STI

The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
20th August, 2023, 9:48 PM

As early as Mid July we’ve been sounding the bell to be careful especially in the US markets when the greed & fear index was at the extreme greed, emotions were raising and investors were rushing in for the fear of missing the next rally. Ever since then, the S&P500 has pulled back about 5% and the Nasdaq about 8%. Market sentiments continue to be weak especially for AUG-SEPT which is seasonally weaker therefore such a pullback is no surprise to us.

Of course time in the market is better than timing the market but as an educated investor we want to do some studies and make the best of what knowledge we have.

We did a simple study for one year for the greed & fear index vs the S&P500. Can you spot anything on the chart??We have highlighted that whenever the Greed&fear is below 50 or swings towards the fear to extreme fear do you notice that market is kind of near or at the bottom?? And what happens next? Its for ur own interpretation. =) but from the looks of it, the bottom usually is near. So for now, market might have a bit more room to go down BUT we can never know where the bottom is and therefore it is important to do a dollar cost average!

STI

Straits Times Index 20th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 20aug 2023

The Straits Times Index  came off for the week but more than we expected! As world wide sentiments continue to dampen, Singapore market being so small will naturally be affected. We still could see more downside to 3130 levels before we see some meaning rebound. Over there we probably go for a rebound trade as bargain hunters will start coming out. Bank stocks like OCBC is on our radar for a rebound.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 20th Aug 2023

HSI saw a disappointing close affected by negative sentiments and a gloomy forecast of the China’s economy. Property sector in China continues to slow down with  china evergrande filing for US  bankruptcy adding to the already tough economy. The hang seng index looks like it might go down to 17400 level first. We need to see a rebound if not the structure for a bull case would not be so good. China government also have to come out with something quick if not the index could even sink to as low as 17k. As always, proper allocation into the markets is important and as HK pulls back for those without any position, then take the chance to scale in. BUT if you are fully allocated into the HK market then focus elsewhere and let time heal this market.

To know more about our take on the US and key points to look at to scale in, head over to our FACEBOOK PAGE.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , , ,
13th August, 2023, 11:00 PM

Some might feel a bit sad as the markets have been pulling back the last week or so with the Nasdaq pulling back about 6% and the S&P about 3.5%. As we have been mentioning for a few weeks to be prepared for a pullback especially after such a nice rally for the past few months. Many reasons can be attributed to the pullback like inflation slightly ticking up, US banks downgrade and so many more. What matter most is to make use of this pullback to continue to add to solid companies or for those who missed out on the rally to finally get in.

Source: Cnn greed & fear index

As cautioned back in July when the indicator was at the extreme greed area and when everyone was rushing into the market for the fear of missing the boat we patiently waited. Finally we are seeing some pullback and some bad news starting to come out of the market.

Nobody will know how much this pullback will last. But a good 10% pullback could be a chance to make an entry. Also , take a look at your individual stock as they could pullback more than the S&P like Microsoft is already down 12.5%. =)

S&P 500

Source: Tradingview 13th Aug 2023

S&P500 as cautioned many times saw a nice pullback for the week. It has covered the small gap of 4463. Bad news is starting to flow out of US and for the untrained investor then this might cause some panic. The first support for the S&P500 could be at the 50ema of around 4429 level then then 4383 and even 4300 These are some levels to scale in if you’re looking for an entry.

Nasdaq100

Source: Tradingview 13th Aug 2023

Nasdaq100 has pulled back more than the S&P500 because it has also risen more during the rally. Tech stocks lead the way when the recovery starts and when it pullback then its time to scale in at the support.  For Nasdaq, the first level of support is at 15000 level which we saw some rebound. This rebound could be short lived to about 15300 and then a downside support target of 14720 level might be touched. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to scale in.

HSI

Source: DZH International Advisor 13th Aug 2023

The Hang Seng Index did not close that well for the week. A red bar with volume could see more downside for the HSI this week The next support is at 18560. This has to hold for the hang seng to resume its uptrend and not get back down to a downtrend mode. Will be watching closely for this as this could be another buying opportunity. Still a lot of negative news and deflationary concerns surrounding the China markets which is causing a stall in this rally. China needs a more conclusive policy to help boost the market sentiments and get them out of this state.

STI

Straits Times Index 13th Aug 2023

Source: DZH International Advisor 13th Aug 2023

The Straits Times Index bounced off the 20ema on Friday but we might continue to see more downside for the STI to 3240 levels. Over there then we might see a good rebound coming in. As Singapore market looks a little dull for now, set your eyes to the other markets for better returns and that is key in order to survival in such a market.

We hope you have gained some insights for the week. As usual, if you need any help in your portfolio or unsure of which stock to enter. Feel free to reach out!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , ,
6th August, 2023, 10:01 PM

S&P500 and Nasdaq tumbled for four straight days, notching the worst week since March. This is partly due to Fitch downgrading US to AA+ rating. If you are waiting on the sidelines or someone who missed the rally then this should be music to your ears. FINALLY some pullback!

We’ll be updating the potential levels to look out for if you are considering an entry so do head over to our facebook page to stay updated with the latest. Aug- Sep are usually seasonally weaker periods too so one could take advantage of this if the market pulls back.

STI

Straits Times Index 6th Aug 2023

Source : DZH International advisor 6th Aug 2023

Just shy of 7 points to 3400 and the Straits Times Index went into profit taking mode. As warned, at around 3400 we would want to be taking some profits. For the week, STI has retraced about 3% which is healthy and could be looking to around 3240 levels for further retracement. Waiting for the dust to settle before making any moves. Keeping a look out for REITS as interest rates is stablizing and this might be time to start accumulating REITS if you want to build up a income dividend port.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 6th Aug 2023

Source : DZH International advisor 6th Aug 2023

The Hang Seng Index did hit our 20119 target last week but as much as we wanted it to carry on, it met with some roadblock and like the other markets, it saw some selling and moved down to the 20ema support line. For now this support is holding and the next line of support would be around the 19500 area. It got to hold around there in order to have it make a higher low to continue on the uptrend. Will be watching for a day or two to ensure the selling has stopped before making another move. We enjoyed the previous wave so holding back is not wrong too.

Head over to our Facebook page to find out the potential levels for the S&P500 as this pullback is starting to make stocks more attractive in the US.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
30th July, 2023, 11:14 PM

It was a rather flattish week for the US market as markets all priced in a rate hike from the Fed. Towards the end of the week we saw inflation data coming in lighter than expected which once again drove US markets up. S&P is track for the fifth straight month which is something we haven’t seen in awhile. BUT as S&P was flattish for the week the Hong Kong was up about 7.5% for the week! Let’s talk more about that in awhile!

Some key data to look out for this week would be earnings coming out. Sentiments would be dominated by earnings this week and China’s PMI data coming out this tuesday. After China’s Politiburo meeting on the 24th July, their stance and tone seems to have changed. They are now on an all out measure to turn their economy around after many quarters of slowing down.

STI

STI 30th July 2023

STI rebounded as mentioned last week earnings from UOB helped to push the three banks as results were promising and hitting expectations. For this week, we could see STI testing the 3400 level as see momentum coming in. At 3400 level, there could be resistance and it would be good to take some profits there. Many of our stocks that we have been alerting our clients to have been hitting their targets and its time to take some profits off the table.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 30th July 2023

The Hang Seng Index, the beast of the east has finally unleased its power! Up about 7.5% As mentioned previously, we expected hong kong to rebound after holding critical levels. And after the Politiburo last week, China is stepping up efforts to grow the economy as worse than expected data started to flow out from China. This could help rally stocks for the short to mid term as China badly needs a big stimulus to grow and attract foreign investors.

For this week, we do see a continual momentum towards the 20119 level first. We’re targeting 20652 for the next two-three weeks. Not in a straight line but good chance to see it as investors who missed out will have to chase prices now.

Head over to our facebook for updates of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , ,
23rd July, 2023, 3:49 PM

We get really excited whenever we see a pullback in the markets especially in the US. When market run away too fast and too high that’s a big of a danger as most would jump in on fear of missing out. Furthermore the greed and fear is current at 82 under the extreme greed region. As the old saying goes when everyone is greedy, be fearful. =) When everyone was fearful, that’s when we should be greedy.

For this week, the most important event would be Fed meeting. Market as a whole is expecting a 0.25% increase this coming Wed. There is a 99% chance that Fed will hike.


Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

How much of this priced in? Could US market finally have some pullback after this rate hike? We’re hoping so and also depends on what the Fed says after that. Could this be the last or one more time in sept? As inflation is coming down would there still be a need for a second hike? Watching the statement is more important than the hike itself.

STI

Straits Times Index 23rd July 2023

Source : DZH International advisor 23rd July 2023

STI inching closer to our 3300 target as we continue to see a rebound in the STI. For this week, we might continue to see some rebound as an increase in rates could help prop up banks which supports our STI. OCBC has found our target while hot stock Sembcorp Industries also saw some rebound. Overall, STI is starting to see more action after a pullback last month.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 23rd July

Source : DZH International advisor 23rd July 2023

HSI saw a pullback for last week after dismal reading of its GDP! It came in lower than expected which saw traders taking the chance to take profits off the table.  It managed to find some support and not head back to the 18,500 level. This is a good sign as market is forming a higher low pattern. We could be looking at market testing the 19700 region as a base is starting to form. Once again, big tech stocks are also firming up and we could see more upside. JD, Tencent are on our radar.

Head over to our facebook page for more updates on the S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , , ,
16th July, 2023, 10:35 PM

Another week up for markets as we saw the HK market came to life after Ant’s crackdown has ended. US markets also performed well after inflation data came in softer than expected. Overall, positive sentiments continue to flow and many of our HK and SG selections are all giving us good returns.

For this week, there are three key events to look out for.

  1. Its Earnings time. Second quarter earnings season gets underway as major banks started reporting last week. Expectations are low going into earnings and with earning beat we might see market moving up. Tesla will be one of the Mag 7 reporting its results on Wed! Head over here to look out for your company that are reporting. Remember, if you’re holding great companies for the long term then going into earnings wouldn’t be too much of a concern. BUT for those trading short term, holding over results is always a risky plan and its not something we would like to do.
  2. China economic data. China’s GDP Data will be coming out on Monday and any slow down might give rise to hopes of a stimulus from the Chinese govt. Gross domestic product is expected to have grown by an annualized 7.3% in the three months to June, compared with growth of 4.5% in the first quarter. Industrial production will also be out.
  3. US core retail sales (MOM) expecting a rise in that from 0.1 to 0.3%

We did see some profit taking coming in on Friday which is perfectly normal given such a strong run.

STI

As mentioned last week, we were expecting a rebound for the Straits Times Index and rebound it came! Pleasantly surprised with the strength as we saw banks being scooped up after being smashed down. We can see that STI being resisted by that downtrend line. We do think that the market might break it and test the 3300 resistance level. Many blue chip stocks are seeing a nice rebound for last week. SATS, SGX, Capitalland invest are all doing well. Special mention for Seatrium which saw a 18% move just for the week. Glad we caught this move too!

HSI

Hang Seng Index 16th Jul 2023

Short covering and bargain hunting stay the tone for last week as we saw the hang seng index roaring back. Tech stocks like baidu, tencent and ALIBABA all saw nice returns for the week. During such run, using DLCs could potentially upsize your profits! For this week, momentum could still carry on and we could be looking to test the 20k mark once again. There is heavy resistance there and it needs to build a base before taking it out. China data could provide some boost too. Don’t miss out on this rally and we hope you got in for some long term positions on the hong kong market.

Head over to our facebook for more updates and levels to look out for for the S&P500 and Nasdaq100.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
9th July, 2023, 3:21 PM

S&P500 ended the week down of about 1.2%. Why are we excited as in the picture you might ask. Well, as we been bullish for the year and do want to add more positions into the market so of course when the market is down we are excited. =) Are you too?

Greed & Fear index still at the extreme greed currently at 78 we are waiting for it to drop further before making an entry.

For this week, with Alibaba giving a boost to the HK market as China ends Ant’s Group regulatory revamp, this might raise hope of China ending it regulatory tightening on big tech. So we could see the upside coming in for HK.

Over in the US, earnings season is starting. With major banks reporting this Friday like Citibank, JP Morgan and Blackrock, this could bring the markets into some volatility. Keeping a lookout especially for the MAG 7 stocks which is a barometer of the economy.

STI

Chart Source: DZH International 9th July 2023

Our Straits Times Index dropped below our uptrend support line as banks and blue chips pulled back especially Sembcorp and Keppel Crop as they were the front runners for the STI for the past few months. Pullback is timely so that those who missed the rally can finally get in. But of course the time to re-entry is not yet. At least for us. We’ll be waiting for a base to form for Sembcorp Industries before deciding an entry. If you want to be informed of our next entry, ensure you’re in our telegram channel to receive all the latest updates and alerts.

STI could see a rebound this week as its coming close to the 3100 level. SATS looking strong despite the weak week.

HSI

Chart Source: DZH International 9th July 2023

HSI once again imploded over the week BUT saw some light at the end of the tunnel as China ends it crack down on Ant group. This could be a good sign for the overall market and even better for Alibaba’s shareholders. HSI looking like a double bottom forming around the 18k level which is crucial. HSI has to stay above this level although a crack and rebound is one of the option to wash out weak hands.  We could see HSI having some bargain hunting this week.

Currently market is looking for more stimulus as China badly needs a boost to their slowing economy. With this pullback, remember of your proper allocation into the markets. We are positive for HK but the proper allocation into the different markets matters too. Are you too heavy into the HK market? Need help in re-balancing? Let us know. We could shed some light.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about our views on the US markets. IS IT TIME TO BUY?

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead July 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI , , , , ,
2nd July, 2023, 9:45 PM

US markets ended up in the green with a strong push despite Fed gunning for a two consecutive rate hike. It seems that nothing can stop this rally! Its good news for us of course as we are already positioned in the market. BUT of course, we would like to add more shares in. For those who haven’t gotten in due to all the fearmongers out there. One way is to start dollar cost average. We’ve been bullish since the start of the year and have been updating as much as possible but if all else fails, then star your dollar cost average as soon. YES, it may seem high now but what if market moves up to 4800 by year end? Can you afford to miss that??

Once again, we’ll update more in our upcoming webinar this coming Wednesday. Don’t miss it as we got lots of important stuff to go through. You can sign up over HERE .

source: https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedSource:

The greed and fear index is currently into the extreme greed. If you ask me to enter the US markets now i would be hesitant. When it was in extreme fear back in march that’s when we entered the markets. So for now, we wouldn’t mind waiting for a lower entry.

Still lost on what to do with the markets? Let’s chat more this coming Wednesday in our webinar.

So what to look out for this week? Its a shorter week for US as they celebrate Independence day on 4th July. Fed minute meeting will be out this week. Other than that nothing really exciting for the markets yet.

STI

STI 2nd July 2023

Chart Source: DZH International Advisors 2nd July 2023

STI showed some resilience through the week and remain supported at that uptrend support line of 3186. For this week, with the positive sentiment of the US, we might see an attempt to move up to the 3249 level first. STI is looking like a sideways consolidation with any of its underlying blue chips not really going anywhere. SIA saw a big gap down on Temasek sold some of its stake on Friday. Importance of not chasing when the price has risen too much. June holidays are over, with the next half of the year starting, we should see the market start picking up as traders come back from their leave.

HSI

HSI 2nd July 2023

Chart Source: DZH International Advisors 2nd July 2023

HSI was a in sideways movement for the whole of last week. Critical support remains at 18522. China’s caixin PMI data will be out on Monday morning. This could set the tone for the week. A weaker data could spur more stimulus down the road and a stronger one might give some hope that China’s market is starting to get back on track. Overall, we need more stimulus for the HSI to move which is currently lacking. After the initial wave of stimulus, HSI has gone flat is awaiting more action.

Head over to our Facebook page for updates on the US markets as we are seeing more moves over there.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead June 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy Stock Market , , , ,
25th June, 2023, 10:55 PM

US STOCKS closed lower on Friday (Jun 23), capping a week dominated by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony. With few market-moving catalysts this week aside from Powell’s congressional testimony, all three indexes notched weekly losses, ending a weeks-long rally.

The Nasdaq snapped its eight week winning streak while S&P 500 broke its five-week rally. Is this the start of more downside? In our view we do think so given such a strong rally, a pullback is not too much to ask for right? Especially for those who missed out on this rally, this could be an opportunity to scale into the markets.

3 key events to look out for this week, the first being Fed’s speech on Wed, second is China’s PMI data on Thursday and lastly Fed’s preferred inflation data which is the PCE. As inflation is still above 2%, Fed is still trying to bring it down and is now looking at another two more rate hikes for the year. Friday’s data could give an insight to what Fed might do for the July’s meeting. Do head over to our Facebook page to find out more about the key levels to watch out for this week for the US markets.

STI

Straits Times Index 25th June 2023

Chart Source: DZH Internatioanl Advisor 25th June 2023

Following global sentiments, the straits times index also saw a pullback for the week as blue chip stocks like sembcorp industries, keppel corp and SIA all finally saw profit taking. Banks initially led some rebound as a higher rate environment could continue to lead to higher profitability for them.

Our Straits Times Index is currently at its immediate support of around 3186. It does look like there might be more downside to it which we might even see 3123 as the downside target. If the index reaches there, we do see good opportunities to enter the market.

HSI

Hong Kong Index 25th June 2023

Chart Source: DZH Internatioanl Advisor 25th June 2023

After a very steep rebound on expectations of rate cuts and stimulus from China’s government , HSI saw a sharp pullback. A pullback to 18522 level is possible for the week. PMI data coming out on Friday might help spur the govt to do more stimulus if data comes below expectations so that’s something to look at for the week.

Meanwhile, some more downside might be expected before a rebound. 18522 level first then a test of the recent low of around 18000 should give some firm rebound.

To find out more about the US markets don’t forget to head over to our Facebook page.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead June 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

Kelwin & Roy STI, Stock Market , , ,
11th June, 2023, 9:51 PM

Another good week for the US markets as it notches fourth straight positive week climbing on a wall of fear. US market continues to ride on the AI theme although there are signs of slowing momentum as stocks have ran up quite a bit already.

 

The greed & fear index has entered the extreme greed zone which indicates the sentiments are much better now and traders are willing to go risk on. We are a little contrarian when it comes to this, being extreme greed might not be too good for the short term as traders start to pile in to the market. We have been giving advanced cue since may for a potential upswing which has happened and now market seems a little high and we prefer a pullback before entering. Not chasing the markets for now.

For this week , CPI and Fed meeting will be the key events to look out for. Market participants are expecting fed to keep rates and not increase it. 30% are seeing a raise. So if Fed does raise the rates, we might see a pullback from the markets.

STI

Straits Times Index 11th June 2023

Chartsource: DZH Advisor 11th June 2023

STI still a little lackluster, with a few stocks standing out from the rest. Sembcorp industries and SIA are two that are shinning brightly.

For this week, we might see some rebound from Keppel Corp, Capitaland Invest and SATS.  STI could move up to test 3200 then 3225. STI could also wait and see if Fed pauses rate this coming week which might actually not be too good for the banks as it would mean that interest rate hike has peaked and banks moving forward might not see such high net interest margins already.

HSI

Heng Seng Index 11th June 2023

Chartsource: DZH Advisor 11th June 2023

HSI is a lot more exciting and active than the other regional markets as we are seeing a strong rebound ever since HSI went into a bear market. This rebound has caught the shortist hence seeing a fiercer rebound. Many are speculating a stimulus from China’s government to spur the markets. Do be careful as it could be a sell on news kind of situation as markets are rebounding on such expectations.

For this week, we might continue to see rebound to 19600 then 20k Strong resistance around the 20k mark where HSI should take a break. We hope you took the chance to load up on some good shares like Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent. Another exciting week ahead.

Head over to our Facebook page to learn more about how Nasdaq and S&P500 might perform this week.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy