The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

24th September, 2023, 11:02 PM

The S&P500 and Nasdaq both posted worst week since March after Fed meeting. As always, we warn not to take up too much positions before any major events. Fed didn’t hike rate as anticipated BUT it always mentioned that it won’t be cutting rates that aggressively in 2024 which saw market selling off. The 10 year yield also started moving up which puts more pressure on the markets especially on Nasdaq.

For this week, there are some critical levels to watch out for especially for the US markets.

S&P500

The S&P500 currently sitting on a first level of support of  4320 could see it move down lower during the week. We could see it test the 4264 level which coincides with the 200ema and the uptrend support line too. This could be the first level to scale in if you have missed out on the year’s rally. This level would represent about a 7% pullback and its well within a healthy market pullback. In fact, a 10% pullback shouldn’t be seen as a surprise given how much markets have ran up too. So get your ammo ready!

Nasdaq100

Nasdaq, the index that is more sensitive towards interest rates movement has already seen about an 8% pullback since the high. But don’t forget this is the market that has risen a whooping 45% for the year too! so an 8% pullback once again shouldn’t be too much to ask for. For the week, we could also see Nasdaq continue to drift lower. The 200ema or 14078 level could be a good point of support. Waiting around there to add more positions into the Nasdaq.

STI

The Straits Times Index pulled back more than expected as the negative sentiments flowed through Asia after Fed’s meeting. STI has found some support at the 3186 level but this might not be able to hold that well. For the week, we could still see more weakness coming in as STI tries to defend the 3180 level. The next critical support would be at 3120.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index saw a strong come back of about 2.2% on Friday as funds put US$1 Billion back into China markets. Investors picked up badly beaten up stocks like Tencent which came to its $300 psychological level. HSI could push higher to 18500 level this week but take note that whenever HSI rallies, it tends to fizzle out. So don’t be overly optimistic on short term rally and be quick on securing profits. The support of 17570 had been tested and is proving to be a credible support for now. Once this holds well we might really see the bottoming for the Hang Seng Index. Fingers CROSSED!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

17th September, 2023, 11:17 PM

Although Singapore’s F1 night race is over there is another exciting event coming up which is the Fed meeting happening this week. Fed will meet once again to decide if they will hike interest rates. The probability for the hike is only 2% while 98% thinks that Fed won’t be hiking.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Although Sep’s meeting most likely should not see a hike, we might see a might in Nov if inflation starts creeping up. So lets not celebrate too early. We could still see some pullback in the markets after this.

STI

The Straits Times Index showed strength for the week, as it touched the downtrend support line. A consolidation happened over there and started to take off. Banks led the way while other blue chips like Sembcorp industries, Keppel Corp helped to bring the index up. US closed negative on Friday night which we could see the negative sentiments flowing through Asia. We could see a small pullback for the STI before making an attempt towards 3320 area.

HSI

 

The Hang Seng Index also showed strength towards the end of the week as China’s retail sales showed some signed of improvement which came as a surprised. We can see from the chart that it was consolidating for the week before pushing up. It is currently resisted by the 20ema and also coinciding with the downtrend resistance line. Furthermore, with the negative close in the US we could see HK pulling back too. Waiting for HSI to break above the 20ema for a clearer picture and strength for the HSI. The next target could be 19730.

Head over to our Facebook page for more updates on the US market.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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ARM IPO – Listing Tonight, Should You Chase?

14th September, 2023, 8:42 PM

 

Arm is set to trade tonight with an IPO price of $51. It is debut as the blockbuster IPO of the year and hopes of it to rejuvenate the IPO market. TSMC is investing up to 100million in ARM Holding’s IPO and many big names like AMAZON, APPLE, MICROSOFT, NVIDIA are also said to be some of the anchor investor.

A common question we get is, can buy?  With such hype, a natural feeling to want to quickly get in on the opening day is understandable. Here’s a little snapshot of what they do and our thoughts at the end if one should chase the price.

ARM chips are made by companies including Amazon, Alphabet, AMD, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm and even Samsung. Arm doesn’t build its own chips but anything when a company builds a chip based on ARM’s architecture, ARM takes a fee or royalty. For example, all of Apple’s chip is built based on Arm’s architecture and it takes a fee on that. Or whenever you buy anything that runs on Nvidia chip, Arm also takes a small fee.  So they earn these recurring fees every year.

In terms of market share, they own about 99% of the mobile phone application processor, 64% of the embedded computing market.

They have a wide economic moat, a good brand monopoly with a vast library of intellectual properties. They also have a large and established ecosystem.

There are also risk involved like customer concentration. Their top5 customer makes up 57% of their revenue and ARM China makes up about 24%.

As they are going IPO, we can only see the last 3 years of financial data. Having a longer data would be better as it provides more insight to a company’s profitability and sustainably

-Revenue was for from 2022-2023, net income was -4.5% while free cash flow increased from 2022-2023 but it decreased from 2021-2022.

So in conclusion, I won’t be chasing the price tonight. And like most BIG HYPE IPOs theat were listed, it tends to come off after awhile when the hype dies down. Referencing from some big IPO like meta, Airbnb and even Rivian, they all dropped eventually after going IPO. Will ARM be like that? I would prefer to be on the side lines and not chase and wait for a retracement first.  THAT IS WHEN I will be looking at it. Currently at $51 it might be a little too expensive for my liking.

Want to know when i might get into ARM??

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

10th September, 2023, 10:29 PM

It was no surprise that markets fell through the week with the S&P500 falling 1.5% for the week. We’ve been warning about Sept being a weaker month and we’re currently seeing that weakness flowing through now. How deep will this pullback be? We did mention about this in our previous webinar and a pullback of about 5-10% is within expectation.

And this week would be interesting as CPI & PPI will be out on wed & thursday. This would be crucial as Oil is starting to spike and there has been murmur about inflation moving up. This week’s data would be useful in helping to decide if Fed would increase their rates at the next meeting. So do take note of this.

STI

STI didn’t go as planned as we the overall bearishness in the US & HK market flowed into our Straits Times Index. We didn’t see a continuation of the rebound and now could see some downside instead. It is currently at the support level of around 3200 and if this break we could see the downside to 3180 then 3150. Looking at more downside for the week.

HSI

The Hang Seng Index also pulled back on worries about China’s property stock falling out plus a slowing economy doesn’t add well to the mix. It was a short week as HK was closed due typhoon warning. For the week, we could see more downside again taking the Hang Seng Index to 17500 level. Wait for a base to form before adding and of course with the right allocation.

Head over to our FB page for more updates on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin&Roy

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Why You Should Be Watching This

6th September, 2023, 9:32 PM

In our previous webinar in August we shared the current market outlook and whether is it time to start scaling in. Should you be afraid of this current pullback or should you take action and ignore the news?

We also talked about Hong Kong/China market and whether you should ignore these markets given how depressed they are.

Lastly, we shared 3 more stocks to look at for the rest of the year and answered many questions during our Q&A which includes TESLA, CRM, Vinfast and so many more.

Watch the video recording OVER HERE.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

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The Week Ahead Sept 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

3rd September, 2023, 10:00 PM

US market ended up for the week after PCE and unemployment data. We can see that the momentum of the market is starting to slow down and market doesn’t run too much on. We are in the month of Sept and seasonally this is a weaker month BUT there could still be a chance of it ending up and TAKE THIS CHANCE TO ADD SHARES IF YOU MISSED OUT PREVIOUSLY. For the month of Sept, Fed meeting would be one key event to look at. Market is widely anticipating Fed not to increase this round as inflation is showing signs of slow down and economy is also slow down. This could in turn bring a pause in rates which could bring another rally for the markets. =)

STI

Straits Times Index 3rd Sept 2023

The Straits Times Index  rebound to our target of around 3230 level and currently being resisted. For the week ahead, we could see it break this resistance. Blue chip stock like Keppel Corp, SATS looks poised for a breakout. We’re targeting about 3295 for the next week or so as stocks are showing signs of rebound. We managed to catch the rebound in the banks which we mentioned TWO WEEKS back!

HSI

Hang Seng Index 3rd Sept

Hang Seng Index had a shorter week due to typhoon saola which shut the HK market down on friday. We were expecting resistance when HK went to 18522 our target, true enough we saw a pullback from the HK market. It is now currently at the 5ema support. We could see it consolidate over here with the downside support at 18053 and the resistance at 18522. After that we could see it move up to 18814 level at the gap resistance. Proceed with caution for the HK market as the market needs time to resolve its slowing economy and one way is through a big STIMULUS from the China Govt before it can really take off.

Proceed to our FACEBOOK for US markets!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

27th August, 2023, 10:48 PM

It was a relatively volatile week and with the jackson hole meeting finally out of the way this now paves the way for the next Fed meeting.

As we’re entering Sept a seasonally weaker period we could see market starting to be more volatile too. That said, it doesn’t mean we will wait for a BOTTOM which nobody knows but at certain support levels that’s when we will scale in. We do look at this pullback as an opportunity to add good quality shares.

STI

 

Straits Times Index 27th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 27aug 2023

Straits Times Index saw a rebound as we expected. Reaching close to the 3130 levels. Many stocks saw some rebound which we could see it continue for the week. The resistance we’re looking at its at around the 3220 level. We’re seeing the banks leading the rebound and Sembcorp the darling of STI also showing signs of rebound. After hitting the resistance we might want to be a little cautious as we could still see some pullback after that. So don’t go too crazy

HSI

Hang Seng Index 27th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 27aug 2023

Hang Seng Index formed a base for the week and started to show some rebound. We might not be out of the WOODS yet as HSI still remains unstable due to many downgrades and its property sector still not showing signs of rebound. It’s important to ensure proper allocation to the Hong Kong market and not putting all your eggs in one basket. We could see the HSI rebound to the 20ema at around 18522 level before meeting with meaningful resistance.  Geely holding up well last week despite the sell down.

Head over to our facebook for more updates on the S&P and Nasdaq.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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National Day Might Be Over but POEMS GUARANTEED 5.8%PA Returns Is Not!

24th August, 2023, 12:06 PM

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Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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Aug Market Updates You Don’t Want To Miss

22nd August, 2023, 5:40 PM

Are you ready to stay ahead of the curve in today’s dynamic market landscape?

Could the current pullback we are witnessing turn into another crash? Or is this a good chance for those who missed out on the recent rally to scale in? Worried and unsure of what to do with your investments? Want to know why our clients are remaining bullish despite all the short term noise?

Then our next market update webinar is for you. Join us for an insightful time where we’re empower you with the latest trends, expert analysis and strategic insights to make informed investment decisions. We’ll be covering

  1. Is It Time To Enter The Market?
  2. Which Markets to Look At?
  3. Are There alternate Instruments Other Than Stocks and ETFs
  4. Common Pitfalls for Investors

Register to Secure your spot now!

🗓️Date and Day : Tuesday 29 Aug 203

🕗Time : 8-9:30pm

🔗Registration Link : bit.ly/SHSAUG

Seize the opportunity to empower your investment journey and make well-informed decisions. We look forward to having you join us for this exclusive event!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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The Week Ahead Aug 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

20th August, 2023, 9:48 PM

As early as Mid July we’ve been sounding the bell to be careful especially in the US markets when the greed & fear index was at the extreme greed, emotions were raising and investors were rushing in for the fear of missing the next rally. Ever since then, the S&P500 has pulled back about 5% and the Nasdaq about 8%. Market sentiments continue to be weak especially for AUG-SEPT which is seasonally weaker therefore such a pullback is no surprise to us.

Of course time in the market is better than timing the market but as an educated investor we want to do some studies and make the best of what knowledge we have.

We did a simple study for one year for the greed & fear index vs the S&P500. Can you spot anything on the chart??We have highlighted that whenever the Greed&fear is below 50 or swings towards the fear to extreme fear do you notice that market is kind of near or at the bottom?? And what happens next? Its for ur own interpretation. =) but from the looks of it, the bottom usually is near. So for now, market might have a bit more room to go down BUT we can never know where the bottom is and therefore it is important to do a dollar cost average!

STI

Straits Times Index 20th Aug 2023

Chart Source: DZH 20aug 2023

The Straits Times Index  came off for the week but more than we expected! As world wide sentiments continue to dampen, Singapore market being so small will naturally be affected. We still could see more downside to 3130 levels before we see some meaning rebound. Over there we probably go for a rebound trade as bargain hunters will start coming out. Bank stocks like OCBC is on our radar for a rebound.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 20th Aug 2023

HSI saw a disappointing close affected by negative sentiments and a gloomy forecast of the China’s economy. Property sector in China continues to slow down with  china evergrande filing for US  bankruptcy adding to the already tough economy. The hang seng index looks like it might go down to 17400 level first. We need to see a rebound if not the structure for a bull case would not be so good. China government also have to come out with something quick if not the index could even sink to as low as 17k. As always, proper allocation into the markets is important and as HK pulls back for those without any position, then take the chance to scale in. BUT if you are fully allocated into the HK market then focus elsewhere and let time heal this market.

To know more about our take on the US and key points to look at to scale in, head over to our FACEBOOK PAGE.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

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