The Week Ahead June 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

4th June, 2023, 10:44 PM

Another great week out for the US markets as Nasdaq and S&P pushed up higher. Well it is good for everyone who is on long, for those who missed the rally its really a pity. So if we do get any pullback in June, it could present a good opportunity for those who missed out thinking its a BEAR BEAR BEAR! June is seasonally a weaker month BUT during the 3rd year of the presidential month, June might still be alright. We’re still hoping for a pullback which could then allow some entry.

S&P500 pushed ahead past the 4200, 4300 looks possible on the cards which could be reached within this week. We won’t be chasing this market and would prefer to wait for a pullback first.

STI

Chart Source: DZH international AdvisorXs 4th June 2023

STI saw a rebound during the week but got resisted by the 20ema. After the initial rebound, the momentum is losing steam and is picking up by HSI rebound. STI could see positive momentum flowing and try once for another rebound. SATS looks like it might have more downside to $2.35 which will present a good rebound opportunity there. Overall, we’re looking for an upside this week to test the 20ema once again.

HSI

Chart Source: DZH international AdvisorXs 4th June 2023

HSI FINALLY saw a rebound after weeks of selling. Data coming below expectations caused selling through the week and as media started blasting that HSI is in the bear market, that’s when the market turns around and bite you. Better retail sales and caixin data helped market make that 4% rebound last friday. Rebound might continue on this week with the 20ema at 19200 as the first resistance. After weeks of selling, our clients were the first to be informed on Thursday about a potential rebound in play which came as a 4% rebound which wiped out the shortist. Want to be the first to be informed and not miss out. Join us to be the first to be informed of such potential move.

Head over to our facebook to find out more about the Nasdaq and S&P500 movement this week.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead May 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

28th May, 2023, 11:40 PM

What a week! Nasdaq saw an awesome close with AI theme leading the charge! May is turning out to be a positive month for the Nasdaq but relatively flat for the S&P500. So can sell and go away in May be trusted? We stated our point at the start of the month in our blog hinting to more upside than selling and we hoped that you have benefitted from this.

Early in the morning, the white house and republicans reached a tentative deal to avoid US default. The deal will still need to be approved by House and Senate lawmakers by wed to meet the 5 june deadline.

Nasdaq has been running up quite a bit so it might be a case of running ahead of news and selling on the news so beware, don’t anyhow jump in!

Now if you have been bearish all this while, reading too much doomsday prediction, predicting the WORST crash ever you would have missed out the 33% gain just for Nasdaq this year.  OR if you’re still shorting the markets hoping for another crash but market keeps on going up. Then our upcoming webinar is for you. If you want to ride the next wave up but still not sure how to do it then we encourage you to attend this and change things around. It is still not too late and there is HOPE for a change! Sign up as soon as there are really limited slots left.

STI

Straits Times Index 28th May 2023

Chart Source: DZH international advisor 28th May 2023

STI saw a rebound as mentioned last week. Banks especially DBS led the rebound and our clients had first dips on it catching the rebound from 30.50. We could see $32 coming this week with positive sentiments out there. Still on course for our rebound target of 3260. We hoped you managed to catch this rebound. Singapore electronic stocks also saw a nice rebound largely led by chip makers overseas.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 28th May 2023

Chart Source: DZH international advisor 28th May 2023

Rather disappointed with the HSI as weakness continues to set in and even breaking through our 19k support. We got to see HSI regaining its 19k level by this week if not the downside might be ugly. 18500 is a crucial support and we wouldn’t want that to break. We would want to see a base being formed first before taking any action for now. If you want to get the latest updates on the HSI like our clients then just reach out and we’ll let you know how to be added into our telegram channel.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about Nasdaq and S&P500 movement this week!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead May 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

21st May, 2023, 4:35 PM

Fist bumps all round as US markets push higher with Nasdaq even breaking above Aug2022 high! We’ve been bullish on the US markets and have been giving regular updates so hopefully you caught this break!  Big tech led the gain as traders/investors are becoming more optimistic about a rate pause. What will happen to the market with a rate pause? Will market trend up or down? We’ll be answering that in our upcoming webinar at the end of May. So register HERE if you want to find out what will happen.

The Greed and Fear index is starting to creep up towards the extreme greed area which is good if you’re on the LONG side. When it goes into the extreme greed that’s when we need to be alert as market might start being too bullish.

For this week, take note of Fed’s statement on Wednesday ( thursday morning local time) to get a confirmation if you’re going for a rate pause!

STI

Straits Times Index 21st May 2023

STI came down to our target support before launching a rebound. Short term resistance at 3200 which was the previous support. STI could look to break past this and stage a rebound to around 3260 levels. Banks are also due for a rebound after falling for over 2 weeks. Blue chip stocks like Capitaland Invest, Venture also could see further rebound into the week. =)

HSI

Hang Seng Index 21st May 2023

HSI once again the wild beast of the east saw wide swings during the week. It is now in a sideway consolidation. Results from big tech stocks like Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba were a little mixed. Some did better than expected while some came below expectation. Data coming out from China were also not as expected hence some selling came in. G7 summit also added strain as world leaders were looking to clamp down on China’s growing power.

With that on the backdrop, we might see weakness in the HSI a test of 19000. We need to see 19k hold before we can start  to see another rebound.  A rebound back to 20k could be on the cards very soon and we’re watching closely for that. Moving averages are already sloping down so more downside might be seen.

Head over to our Facebook to know more about our view on S&P500 and the strongest index for now Nasdaq100.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead May 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

7th May, 2023, 11:05 PM

 

It was an exciting week for the markets as Fed increase rates by 0.25% and bringing the Fed Fund rates to 5-5.25% . With this hike, Fed opens door to pause tightening cycle. Is this good news for markets? Our clients have been briefed and know what to do in an event of a pause. =) Want to know what happens when Fed pauses rates? Simply drop us a message.

Big tech results have also reported their results and so far all beating expectations which is a positive sign. Though slowing down which is very much expected, its a positive sign that results are still coming in above analyst expectations.

For this coming week , U.S CPI data on Wednesday and Thursday’sPPI data are among key data markets will be watching on further signs of inflation easing.

Markets are actually holding up well and there is risk on for the markets too. We would start to cautious if the gauge goes to extreme greed.

Could S&P500 finally break that strong resistance 4200? Head over to our Facebook to find out more. Meanwhile, we’ll dive more into the Straits Times Index and Hang Seng Index.

STI

Straits Times Index 7th May 2023

Chart source: DZH International Advisor 7th May 2023

STI moved as we expected, moving up to the resistance(3295) as drawn and coming back down. The banks are the main draggers for the STI as interest rates are looking to stabilize meaning that their NIM might start coming down and with recession looming, this could be a double blow for the banks. But once the banks come off to a low enough level, thats when we’ll be entering once again.

For this week, STI is being resisted by the 5ema. We’re expecting more downside for STI to 3220 level which could then flush out the weak hands.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 7th May 2023

Chart source: DZH International Advisor 7th May 2023

HSI also moving to plan. Pulling back first and then moving up. HSI is more exciting now and we have re-drew some of the lines to have a clearer picture. It is currently at the 20ema resistance of around 20032 level BUT we do think that there is strength for the HSI to breakthrough. We should have seen the bottom for this round and onwards to our target of 20500-20600. Jia you!

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about view on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead May 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

1st May, 2023, 10:37 PM

Did you know that the S&P500 ended April up close to 2% further adding to April being a positive month for the markets.

Now as we enter May. What is ahead of us? Firstly, Fed will be meeting on 2nd and 3rd May deciding if they will raise interest rates once again.

Secondly, the famous saying sell and go away in may! Will this self fulfilling prophecy happen?

Taking a quick look for the past 10 years S&P 500 was up 90% of the time but if we were to look back from 2008-2013, S&P500 actually fell 4/5 times or 80%. As such sell and go away in May ending in a negative region was about 33% for the past 15 years.

So for May, selling and going away in May might not hold true. The upside could surprise also depending on what Fed says.

STI

Straits Times Index 1st May 2023

Chart source: DZH International Advisor 1st May 2023

The moving averages are sloping down for the STI with the 5ema acting as the resistance. For this week we might see more downside for the index. It might try to move up test around 3295 and head back down. A break of 3267 could see it pullback to 3220. At that level, we probably see more entry as the index would look more attractive then. Banks are the main driver and we are seeing weakness in it that could drive the index down. Individual stocks are actually fairing pretty well despite the negative sentiments.

HSI

Hang Seng Index 1st May 2023

Chart source: DZH International Advisor 1st May 2023

HSI a little different from STI. We might see more upside for the week. The 20ema acted as the resistance which could see a bit of pullback first before accelerating upwards. We could wee about 20500-20600 for the end of the week as HSI is starting to form a base.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about view on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead April 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

16th April, 2023, 11:22 PM

 

CPI data which market was eyeing turned out lower than expected last week which sent markets on an upwards swing. Despite Initial jobless claim coming in higher than expected, inflation data took center stage as more signs of easing ease inflation fears.

Also, big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all beat expectation which gave a boost to the markets too.

This week, focus will continue to be on earnings. Corporate results and outlooks will be taking on added importance especially during this season as investors will gauge whether all this interest rate hike is hurting earnings and spending. Consumer discretionary sector stocks like Tesla , J&J , Goldman Sachs are just a few big companies  reporting next week and market will take cue from these earnings.

STI

Source: DZH International Advisors 16th April 2023

STI came off during the start of the week as expected but as CPI data came out, market start creeping up BUT started showing weakness on Friday as profit taking set in. For this week, expecting a drift down first to a test of the 20ema of now at 3270. Stocks in the STI components also looks tired, stocks like Sembcorp Industries, SGX and the banks too. So waiting for more pullback before entering. OR, one can considering a quick short to take advantage of the pullback. 

HSI

Source: DZH International Advisors 16th April 2023

HSI also having a sideways consolidation for now but has closed above the 5ema which is a positive sign for now. We should be looking at more upside for this week given the rebound on Friday. Upside to 20700 first which is also around that uptrend line resistance. Geely, Xiaomi are some of the stocks we’re looking at for this week for more upside. Overall, sentiments flowing from US will help to determine the direction for HSI too.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about view on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead April 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

9th April, 2023, 4:36 PM

Markets ended flat for the US side as traders looked to book profits ahead of the jobs data and long weekend. Market has been trying to digest the data as recent data might give more insight to an impending recession which is spooking the markets. Focus might start to shift towards recession fears as the narrative about interest rates starts to wane off.

For this week, all eyes will be on the CPI and whether it will further seal the deal for hopefully a final rate hike of 0.25% when the Fed meets in May. A less than expected numbers could give a boost to the markets together with April seasonality. Expecting market to consolidate first before making any move.

STI

Source: DZH international Advisor 9th April 2023

STI rose overall for last week as April seasonally is a better month for the stock market as portfolio managers look to rebalance their holdings and prepare for the next quarter. What was holding up the index also was the banks as their dividend pay out continue to help give support for the index. Profit taking set in after a week’s gain as traders looked to book profit before the crucial jobs data which came in line on Friday.

DBS will be going xd on Monday which could cause some selling as those who held through for the dividends might be letting it go after. We might see some knee jerk reaction to the STI as profit taking. UOB will go xd end of April ( 28th April)

The immediate support for the STI is around 3295. Immediate key psychological resistance is at 3330. A break of the support of 3295 which is also the uptrend support line could take us to around 3252 support level which we could be looking at for the week. After hitting that support, we could see support coming in for the markets as some pullback will be welcomed.

HSI

HSI looks like its rebounding from its recent correct and we could see some upside this coming week. It has closed above the 5ema which is a positive sign. For this week if HSI can remain above this 5ema further upside to 20680 then 21000 next. So far HSI is tracking US a little more taking cue from the world’s biggest market. HKEX looks stronger as its still above its 20ema which most tech stock like Baidu, Jd and Meituan are below.

Do be nimble this week as markets are not out of the woods yet.

Head over to our Facebook to find out more about view on the US markets.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

26th March, 2023, 9:47 PM

The Fed has risen interest rates by 0.25% and further mention that one more rate hike for the year is on the cards and probably no rate cute. With that market volatility set in but as the week came to a close, markets started settling down. Now with fed decision out of the way. What will market be looking forward to and how will the market perform for the week?

Traders will be hoping for some form of stability to return to markets roiled by bank failures in the coming week as they weigh the ongoing fallout from the forced UBS-Credit Suisse tie-up. Upcoming Core PCE Date which is the Fed preferred data could bring some volatility towards the end of the week.

China’s PMI data on Friday will be closely watched as market watchers try to gauge the strength of the recovery in the world’s second largest economy in the wake of the lifting of pandemic restrictions.

Now let’s take a look on the technical front for the various markets.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 considered strong as its above the 200ema and what’s interesting is that the 50ema is looking to cross the 200ema. A bullish sign if this happens! Nasdaq remains stronger as traders switch from banking stocks to tech stock and pile in on tech stocks as the 10 year fell. Also, traders look to move in on the recent hot theme on artificial intelligence.  For the week ahead, the key resistance that Nasdaq has to take out would be around 12913. Market has tested that area recently but haven’t been able to break it. As April draws near, a seasonally better month we could see market gathering pace if this banking crisis don’t fallout further. Looking for a bullish break through for the week.

A break below 12373 would be a short term bearish signal for the Nasdaq100.

S&P500

S&P500 slightly weaker as it consist of banking stocks in the index which is dragging the index down. Currently at some congestion which is the horizontal line, downtrend line and the moving average. A break above the 4000 psychological could see S&P500 move higher to the 4100 level. We remain bullish for this week as market tries to stabilize and absorb the bad news around. Support at 3919 and  a break below that might signal more downside to 3811.

HSI

Something interest that we are seeing on the HSI is that its up 3 days in  a row, a rare sight for the last few months. Gaining some momentum on the upside BUT currently facing a few resistance as drawn from the above. A good break above 20,120 could see the HSI push up to 20700 if not we could see HSI consolidate for awhile. Optimistic about a break above this resistance! Support at 19733.

STI

STI which is almost 40% made up of our three local banks largely takes direction from the movement from the banks. Despite the banking crisis we do see our banks hold up pretty well. As our banks are on the safer side, investors are still confident in our banks. For this week, with an increase in interest rates, we might still see a move up after it cross 3225. A move towards 3262 is possible for this week as market tries to find its footing.

If you got any questions as always feel free to drop us a message.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

12th March, 2023, 10:54 PM

It was a disappointing week with Fed’s powell coming up with a hawkish tone that interest rate might continue to go up higher and longer. That sent the markets diving and to add salt to the wound, silicon valley bank (SVB) collapsed over a few days and many are concern over the ripple effect that it might have. Crypto bank silvergate also announced liquidation which added to the chaos. Overall, it has been a tough week ever since Fed’s statement.

Core CPI data another important data which market will be looking closely at to see if Fed will really raise interest rates by 0.5% in the next meeting. Expectations are rising for a 0.5% rise as inflation data is starting to point on an upside.

The Greed and Fear index is returning to extreme fear and we could see a rebound coming soon but with the rebound it will probably attractive shortist and people who needs to cut loss, hence any rebound will be met with resistance.

STI

STI continues to trend down as banks lead the downfall. As Fed continues to pressure the markets and with the fallout of SVB, our local banks also took a hit. We might see STI fall to the next support level of 3150 before planning our next move. Currently the downtrend line is also acting as a resistance. Waiting for a base to be formed first.

HSI

We can’t get the chart for the HSI out but after Fed’s meeting last week, we do see HSI following US with the selloff and with negative sentiments around we could still see HSI selling off a little more. Once again the sentiments has shifted and until we know how bad the fallout for the SVB is and how the CPI data next week is, any rebound will be met with short sellers. We did have some long positions when HSI pulled back and are we going to sell these? No! But we’re not adding more as yet till we see markets stablize a little more. No hurry for now.

As market is in a turmoil, head over to our Facebook for more updates on the US markets.

Stay safe and its the school holidays this week!

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy

 

 

The Week Ahead March 2023 – [STI, HSI, NASDAQ & S&P]

5th March, 2023, 2:58 PM

As per last week’s update, we mentioned that markets were due for a rebound after coming down so much. The S&P500 touched the 200ma and the 38% Fibo retracement level which gave support for a rebound! What to look out for this week? Fed Chair testifies this week, once again market will look to what he has to say and if there is a chance of less aggressive interest rate hike and less hawkish statements. This could then give rise to another leg up.

Another to note, towards the end of the week, the usual NFP and IJC will also take spotlight as to how inflation might be.

And lastly, China’s “Two Sessions” is an annual parliamentary meeting that gathers delegates from across China to discuss and approve national priorities. China is also set to release its annual targets for GDP growth, inflation and employment. The meeting could last about 2 weeks. What’s interesting is that China tends to gain after the NPC meeting. Are you positioned for that?

 

HSI

 

HSI came to our near term support and bounced off and even broke through the downtrend line which has been resisting it. Volume came in as short sellers looked to cover while long traders took the chance to build their positions. As we been advocating, take the downside for the HSI to add in your long term positions. With this break, we might see the index trend higher in the coming weeks. The hang seng index could still do a re-test of the lower band of 20,110 and then start to move up towards 21,353. Hope you have added some long term positions! Baidu, Tencent is leading the charge!

Watch out for the NPC meeting that is currently taking place too. It could give clues to which sector to be focusing on.

STI

STI was the only index that didn’t rebound, but we could be looking at some rebound this week as banks are also nearing their support. The immediate support for STI is at 3220 then 3181. We’re looking more for a rebound rather than shorting now. As banks make a big part of the STI, a move upwards could see it pull the STI up.

Its a big week ahead and things are looking up! Head over to our Facebook to read up more on the S&P500 and Nasdaq100. You don’t want to miss this.

Yours

Humbly

Kelwin & Roy