Straits Times Index

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
20th February, 2022, 4:45 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Another volatile week for the US as Ukraine-Russia tension grew and markets pulled back on fear of war breaking out over there.  China continues to push new regulations with the latest on Friday  issuing guidance for online food delivery platforms to reduce service fees to help to lower operating costs for catering businesses.  This sent Meituan (3690.HK) down 15% . Singapore once again fair better than the West BUT it might be time to take a break from the weeks of gains. As we enter a new week, tensions of war along side with rising inflation will continue to haunt the markets. S&P 500 has also closed below its 200 days moving average, are we expecting more downside? Read on to find out more.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence (Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.)

Thursday – US GDP Q4, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories

Friday – Core Durable Goods Order (Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.)

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

As mentioned last week, its good for STI to have some pullback so that traders and investors can move in. A spinning top pattern like candlestick formed on Thursday and with Friday’s candle closing lower, we might see more downside this week. Some support levels we’re looking at, 3400 then 3368 first. Banks continue to hold the index up, although we have seen pockets of Blue Chip stocks moving up especially the recovery play ones like SATS, Comfort, SIA Eng and even Thaibev. We’re continuing to focus on these recovery stocks.

HSI 

Just as HSI was gaining some grounds, but China  has decided to enforce more regulations regarding online delivery to reduce their service fees to spur greater economic growth. That sent the HK markets into a dive sparking another round of sell off as investors worry of more regulatory crack down. Tencent, Alibaba, JD all took a hit and we’ll wait for a base to form once again to look for entry. HSI might see more downside to about 23647 before finding some support

S&P 500

The S&P 500 has closed below its 200 days moving average for 2 days straight. Its not a good sign and has to regain above this in the next 2-3 trading days if not be prepared for more downside. Overall, if S&P 500 tests the previous low, we’re only at about 12%  correction which is still possible for a further downside to even 15-18%. So hang on tight as markets grapple with the ever changing tune of Russia- Ukraine tension. Bracing for more downside. to 4290 first.

Nasdaq 100 

Nasdaq also is below the 200 moving average for the past week and is structurally weak which signals more downside. Tech stocks continue to struggle with ongoing concerns of more rate hike throughout the year. A pullback to 13448 wouldn’t be surprising as that would represent about 20% price correction.

Hang in tight if you’re invested into fundamentally good stocks with wide economic moat.

For traders, do stick to your stop loss and be disciplined especially during such times. Hedging is also a strategy to adopt for this year as we uncover the benefits and reasons for this strategy last week.

Have a fruitful week ahead.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , ,
6th February, 2022, 2:31 PM

The Week Ahead Feb 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

It was a choppy week over in US as the S&P 500 pulled itself out of the weekly 200SMA but saw a pullback during the week. Major companies reported their Q4 earning with Meta missing its earnings and giving a disappointing Q1 guidance. The 10 year yield curve also spiked up to 1.9% which caused some markets jitters. As Asia was on a longer break, most of the markets remained up despite the negative sentiments out there.

Key Events to Watch For 

Wednesday – Crude Oil Inventories.  The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claim

Friday – US Fed Monetary Policy Report. This is the fed reserve board submits written reports to Congress containing discussion he conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future.

This coming week there will be more earning results like Pfizer, Pepsico, Disney and tech firms such Twitter, are
Remember to refer to below link to see Earnings calendar of your favourite companies.

Take note of the 10 year yield curve too.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

We saw a push up for the STI after a short pullback  which is a bullish sign as it broke above the 3300 level. We might see it push higher during the coming weeks to 3350 level before another pullback occurs. Banks, travel stocks, E stocks are seeing rebound too. Stocks like Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries are shining too.

HSI 

It had one full day of trading last Friday but saw a huge catch up and closed up over 3%. Its considered a lot for an index to move 3% in a day. After a pullback, HSI has risen again and we might look for it to test the upside resistance of 25077 area and even 25404.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
30th January, 2022, 4:04 PM

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Crazy week with crazy volatility as the S&P swung from red to green and green to red. Many stop loss were hit along the way and it was probably a tough time for short term traders but for the long term investors, it was a golden opportunity to pick up quality stock at a bargain. The hawkish fed pushed market further down after its statement BUT once again markets looks like its holding up pretty well! Read on to find out our thoughts on the market.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – U.S ISM Manufacturing purchasing Managers Index

Wednesday – Crude Oil Inventories , ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

Thursday – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Friday – Nonfarm  Payrolls

There are many big earnings coming out this week like Alphabet, Starbucks, Meta so do take note of your companies which are releasing results this week.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Its going to be a relatively short week for Singapore market as she breaks for the Chinese New Year holidays.

Singapore market will be on half day on 31st Jan , closed on 1st and 2nd Feb and will be open on 3rd Feb (Thursday). Volumes are expected to be lesser as traders will probably take off and rest for the week.

STI has come down to our first level of support which we mentioned last week. Banks pulled back with the only exception of OCBC powering through the week playing catch up. We still waiting for further pullback before making any moves in Singapore. STI testing the 3200 support area might be a good chance to look at the Singapore markets again.

Sembcorp Industries has been holding up very well and the E- stocks are seeing a rebound after a hard slam down.

HSI

Hong Kong will have an even longer break. Opening on 31st Jan for half a day and will be closed all the way till Thursday (3rd Feb) and finally opening on 4th Feb. With just around one day of trading, markets could be softer and we’re looking. HSI came off together with the global negative sentiments and is currently sitting on the short term uptrend line. We’re expecting a bit more pullback before a rebound comes. We’re still bullish on HSI.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently trying to find a base and its been a good opportunity for investors to scale in to quality companies. Not sure of what companies to look out for? Just drop us a message.

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , ,
23rd January, 2022, 4:17 PM

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

The Nasdaq 100 is in correction territory falling over 13% while the S&P 500 pull backed over 8%. BUT, if you noticed something, both HSI and STI didn’t fall! Are we starting to see something interesting here? Is this the start of some value surfacing from the Hong Kong market? Read on!

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday – FED MEETING

Wednesday – FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claim

The Federal Reserve’s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday is the big event for markets in the week ahead, with investors hoping for more guidance on the central bank’s plan to raise interest rates. Markets have been lackluster and awaiting further direction from the Fed.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

STI remaining resilient even though there was a sell down over in US. Banks ,commodity and energy stocks gave a helping hand to support the index. We are now very close to the 3300 psychological resistance and we would prefer some pullback first before making a move. A pullback to that uptrend line is healthy to us.  Electronic stock in Singapore saw a pullback due to interest rate concerns as investors took profit off the table first. There might be more downside for this sector. So holding back first.

HSI

Another index that showed resilience is the HSI! China cut its lending rates this week while US is looking to increase its interest rates. Could the Hong Kong and China market outperform US this year? We covered that in our webinar last week! We are hopeful! The HSI managed to regain footing above the uptrend support turn resistance line and even close above the 5ema. There are very positive signs and even on the backdrop of Xi Jinping no mercy in corruption and monopoly crackdown in the later part of the week. More upside might be seen to 25400 levels but of course markets are still looking to fed meeting before making major moves. Keep a watch!

For more analysis on the US market and where it might head to, you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
16th January, 2022, 4:55 PM

The Week Ahead Jan 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Red hot inflation numbers and fed’s hawkish stance continue to worry markets in US. Despite that, markets in Asia performed better with STI performing very well and hitting our upside targets. Investors came out of growth and tech stock and seek safer more stable asset.

Key Events to Watch For 

Monday – China GDP

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Great showing by STI but manly driven by the three local bank as their combine weightage is close to 50%. STI has exceeded our weekly upside target and a pullback is healthy so that investors who missed this ride can hop on soon. Next upside resistance at 3283-3295 which is close to the 3300 psychological barrier. A pullback to around is healthy for the markets.

HSI

As mentioned last week, don’t give up on the HSI yet, although it was one of the worst performing index, we might see a rebound in HSI this year.

It saw a nice move for last week and came close to our upside target of 24600. It tested the 5ema and closed above it on Friday which is a positive sign for us. We’re looking at more upside before HSI takes a break as with any markets, it doesn’t go up in a straight line.

For more analysis on the US market , you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , ,
2nd January, 2022, 4:21 PM

The Week Ahead 2022 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Bye bye 2021 and hello 2022! S&P finished well for the year with nearly 27% gain ?as it closed near record high! It has been a good year for the markets and we hope that you managed to benefit from it too! Going into 2022 we might not see such gains but none the less we’re here to navigate through the times with you! Rising inflation, fed tapering, increasing interest rates and Omicron are some issues markets will have to deal with coming this year.

Key Events to Watch For 

Tuesday -Wednesday – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims , ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Friday – Nonfarm payrolls, Unemployment rate

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

STI had a decent gain for the year of around 9% not too bad given STI’s reputation. Well, at least it out performed HSI and didn’t get mentioned as the worst performing index. So something to be thankful for!

As we head into the new year, there is some growing optimism for Singapore as we are recovering from Covid-19 and trying to open up as much. With VTLs currently being suspended, it will take awhile before we turn the corner again. Also, Singapore is bracing for more omicron cases which might delay some progress in this area.

From the technical point of view, STI closed just at the 20ema but we would want to see a nicer closing candle for more upside to happen. With that our next upside target is around 3168. Electronic stocks are showing signs of rebound. Stocks like ISDN, UMS, AEM are currently in play.

HSI

One of the worst performing index is the HSI. It started off well but ended the year down close to 13%. It is still below our uptrend line but it did hit the long term uptrend line over HERE. It is still below the 20ema and unless it can break above that then we might see a nice rebound for the start of the year. A rush of short covering and bargain hunting probably caused a nice bump up towards the end of the week.

Upside resistance of 24000 is our first target.

For more analysis on the US market , you can click HERE!

Have a good week ahead!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead (8) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
21st November, 2021, 11:55 PM

The Week Ahead (8) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Once again, Electronic stocks, chip makers took center stage as these saw a very nice move up for the whole of last week. And we’re glad to have caught them like MU, AEM, UMS.

Penny stocks are also starting to fire up , so if you’re into penny trading then get ready. BUT do remember to have your proper stops in place as we all know how volatile pennies can be.

Another major event was Alibaba’s results which resulted in a huge sell down while JD enjoyed  nice rally after its results. What an exciting week it was. So now lets look ahead!

Recap for STI & HSI 

STI was flattish this week with DBS pushing to and of course our Electronic stocks, AEM, UMS, ISDN and Nanofilm pushing higher. The rest of the market was actually sluggish and very range bound.

Over in Hong Kong, JD saw a nice rally after its results and breaking above its resistance. Whereas Alibaba took a beating BUT this might present some good opportunity for those who don’t have Alibaba in their portfolio.

Markets were rough in HK after its initial move up which then saw a bigger drop towards the end of the week.

Key Events to Watch For 

The White House said last week that President Joe Biden will likely decide before Thanksgiving whether to keep incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell in place for another term or promote current Fed Governor Lael Brainard to the position.

Analysts expect some stock market volatility around the announcement, particularly if Brainard is chosen.

Brainard is seen as more dovish than powell and could consider the timing for further rate hikes.

Monday – Existing Home Sales

Wednesday – Core Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and crude oil inventories

FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday & Friday are off for the US market due to thanksgiving

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week 

STI

Chart Source: Poemsview 21st nov2021

STI getting in a sideways consolidation but be alert for any move up or down as this might set the direction for the next coming weeks. A downside could be seen till the 40ema whereas the upside might break above that previous high. We still prefer to see individual stock at this juncture as the STI looks undecided for the moment. It is flirting with the 20ema and only with a stronger close and rebound above it then will we be more convicted of an upmove.

HSI

HSI had  a rebound but like STI it could not sustain the rally. A new downtrend resistance can be seen and a new short term uptrend line for the HSI has also been established. HSI could start trading within this range before a more decisive move. If that uptrend breaks we might see more downside to 23,800.

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

 

The Week Ahead (7) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , , ,
14th November, 2021, 4:36 PM

We’re into the middle of Nov and we saw some pullback in the overall market BUT a certain sector stood out in our market! Electronic stocks which we mentioned in our previous  THE WEEK AHEAD post to look out for saw a nice push ahead after AEM’s results sending it to its all time high. Frencken also a boost after its results.

Recap for STI & HSI 

Banks pushed higher last week only with OCBC lagging behind. Once again it wasn’t a broad base rally  and being selective on certain sectors is key. Electronic stock was a sector that we were watching and since then it has started moving. We might see the laggards for this sector to start moving as some spillover effect takes place. SPH was gapping up due to bidding wars which saw its price moved up about 10% for the week. Energy sector is currently taking a breather.

Over in Hong Kong, things are heating up as support was tested and held and we saw a general rebound in HK stocks bringing some much needed rally in the sluggish market. Tech stock saw a good rebound and Xiaomi is a stock that is on our watchlist.

Key Events to Watch For 

  1. Core Retail Sales on Tuesday
  2. Building Permits  in the US to see how the housing market is doing , Crude oil inventories to see how demand for oil and economy activity is. Take note for oil related stocks.  All these are happening on Wednesday.
  3. We have jobless claims on Thursday to see how employment is.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week 

STI

STI broke below thee uptrend line that has been supporting it and has pushed down to the 20ema also coinciding with our horizontal  support level. We haven’t been that bullish in the STI for the past weeks as most of the underlying components were not really moving. Some bounce came as the 20ema held it up but we’re not very bullish yet and might want to wait for clearer signs. Continue being selective as we can see that Electronic sector is reaping rewards. The bearish candle on friday might signal more downside and with a better base formed then will we have more conviction on the STI.

HSI

And there you have it, HSI being the beast of the east saw a very nice rebound off our support line. It came off with a hammer last Wednesday and crossing above our downtrend line and reaching our next level of resistance of around 25520 which is the uptrend resistance line. HSI does look like its gathering strength to break that resistance and charge towards the next resistance of 26240 area. Looking out for beaten down HK stocks!

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead (6) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
7th November, 2021, 4:42 PM

What a week it has been for the markets especially for the US side. Indices pushing to new highs but once again, not much love shown over in Asia.

Fed’s decision was key to market movement last week as previously highlighted as all eyes were on Chairman powell to deliver what the market wanted. For the most part, the Fed announcement came in as expected with plans to taper by reducing its bond purchases by $15 billion per month for November and December. This would end the Fed’s stimulus efforts by  about June of 2022. However, the Fed did say it would be flexible in that it could speed up or slow down the purchases as needed. ALSO, he decided to focus on tapering rather than mentioning much about interest rate in his  post-announcement press conference. Smart move there. Markets cheered the decisions and made new highs after.

Recap for STI & HSI 

For the STI, we did see some renewed strength in the banks as the three local banks posted good results thus bringing the index higher. But we didn’t see a broad base rally as only very selective stocks were pushing up the index like Jardine. We also saw a rebound in our electronic stocks as previously mentioned but results releasing could decide the fate of their movement.

Over at Hong Kong, some what same story as HSI continued to be resisted by the resistance we drew. But it came very close to our next support. Big tech in HK saw a mixed bag with no clear directions while the auto makers had some rebound.  We’re looking at HSI to form some support before taking any decisive actions.

Key Events to Watch For 

Singapore bank earnings are out, so we’ll continue to monitor our E stocks for their results. Do also take note of the earnings for the stocks that you’re looking at especially if you’re intending to take position in it.

A little of the same stuff like PPI on tuesday and Core CPI and Initial jobless claim on Wednesday are some of the key events.

Major earnings like Alibaba, Paypal on Monday and Tencent (ADR) on Wednesday. Do check out the earnings calendar over HERE to see when your company is reporting.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week 

STI

STI has been bouncing off that uptrend support line that we’ve been drawing. As banks reported their results, that gradually pushed the index up above our 3234 resistance. Now staying above this might see if push further to 3280 level which is back in Jan 2020! The underlying stocks of STI has been rather weak without much following through so do be very selective in your stock selection and take profit fast before profit taking sets in.

SATS, E stocks are still some of the stocks that we are looking at.

HSI

Performing worse than our STI , HSI has been pulling back ever since hitting our resistance. It has now reached near our support of around 24667 and if we could see this hold then a good chance for some rebound might be on the cards.  There is  downtrend resistance line and the horizontal resistance of 25077 to overcome and if HSI manages to break this level then we might see a good rebound coming in. Tech stocks are on our list together with auto makers like Geely and BYD Co. Li Ning is also another stock on our watchlist.

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

The Week Ahead (4) – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Straits times index , , ,
24th October, 2021, 10:00 PM


Good Morning and its the last week of October! How time flies some might say! Its about slight more than 2 more months before we end the year so make full use of what this year has to bring!

We know many people are sian about the recent covid restrictions, lets keep our heads up and spread positive vibes as much as possible! Encourage one another, call in a friend to see how he or she is doing! Keep the spirits up!

Recap for STI & HSI 

For our local market, STI touched our 3200 resistance up  rebounding about 3% since breaking our trendline just two weeks ago. Positive sentiments from the US continued to pour over which helped push our market up. Penny stocks saw another round of movement, so for those who likes to play penny stocks, the past week was probably a good one for you. Sembcorp Industries also saw some action this week.

Over at Hong Kong side it has also reached our resistance of around 26222 area with continual rebound from the tech and EV sectors. Evergrande paid out its bond coupon last week, buying it time to wrestle with a debt crisis looming over the world’s second biggest economy. It also resumed work on more than 10 of its property projects. Some good news but do be cautious especially for traders as HK market has rebound off the lows and some pullback might be seen soon.

Key Events to Watch For 

  1. Big Tech earnings! Four out of the five FAANG stocks are set to report earnings during the week – Facebook. This could set the tone for tech stocks.
  2. U.S. GDP .Data on Thursday is expected to show the extent of the headwinds that hit the U.S. economy in the third quarter. Economists are forecasting that GDP growth slowed to 2.8% from 6.7% in the previous three months. Other data to look out for would be initial jobs claims on thursday and friday’s core PCE price index.
  3. Continual monitoring of the 10 year yield. Its at the highest for the month of Oct and given Nasdaq is coming close to its ATH and S&P breaking its ATH, markets might slow down a little.

Technical Levels to Watch For This Week

STI

Chart Source: AdvisorXs 24th Oct 2021

STI continues to power through the week hitting to the round number resistance of 3200 and close slightly below it for the week. It actually rebound off the 5ema which shows some strength. The momentum does looks like its slowing down and with an month of an extension of covid regulations, markets might have some mini reactions to it. It STI manages to hold above the 5ema we might see near term upside resistance to 3230 area where more profit taking might come in. For traders, we might not want to be over aggressive as markets in US are also near or at all time high. So some pullback is not too much to expect.

HSI

HSI has also seen strength rebounding to our upside resistance of 26222. It is currently hovering near this resistance and a break above this might it move to 26834 area. Profit taking might soon come in too as market has rebound for about 2 weeks plus. Keep a look out! EV stocks like geely and BYD has seen a nice move up together with the usual tech suspects. Most tech stocks also are seeing some profit taking as they have rebound for the last few weeks too. Looking for it to stabilize before planning a move again.

Trade safe and remember to have a sound trade plan!

To know more about the outlook for S&P and Nasdaq, just CLICK HERE!

Have a good week ahead! Drop us a message if you want to discuss further!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy