Kelwin & Roy Ascendas Reit , , , , , , , , , ,
13th October, 2020, 5:10 PM

Ascendas Reit – [ What Has It Broken Out From? ]

Ascendas Reit 13th Oct 2020

Chart Source: Poemsview 13th Oct 2020

Ascendas Reit is a business space and industrial reit which i’m sure many would have seen their spaces all over Singapore. It is also part of the STI component. The Singapore portfolio includes Business and Science parks, High specs industrial & Data Centres. In 2019  ,Ascendas REIT acquired 28 business park properties in three growing US tech-cities. High-specs industrial and data centres make up 17% of its portfolio; with ICT customers contributing 9%, and data centres contributing 5%, to its monthly gross revenue. Data centres like we mentioned in our previous post of Keppel DC Reit is a hot asset in the market. Though Asecndas Reit is not a direct play its good to have a mix of it.

It’s dividend yield is around 4.9% which is decent. So let’s look at it from a technical analysis perspective.

It has broken above its 20 and 50ema which is a positive sign. If you look back, these two moving averages as been acting as the resistance and finally today it managed to break above it. Volume came in too as we can see it’s higher than the last few days. These are positive signs to us.

We have drawn some of the support and resistance level and we might see $3.40 in the coming weeks.

Keep a close watch!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

Keppel DC Reit – [ What Are The Chances Of Testing Previous High? ]

Kelwin & Roy Keppel DC Reit , , , , , , , , , , ,
13th October, 2020, 7:07 AM

Keppel DC Reit – [ What Are The Chances Of Testing Previous High? ]Keppel DC Reit 13th Oct 2020

Poemsview : 13th Oct 2020

Keppel DC Reit is an unique asset class on its own and it’s the first pure-play data centre REIT listed in Asia on SGX.

Data centre has been a hot asset and keppel DC Reit has been a beneficiary of it.

From a dividend yield Keppel DC Reit isn’t that attractive of around 2.5% due to the vast increase in price but due to its strong name and financial standing it might be still worth looking at it.

From a technical point of view, it could be in a range with support being at $2.87and the upper limit at $3.07. It has stayed above the 20ema which is a positive sign. What would be good is that the volume could have been more which could indicate a sustained uptrend. Nonetheless, we think Keppel DC Reit stands a good chance to test $3.07 in the near future. It consolidated for the last two weeks and a push to $3.07 could be on the cards. Would prefer a swing for this counter.

Let’s keep a close watch!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

Capitaland Retail China Trust – [ Moved Up 6.5% After Our Post, Still Worth Looking At It? ]

Kelwin & Roy CapitaR China Tr , , , , , , , , ,
12th October, 2020, 7:00 AM

Capitaland Retail China Trust – [ Moved Up 6.5% After Our Post, Still Worth Looking At It? ] CapitaR China Tr 12th Oct 2020

Chart Source : Poemsview 12th Oct 2020

If you read our blog just last friday we mentioned CaptaR China Tr was a stock that we’re looking at given their new investment strategy and a good dividend yield with a strong sponsor.

Well, just within the day it shot up over 6.5% to reach a day high of $1.28 from the previous day close of $1.20. It’s pretty impressive if you ask us, given that its a reit and we wouldn’t expect to see such a spike up.

So some have been asking, can still buy?? Fundamentally nothing changed overnight and the company is still on track with their expansion so let’s take a look of it from a technical perspective.

CapitaR China Tr has broken out of its downtrend line with a healthy volume and is moving away from that. If you missed this breakout then maybe for a retracement might be an idea. A good retracement might be the test of $1.20 where one can look for some entry again.

There could be more upside room for CapitaR China Tr and you got to ask yourself if you’re comfortable with chasing the stock now.We have drawn the resistance

Our upside target are drawn on the chart and we’re intending for this is to a midterm trade rather than a short term trade.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Capitaland Retail China Trust – [ Expansion Of Investment Strategy, Worth Looking At It?]

Kelwin & Roy CapitaR China Tr , , , , , , , , ,
9th October, 2020, 7:00 AM

Capitaland Retail China Trust – [ Expansion Of Investment Strategy, Worth Looking At It?]

Image: CapitaR China Tr presentation slides

Capitaland Retail China Trust or CapitaR China Tr for short is the first and largest China-focused Reit listed in Singapore. They have recently announced an expansion of investment strategy which is turning some heads.

Just a snapshot of what they’ll be doing, they’ll be looking into its investment strategy beyond the retail sector to include office and industrial assets (including business parks, logistics facilities, data centres and integrated developments.) With key focus on long term growth, diversification, resilience, sustainability and returns.

This also shifts its focus from a pure retail play to a more diversified China growth story and might be more attractive for investors, given retail is on a decline and online shopping is gaining strong momentum.

Furthermore data centre are a unique asset and moving into this class of asset is in the right step.

An insert from CapitaR China Tr’s presentation.

More of the presentation slides can be viewed HERE

Let’s take a look at the chart and look at it from a technical analysis perspective.

Chart Source: Poemsview 9th Oct 2020

CapitaR China Tr has actually broken out of its long term downtrend line with one of the biggest volume for the year. It has also broken above its horizontal resistance of $1.19. These are positive technical points for an entry.

It has been consolidating for about two months and so some upside might be expected. We have drawn the resistance levels and a good support should be around $1.10

Our concluding thoughts :

1. Its operating metrics turned positive in Aug and with recovery in sight, we might see more upside

2. Potential addressable pipeline close to $33bn  (from its sponsor CapitaLand)

3. Dividend yield of about 6% which is very decent in today’s market

4. Worth a look for your investment/dividend portfolio with a structured approach in scaling in.

Do contact us if you’ll like to know more!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&roy

 

Capitaland – [ Rebounding Off The Bottom, How Far More Can It Go? ]

Kelwin & Roy Capitaland , , , , , , , , , , ,
6th October, 2020, 3:45 PM

Capitaland – [ Rebounding Off The Bottom, How Far More Can It Go? ]Capitaland 6th oct 2020

 

Chart Source: Poemsview 6th Oct 2020

Capitaland part of the STI component stock had a nice rebound ever since we mentioned about its base building just last week. It has reached our target of $2.80 in less than a week and experienced some pullback after hitting the resistance. Property counters are generally lagging behind but with strong sales, could these counters start to pick up?

Using technical analysis, for now 2.80 shall be the resistance and if Capitaland can break that we might see it move higher to around $2.86-2.88 which is the 100ema and the horizontal resistance.

Don’t forget to follow us on Investingnote as we do post there frequently too.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&roy

Trump Makes History Again! Tested Positive For Covid!

Kelwin & Roy covid
2nd October, 2020, 5:48 PM

TGIF! Thank God its Friday or Trump Got It Finally? Well, the President of United State has done it again! Being tested positive for Covid! What a year it has been eh! Testing positive in such a time especially when elections are so near! And we thought things were crazy already this takes the cake. Ok jokes aside, let’s dwell a little more into this.

Messages have been coming in fast and furious and we thought we’ll just share some thought of Trump getting covid and some possible impact. Some even speculate that he’s faking it to gain sympathy vote??

First, let’s look at the line of presidential succession if anything were to happen to trump and he’s incapable of fulfilling his duties. The vice president (mike pence) is next in command then follow by the speaker of the house who is Nancy Pelosi which is a democrat. So things will be interesting here if pence also can’t perform his duties. After her then its the President pro tempore of the Senate. Market might probably head down if anything really serious happens to trump as a knee jerk effect.

Second, trump is already 74 years old and that’s a real concern. As we been told that the covid hits the elderly harder and they are the more vulnerable group. So far it seems mild and being detected early could increase the chance of recovery and hopefully it doesn’t deteriorate. With early detection, some drugs like remdseivir has shown effectiveness curing covid and making it less fatal. This weekend is crucial in seeing how trump’s health is and that might set the tone for next week. If it’s really mild and trump recovers then market might start to have some rebound.

Third, what happens if trump conditions turns and unable to run for elections? Will the elections be postponed? The power doesn’t lie with the President and it is an extremely complex scenario that requires congress. You can read more HERE.

Fourth, could trump get some sympathy vote? Doubt so, most of the americans have probably already decided who they want to vote for. In fact people are saying that its due to the lack of mask wearing that’s why he got it. So serves him right?

Fifth, it’s still early to say what will happen as the white house scramble to put in plans for what’s to happen next. Trump could still do virtual rallies if he’s well enough just like what Biden has been doing. Trump can still win this election of course given he recovers and not swing the other way.

As for markets, futures plunged over 500 points on news of Trump testing positive and has since recovered off the lows. We feel market might have overreacted for now but of course we got to see how serious his condition is and it cannot be taken lightly. If he gets well then market could resume its course. BUT if he turns the other way, market could really get volatile.

A simple analysis we have come up with. The first line of support would be the 50ema (3325) which its bouncing off currently. Next support is around the 100ema (3222) area which is also the uptrend line and if that can’t hold probably around 3176 for the next support. Upside if it can break that downtrend line might be 3481. Short term traders do be alert and nimble. Long term investors might want to look at good support to slowly scale in for strong stocks or wait till more clarity on trump’s condition

It’s been a wild week and we wish everyone a good  restful weekend before we do battle next week!

Do contact us if you want to have further discussion.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

US Markets And The Upcoming Election In Nov

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market
1st October, 2020, 6:24 PM

Image source: express.co.uk

As we all know by now that the US election is just about 5 weeks away and the heat is on as 3rd Nov draws closer.  As we all witnessed the president’s debate yesterday which turned out to be a  more of a bickering session where both people hurled insults and repeatedly interrupted each other. One would probably get very little out of yesterday’s debate other than some entertainment value.

At a point in time Mr Biden even called Mr Trump a “clown” and told him to “shut up” and Mr Trump questioned Biden’s intelligence. What a debate!

Issues like handling covid19, racism were hardly rationally debated as both kept on squabbling that the debate moderator had to intervene.

Market couldn’t get much out of the debate and futures started to sell down after that only to recover on news of stimulus.

For now polls show Mr Biden leading and Trump has probably has to take the rest of the debate seriously in order to swing votes to his side.

Now what can we expect from now till Nov? VOLATILITY! As the race to the white house is not conclusive yet, both parties stand a good chance to win. As such, market could swing during this period so do be aware. As Trump is pro market, pro business if he’s firmly in the lead, markets could favour that. On the other hand, if Biden is in the lead, market might not like it as they will have to adjust to a new president, new policies and more regulations.  Election news might overtake covid news for the time being as traders shift their focus for the time being.

-So for short term traders, do be nimble, adjust your expectations during this period. Don’t be greedy during this time or stay out when it’s too uncertain.  Gold could also be a trading idea as some might flock to there for safety.

-For longer term investors, take the chance to position yourself during the dip on strong companies with good fundamentals.  In the long run, market tends to move up. Index ETFs are good alternatives if single stock exposure is not your cup of tea.

So what happens if Donald Trump wins? 

  1. As trump favours deregulation, low interest rates environment, low tax rates so those industries like financials, traditional energy , military (Lockheed Martin) and healthcare like GSK and Pfizer might benefit.
  2. Sector to avoid would probably be some China tech that Trump has aimed. As there is uncertainty in Trump’s policy on the trade war and it might be better to avoid those companies with China exposure or manufacturing in China as these companies might suffer from the tariffs
  3. We might see some certainty in the markets as Trump is pro markets and always credits himself for how the market has performed. S&P has made an all time high despite Covid, got to give it to this man. Traders are also used to Trump’s way with the exception of an increased post election trade escalation and of course his famous tweets.

So what happens if Joe Biden wins? 

  1. As Biden is more for tax hikes, regulations or some even say anti-growth, this might take a hit to the markets. Plus the fact it’s a new President and markets dislike uncertainty.
  2.  Biden is also more for renewable , sustainable energy, infrastructure and manufacturing. He focus on environmental issues so companies related to clean/renewable energy like solar could benefit.
  3. Financials could be affected due to more regulations and tax  hikes.
  4. Although Biden’s trade war stance is not as erratic as Trump’s he had not committed to removing the tariffs.

It’ll be an interesting month leading up to the elections so stay tune as we update more on index in the coming days. Stay tune.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

Capitaland – [Base Forming? Bottoming? ]

Kelwin & Roy Capitaland , , , ,
1st October, 2020, 1:34 PM

Capitaland – [Base Forming? Bottoming? ]Capitaland 1st oct 2020

Chart Source: Poemsview 1st Oct 2020

Capitaland seems to have bottomed with a base forming around $2.65 level. The next level of support might be at $2.60. Property counters have been lagging and strong property sales figure have been seen in the last few months. Could property counters start their move up? And could it help to push the STI up as its part of the STI component?

Head over to our post on investing notes to know more. Watching Capitaland with interest.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy