Although Singapore’s F1 night race is over there is another exciting event coming up which is the Fed meeting happening this week. Fed will meet once again to decide if they will hike interest rates. The probability for the hike is only 2% while 98% thinks that Fed won’t be hiking.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Although Sep’s meeting most likely should not see a hike, we might see a might in Nov if inflation starts creeping up. So lets not celebrate too early. We could still see some pullback in the markets after this.

STI

The Straits Times Index showed strength for the week, as it touched the downtrend support line. A consolidation happened over there and started to take off. Banks led the way while other blue chips like Sembcorp industries, Keppel Corp helped to bring the index up. US closed negative on Friday night which we could see the negative sentiments flowing through Asia. We could see a small pullback for the STI before making an attempt towards 3320 area.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index also showed strength towards the end of the week as China’s retail sales showed some signed of improvement which came as a surprised. We can see from the chart that it was consolidating for the week before pushing up. It is currently resisted by the 20ema and also coinciding with the downtrend resistance line. Furthermore, with the negative close in the US we could see HK pulling back too. Waiting for HSI to break above the 20ema for a clearer picture and strength for the HSI. The next target could be 19730.

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

It was no surprise that markets fell through the week with the S&P500 falling 1.5% for the week. We’ve been warning about Sept being a weaker month and we’re currently seeing that weakness flowing through now. How deep will this pullback be? We did mention about this in our previous webinar and a pullback of about 5-10% is within expectation.

And this week would be interesting as CPI & PPI will be out on wed & thursday. This would be crucial as Oil is starting to spike and there has been murmur about inflation moving up. This week’s data would be useful in helping to decide if Fed would increase their rates at the next meeting. So do take note of this.

STI

STI didn’t go as planned as we the overall bearishness in the US & HK market flowed into our Straits Times Index. We didn’t see a continuation of the rebound and now could see some downside instead. It is currently at the support level of around 3200 and if this break we could see the downside to 3180 then 3150. Looking at more downside for the week.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index also pulled back on worries about China’s property stock falling out plus a slowing economy doesn’t add well to the mix. It was a short week as HK was closed due typhoon warning. For the week, we could see more downside again taking the Hang Seng Index to 17500 level. Wait for a base to form before adding and of course with the right allocation.

Head over to our FB page for more updates on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

US market ended up for the week after PCE and unemployment data. We can see that the momentum of the market is starting to slow down and market doesn’t run too much on. We are in the month of Sept and seasonally this is a weaker month BUT there could still be a chance of it ending up and TAKE THIS CHANCE TO ADD SHARES IF YOU MISSED OUT PREVIOUSLY. For the month of Sept, Fed meeting would be one key event to look at. Market is widely anticipating Fed not to increase this round as inflation is showing signs of slow down and economy is also slow down. This could in turn bring a pause in rates which could bring another rally for the markets. =)

STI

The Straits Times Index  rebound to our target of around 3230 level and currently being resisted. For the week ahead, we could see it break this resistance. Blue chip stock like Keppel Corp, SATS looks poised for a breakout. We’re targeting about 3295 for the next week or so as stocks are showing signs of rebound. We managed to catch the rebound in the banks which we mentioned TWO WEEKS back!

HSI

Hang Seng Index had a shorter week due to typhoon saola which shut the HK market down on friday. We were expecting resistance when HK went to 18522 our target, true enough we saw a pullback from the HK market. It is now currently at the 5ema support. We could see it consolidate over here with the downside support at 18053 and the resistance at 18522. After that we could see it move up to 18814 level at the gap resistance. Proceed with caution for the HK market as the market needs time to resolve its slowing economy and one way is through a big STIMULUS from the China Govt before it can really take off.

Proceed to our FACEBOOK for US markets!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

It was a relatively volatile week and with the jackson hole meeting finally out of the way this now paves the way for the next Fed meeting.

As we’re entering Sept a seasonally weaker period we could see market starting to be more volatile too. That said, it doesn’t mean we will wait for a BOTTOM which nobody knows but at certain support levels that’s when we will scale in. We do look at this pullback as an opportunity to add good quality shares.

STI

Chart Source: DZH 27aug 2023

Straits Times Index saw a rebound as we expected. Reaching close to the 3130 levels. Many stocks saw some rebound which we could see it continue for the week. The resistance we’re looking at its at around the 3220 level. We’re seeing the banks leading the rebound and Sembcorp the darling of STI also showing signs of rebound. After hitting the resistance we might want to be a little cautious as we could still see some pullback after that. So don’t go too crazy

HSI

Chart Source: DZH 27aug 2023

Hang Seng Index formed a base for the week and started to show some rebound. We might not be out of the WOODS yet as HSI still remains unstable due to many downgrades and its property sector still not showing signs of rebound. It’s important to ensure proper allocation to the Hong Kong market and not putting all your eggs in one basket. We could see the HSI rebound to the 20ema at around 18522 level before meeting with meaningful resistance.  Geely holding up well last week despite the sell down.

Head over to our facebook for more updates on the S&P and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

As early as Mid July we’ve been sounding the bell to be careful especially in the US markets when the greed & fear index was at the extreme greed, emotions were raising and investors were rushing in for the fear of missing the next rally. Ever since then, the S&P500 has pulled back about 5% and the Nasdaq about 8%. Market sentiments continue to be weak especially for AUG-SEPT which is seasonally weaker therefore such a pullback is no surprise to us.

Of course time in the market is better than timing the market but as an educated investor we want to do some studies and make the best of what knowledge we have.

We did a simple study for one year for the greed & fear index vs the S&P500. Can you spot anything on the chart??We have highlighted that whenever the Greed&fear is below 50 or swings towards the fear to extreme fear do you notice that market is kind of near or at the bottom?? And what happens next? Its for ur own interpretation. =) but from the looks of it, the bottom usually is near. So for now, market might have a bit more room to go down BUT we can never know where the bottom is and therefore it is important to do a dollar cost average!

STI

Chart Source: DZH 20aug 2023

The Straits Times Index  came off for the week but more than we expected! As world wide sentiments continue to dampen, Singapore market being so small will naturally be affected. We still could see more downside to 3130 levels before we see some meaning rebound. Over there we probably go for a rebound trade as bargain hunters will start coming out. Bank stocks like OCBC is on our radar for a rebound.

HSI

HSI saw a disappointing close affected by negative sentiments and a gloomy forecast of the China’s economy. Property sector in China continues to slow down with  china evergrande filing for US  bankruptcy adding to the already tough economy. The hang seng index looks like it might go down to 17400 level first. We need to see a rebound if not the structure for a bull case would not be so good. China government also have to come out with something quick if not the index could even sink to as low as 17k. As always, proper allocation into the markets is important and as HK pulls back for those without any position, then take the chance to scale in. BUT if you are fully allocated into the HK market then focus elsewhere and let time heal this market.

To know more about our take on the US and key points to look at to scale in, head over to our FACEBOOK PAGE.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy