Stock Market

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , ,
16th July, 2023, 10:35 PM

Another week up for markets as we saw the HK market came to life after Ant’s crackdown has ended. US markets also performed well after inflation data came in softer than expected. Overall, positive sentiments continue to flow and many of our HK and SG selections are all giving us good returns.

For this week, there are three key events to look out for.

  1. Its Earnings time. Second quarter earnings season gets underway as major banks started reporting last week. Expectations are low going into earnings and with earning beat we might see market moving up. Tesla will be one of the Mag 7 reporting its results on Wed! Head over here to look out for your company that are reporting. Remember, if you’re holding great companies for the long term then going into earnings wouldn’t be too much of a concern. BUT for those trading short term, holding over results is always a risky plan and its not something we would like to do.
  2. China economic data. China’s GDP Data will be coming out on Monday and any slow down might give rise to hopes of a stimulus from the Chinese govt. Gross domestic product is expected to have grown by an annualized 7.3% in the three months to June, compared with growth of 4.5% in the first quarter. Industrial production will also be out.
  3. US core retail sales (MOM) expecting a rise in that from 0.1 to 0.3%

We did see some profit taking coming in on Friday which is perfectly normal given such a strong run.

STI

As mentioned last week, we were expecting a rebound for the Straits Times Index and rebound it came! Pleasantly surprised with the strength as we saw banks being scooped up after being smashed down. We can see that STI being resisted by that downtrend line. We do think that the market might break it and test the 3300 resistance level. Many blue chip stocks are seeing a nice rebound for last week. SATS, SGX, Capitalland invest are all doing well. Special mention for Seatrium which saw a 18% move just for the week. Glad we caught this move too!

HSI

Hang Seng Index 16th Jul 2023

Short covering and bargain hunting stay the tone for last week as we saw the hang seng index roaring back. Tech stocks like baidu, tencent and ALIBABA all saw nice returns for the week. During such run, using DLCs could potentially upsize your profits! For this week, momentum could still carry on and we could be looking to test the 20k mark once again. There is heavy resistance there and it needs to build a base before taking it out. China data could provide some boost too. Don’t miss out on this rally and we hope you got in for some long term positions on the hong kong market.

Head over to our facebook for more updates and levels to look out for for the S&P500 and Nasdaq100.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
9th July, 2023, 3:21 PM

S&P500 ended the week down of about 1.2%. Why are we excited as in the picture you might ask. Well, as we been bullish for the year and do want to add more positions into the market so of course when the market is down we are excited. =) Are you too?

Greed & Fear index still at the extreme greed currently at 78 we are waiting for it to drop further before making an entry.

For this week, with Alibaba giving a boost to the HK market as China ends Ant’s Group regulatory revamp, this might raise hope of China ending it regulatory tightening on big tech. So we could see the upside coming in for HK.

Over in the US, earnings season is starting. With major banks reporting this Friday like Citibank, JP Morgan and Blackrock, this could bring the markets into some volatility. Keeping a lookout especially for the MAG 7 stocks which is a barometer of the economy.

STI

Chart Source: DZH International 9th July 2023

Our Straits Times Index dropped below our uptrend support line as banks and blue chips pulled back especially Sembcorp and Keppel Crop as they were the front runners for the STI for the past few months. Pullback is timely so that those who missed the rally can finally get in. But of course the time to re-entry is not yet. At least for us. We’ll be waiting for a base to form for Sembcorp Industries before deciding an entry. If you want to be informed of our next entry, ensure you’re in our telegram channel to receive all the latest updates and alerts.

STI could see a rebound this week as its coming close to the 3100 level. SATS looking strong despite the weak week.

HSI

Chart Source: DZH International 9th July 2023

HSI once again imploded over the week BUT saw some light at the end of the tunnel as China ends it crack down on Ant group. This could be a good sign for the overall market and even better for Alibaba’s shareholders. HSI looking like a double bottom forming around the 18k level which is crucial. HSI has to stay above this level although a crack and rebound is one of the option to wash out weak hands.  We could see HSI having some bargain hunting this week.

Currently market is looking for more stimulus as China badly needs a boost to their slowing economy. With this pullback, remember of your proper allocation into the markets. We are positive for HK but the proper allocation into the different markets matters too. Are you too heavy into the HK market? Need help in re-balancing? Let us know. We could shed some light.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about our views on the US markets. IS IT TIME TO BUY?

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead June 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
25th June, 2023, 10:55 PM

US STOCKS closed lower on Friday (Jun 23), capping a week dominated by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony. With few market-moving catalysts this week aside from Powell’s congressional testimony, all three indexes notched weekly losses, ending a weeks-long rally.

The Nasdaq snapped its eight week winning streak while S&P 500 broke its five-week rally. Is this the start of more downside? In our view we do think so given such a strong rally, a pullback is not too much to ask for right? Especially for those who missed out on this rally, this could be an opportunity to scale into the markets.

3 key events to look out for this week, the first being Fed’s speech on Wed, second is China’s PMI data on Thursday and lastly Fed’s preferred inflation data which is the PCE. As inflation is still above 2%, Fed is still trying to bring it down and is now looking at another two more rate hikes for the year. Friday’s data could give an insight to what Fed might do for the July’s meeting. Do head over to our Facebook page to find out more about the key levels to watch out for this week for the US markets.

STI

Straits Times Index 25th June 2023

Chart Source: DZH Internatioanl Advisor 25th June 2023

Following global sentiments, the straits times index also saw a pullback for the week as blue chip stocks like sembcorp industries, keppel corp and SIA all finally saw profit taking. Banks initially led some rebound as a higher rate environment could continue to lead to higher profitability for them.

Our Straits Times Index is currently at its immediate support of around 3186. It does look like there might be more downside to it which we might even see 3123 as the downside target. If the index reaches there, we do see good opportunities to enter the market.

HSI

Hong Kong Index 25th June 2023

Chart Source: DZH Internatioanl Advisor 25th June 2023

After a very steep rebound on expectations of rate cuts and stimulus from China’s government , HSI saw a sharp pullback. A pullback to 18522 level is possible for the week. PMI data coming out on Friday might help spur the govt to do more stimulus if data comes below expectations so that’s something to look at for the week.

Meanwhile, some more downside might be expected before a rebound. 18522 level first then a test of the recent low of around 18000 should give some firm rebound.

To find out more about the US markets don’t forget to head over to our Facebook page.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead June 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI, Stock Market , , ,
11th June, 2023, 9:51 PM

Another good week for the US markets as it notches fourth straight positive week climbing on a wall of fear. US market continues to ride on the AI theme although there are signs of slowing momentum as stocks have ran up quite a bit already.

 

The greed & fear index has entered the extreme greed zone which indicates the sentiments are much better now and traders are willing to go risk on. We are a little contrarian when it comes to this, being extreme greed might not be too good for the short term as traders start to pile in to the market. We have been giving advanced cue since may for a potential upswing which has happened and now market seems a little high and we prefer a pullback before entering. Not chasing the markets for now.

For this week , CPI and Fed meeting will be the key events to look out for. Market participants are expecting fed to keep rates and not increase it. 30% are seeing a raise. So if Fed does raise the rates, we might see a pullback from the markets.

STI

Straits Times Index 11th June 2023

Chartsource: DZH Advisor 11th June 2023

STI still a little lackluster, with a few stocks standing out from the rest. Sembcorp industries and SIA are two that are shinning brightly.

For this week, we might see some rebound from Keppel Corp, Capitaland Invest and SATS.  STI could move up to test 3200 then 3225. STI could also wait and see if Fed pauses rate this coming week which might actually not be too good for the banks as it would mean that interest rate hike has peaked and banks moving forward might not see such high net interest margins already.

HSI

Heng Seng Index 11th June 2023

Chartsource: DZH Advisor 11th June 2023

HSI is a lot more exciting and active than the other regional markets as we are seeing a strong rebound ever since HSI went into a bear market. This rebound has caught the shortist hence seeing a fiercer rebound. Many are speculating a stimulus from China’s government to spur the markets. Do be careful as it could be a sell on news kind of situation as markets are rebounding on such expectations.

For this week, we might continue to see rebound to 19600 then 20k Strong resistance around the 20k mark where HSI should take a break. We hope you took the chance to load up on some good shares like Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent. Another exciting week ahead.

Head over to our Facebook page to learn more about how Nasdaq and S&P500 might perform this week.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead June 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
4th June, 2023, 10:44 PM

Another great week out for the US markets as Nasdaq and S&P pushed up higher. Well it is good for everyone who is on long, for those who missed the rally its really a pity. So if we do get any pullback in June, it could present a good opportunity for those who missed out thinking its a BEAR BEAR BEAR! June is seasonally a weaker month BUT during the 3rd year of the presidential month, June might still be alright. We’re still hoping for a pullback which could then allow some entry.

S&P500 pushed ahead past the 4200, 4300 looks possible on the cards which could be reached within this week. We won’t be chasing this market and would prefer to wait for a pullback first.

STI

Chart Source: DZH international AdvisorXs 4th June 2023

STI saw a rebound during the week but got resisted by the 20ema. After the initial rebound, the momentum is losing steam and is picking up by HSI rebound. STI could see positive momentum flowing and try once for another rebound. SATS looks like it might have more downside to $2.35 which will present a good rebound opportunity there. Overall, we’re looking for an upside this week to test the 20ema once again.

HSI

Chart Source: DZH international AdvisorXs 4th June 2023

HSI FINALLY saw a rebound after weeks of selling. Data coming below expectations caused selling through the week and as media started blasting that HSI is in the bear market, that’s when the market turns around and bite you. Better retail sales and caixin data helped market make that 4% rebound last friday. Rebound might continue on this week with the 20ema at 19200 as the first resistance. After weeks of selling, our clients were the first to be informed on Thursday about a potential rebound in play which came as a 4% rebound which wiped out the shortist. Want to be the first to be informed and not miss out. Join us to be the first to be informed of such potential move.

Head over to our facebook to find out more about the Nasdaq and S&P500 movement this week.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

Buy In May And Sell In June?

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market
1st June, 2023, 9:56 AM

Buy in May and Sell In June??

The aged old saying of sell and go away in may didn’t materialize once again. Nasdaq was up 8% helped by our stock pick NVIDIA while S&P was up 0.5%

So now as we step into June, could we finally see the selling take place? As we shared in our webinar, June is seasonally a weaker month as its the summer holidays and traders take a break.

After a good month in may, some selling in June is not too much to expect.

A pullback could present us with opportunity especially for those who missed the boat. Keeping a close watch.

Missed the BULL RUN so far? Want to restructure your portfolio but don’t know how?

Simply reach out and we’ll help you through this. Are you able to afford to miss out the next run up?

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead May 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market, Straits times index , , , ,
21st May, 2023, 4:35 PM

Fist bumps all round as US markets push higher with Nasdaq even breaking above Aug2022 high! We’ve been bullish on the US markets and have been giving regular updates so hopefully you caught this break!  Big tech led the gain as traders/investors are becoming more optimistic about a rate pause. What will happen to the market with a rate pause? Will market trend up or down? We’ll be answering that in our upcoming webinar at the end of May. So register HERE if you want to find out what will happen.

The Greed and Fear index is starting to creep up towards the extreme greed area which is good if you’re on the LONG side. When it goes into the extreme greed that’s when we need to be alert as market might start being too bullish.

For this week, take note of Fed’s statement on Wednesday ( thursday morning local time) to get a confirmation if you’re going for a rate pause!

STI

Straits Times Index 21st May 2023

STI came down to our target support before launching a rebound. Short term resistance at 3200 which was the previous support. STI could look to break past this and stage a rebound to around 3260 levels. Banks are also due for a rebound after falling for over 2 weeks. Blue chip stocks like Capitaland Invest, Venture also could see further rebound into the week. =)

HSI

Hang Seng Index 21st May 2023

HSI once again the wild beast of the east saw wide swings during the week. It is now in a sideway consolidation. Results from big tech stocks like Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba were a little mixed. Some did better than expected while some came below expectation. Data coming out from China were also not as expected hence some selling came in. G7 summit also added strain as world leaders were looking to clamp down on China’s growing power.

With that on the backdrop, we might see weakness in the HSI a test of 19000. We need to see 19k hold before we can start  to see another rebound.  A rebound back to 20k could be on the cards very soon and we’re watching closely for that. Moving averages are already sloping down so more downside might be seen.

Head over to our Facebook to know more about our view on S&P500 and the strongest index for now Nasdaq100.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead May 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market, Straits times index , , ,
1st May, 2023, 10:37 PM

Did you know that the S&P500 ended April up close to 2% further adding to April being a positive month for the markets.

Now as we enter May. What is ahead of us? Firstly, Fed will be meeting on 2nd and 3rd May deciding if they will raise interest rates once again.

Secondly, the famous saying sell and go away in may! Will this self fulfilling prophecy happen?

Taking a quick look for the past 10 years S&P 500 was up 90% of the time but if we were to look back from 2008-2013, S&P500 actually fell 4/5 times or 80%. As such sell and go away in May ending in a negative region was about 33% for the past 15 years.

So for May, selling and going away in May might not hold true. The upside could surprise also depending on what Fed says.

STI

Straits Times Index 1st May 2023

Chart source: DZH International Advisor 1st May 2023

The moving averages are sloping down for the STI with the 5ema acting as the resistance. For this week we might see more downside for the index. It might try to move up test around 3295 and head back down. A break of 3267 could see it pullback to 3220. At that level, we probably see more entry as the index would look more attractive then. Banks are the main driver and we are seeing weakness in it that could drive the index down. Individual stocks are actually fairing pretty well despite the negative sentiments.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 1st May 2023

Chart source: DZH International Advisor 1st May 2023

HSI a little different from STI. We might see more upside for the week. The 20ema acted as the resistance which could see a bit of pullback first before accelerating upwards. We could wee about 20500-20600 for the end of the week as HSI is starting to form a base.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about view on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , , ,
26th March, 2023, 9:47 PM

The Fed has risen interest rates by 0.25% and further mention that one more rate hike for the year is on the cards and probably no rate cute. With that market volatility set in but as the week came to a close, markets started settling down. Now with fed decision out of the way. What will market be looking forward to and how will the market perform for the week?

Traders will be hoping for some form of stability to return to markets roiled by bank failures in the coming week as they weigh the ongoing fallout from the forced UBS-Credit Suisse tie-up. Upcoming Core PCE Date which is the Fed preferred data could bring some volatility towards the end of the week.

China’s PMI data on Friday will be closely watched as market watchers try to gauge the strength of the recovery in the world’s second largest economy in the wake of the lifting of pandemic restrictions.

Now let’s take a look on the technical front for the various markets.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 considered strong as its above the 200ema and what’s interesting is that the 50ema is looking to cross the 200ema. A bullish sign if this happens! Nasdaq remains stronger as traders switch from banking stocks to tech stock and pile in on tech stocks as the 10 year fell. Also, traders look to move in on the recent hot theme on artificial intelligence.  For the week ahead, the key resistance that Nasdaq has to take out would be around 12913. Market has tested that area recently but haven’t been able to break it. As April draws near, a seasonally better month we could see market gathering pace if this banking crisis don’t fallout further. Looking for a bullish break through for the week.

A break below 12373 would be a short term bearish signal for the Nasdaq100.

S&P500

S&P500 slightly weaker as it consist of banking stocks in the index which is dragging the index down. Currently at some congestion which is the horizontal line, downtrend line and the moving average. A break above the 4000 psychological could see S&P500 move higher to the 4100 level. We remain bullish for this week as market tries to stabilize and absorb the bad news around. Support at 3919 and  a break below that might signal more downside to 3811.

HSI

Something interest that we are seeing on the HSI is that its up 3 days in  a row, a rare sight for the last few months. Gaining some momentum on the upside BUT currently facing a few resistance as drawn from the above. A good break above 20,120 could see the HSI push up to 20700 if not we could see HSI consolidate for awhile. Optimistic about a break above this resistance! Support at 19733.

STI

STI which is almost 40% made up of our three local banks largely takes direction from the movement from the banks. Despite the banking crisis we do see our banks hold up pretty well. As our banks are on the safer side, investors are still confident in our banks. For this week, with an increase in interest rates, we might still see a move up after it cross 3225. A move towards 3262 is possible for this week as market tries to find its footing.

If you got any questions as always feel free to drop us a message.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , ,
5th March, 2023, 2:58 PM

As per last week’s update, we mentioned that markets were due for a rebound after coming down so much. The S&P500 touched the 200ma and the 38% Fibo retracement level which gave support for a rebound! What to look out for this week? Fed Chair testifies this week, once again market will look to what he has to say and if there is a chance of less aggressive interest rate hike and less hawkish statements. This could then give rise to another leg up.

Another to note, towards the end of the week, the usual NFP and IJC will also take spotlight as to how inflation might be.

And lastly, China’s “Two Sessions” is an annual parliamentary meeting that gathers delegates from across China to discuss and approve national priorities. China is also set to release its annual targets for GDP growth, inflation and employment. The meeting could last about 2 weeks. What’s interesting is that China tends to gain after the NPC meeting. Are you positioned for that?

 

HSI

 

HSI came to our near term support and bounced off and even broke through the downtrend line which has been resisting it. Volume came in as short sellers looked to cover while long traders took the chance to build their positions. As we been advocating, take the downside for the HSI to add in your long term positions. With this break, we might see the index trend higher in the coming weeks. The hang seng index could still do a re-test of the lower band of 20,110 and then start to move up towards 21,353. Hope you have added some long term positions! Baidu, Tencent is leading the charge!

Watch out for the NPC meeting that is currently taking place too. It could give clues to which sector to be focusing on.

STI

STI was the only index that didn’t rebound, but we could be looking at some rebound this week as banks are also nearing their support. The immediate support for STI is at 3220 then 3181. We’re looking more for a rebound rather than shorting now. As banks make a big part of the STI, a move upwards could see it pull the STI up.

Its a big week ahead and things are looking up! Head over to our Facebook to read up more on the S&P500 and Nasdaq100. You don’t want to miss this.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy